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Handling uncertainty in weather and climate prediction, with application to health, agronomy, hydrology, energy and economics









Kavli Royal Society Centre, Chicheley Hall, Newport Pagnell, Buckinghamshire, MK16 9JJ


Theo Murphy international scientific meeting organised by Professor Tim Palmer FRS

Event details

This meeting follows on from the 2010 Anniversary Discussion Meeting on “Handling Uncertainty in Science” but with a focus on weather and climate prediction and downstream applications. How is uncertainty represented in weather and climate prediction? How reliable are representations of uncertainty? How can decision makers in weather and climate sensitive sectors make useful decisions in the light of uncertain input? Are current ensemble weather and climate prediction systems useful for decision making across a variety of application sectors?  How should probability forecasts be presented to the public? 

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Event organisers

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Schedule of talks


19 talks Show detail Hide detail

An '80% chance of confusion', or can the public make use of probabilistic weather forecasts

Liz Stephens, University of Bristol

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Tracey Brown, Sense about Science

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Climate adaptation: learning to live with uncertainty

Professor Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds

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Climate and food: adapting in the face of uncertainty

Professor Andy Challinor, University of Leeds

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Climate change and public health

Dr Jeremy Hess, Emory University Department of Emergency Medicine

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Climate forecasting and health

Dr Andy Morse, University of Liverpool

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Climate models: fit for what purpose?

Professor Judith Curry, Georgia Tech, Atlanta

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Climate science and the humanitarian sector

Professor Dominic Kniveton, University of Sussex

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Ensemble prediction of weather and its impact

Mr Ken Mylne, Met Office

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Probabilistic predictions without probabilities

Professor Leonard Smith, London School of Economics

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Sense about science: making sense of uncertainty

Professor Paul Hardaker, FInstP, FRMetS, CMet

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Sustainability through hazard anticipation and mitigation

Professor Peter J Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

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The value of probabilistic weather forecasts to the commodity markets

Dr Warwick Norton, PCE Investors

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Uncertainty and understanding: Some approaches for making climate science useful and enabling direct dialogue between the providers and users of climate science

Emma Visman, Humanitarian Futures Programme and NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellow, Kings College London

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Using or refusing uncertainty information in energy applications

Dr Renate Hagedorn, Deutscher Wetterdienst

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Weather forecasting at the BBC

Liz Howell, Head of BBC Weather

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Weather forecasts and macroeconomic forecasts: a comparative study

Dr Reason Machete, University of Reading

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Weathering the drought: Building resilience in the face of uncertainty

Dr Rosalind Cornforth, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading

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Weather prediction and hydrology

Dr Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF

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Handling uncertainty in weather and climate prediction, with application to health, agronomy, hydrology, energy and economics Kavli Royal Society Centre, Chicheley Hall Newport Pagnell Buckinghamshire MK16 9JJ
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