Chairs
Professor Sheila Bird OBE, Edinburgh University and MRC Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University, UK
Professor Sheila Bird OBE, Edinburgh University and MRC Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University, UK
Sheila Macdonald Bird FMedSci FRSE is a Scottish biostatician whose assessment of misuse of statistics in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and BMJ series ‘Statistics in Question’ led to statistical guidelines for contributors to medical journals. Bird led the Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistical Initiative in support of AIDS/HIV studies in Scotland, as part of which she and Dr A. Graham Bird pioneered Willing Anonymous HIV Surveillance (WASH) studies in prisons.
Record linkage studies in Scotland were central to Bird’s work (with others) on the late sequelae of Hepatitis C virus infection and on the morbidity and mortality of opioid addiction. Her team first quantified the very high risk of drugs-related death in the fortnight after prison-release, in response to which Bird and Hutchinson proposed a prison-based randomized controlled trial of naloxone, the opioid antagonist, for prisoners-on-release who had a history of heroin injection. Bird introduced the Royal Statistical Society’s statistical seminars for journalists and awards for statistical excellence in journalism. She is the first female statistician to have been awarded four medals by the Royal Statistical Society.
09:00-09:05
Welcome by the Royal Society and lead organiser
09:05-09:45
The UK State Pension age review and demographic uncertainty
Colin Wilson, Government Actuary's Department, UK
Abstract
The 2017 review of State Pension age included an independent report (the "Cridland report") and projections of life expectancy by the Government Actuary. A particular feature of the latter was an indication of alternative scenarios reflecting some of the uncertainty in future longevity. Since these reports an apparent slowdown in longevity improvements seems to have crystallised, highlighting the importance of acknowledging the degree of uncertainty inherent in longevity projections. This session explains how the review allowed for uncertainty and some possible implications.
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Colin Wilson, Government Actuary's Department, UK
Colin Wilson, Government Actuary's Department, UK
Colin Wilson is Deputy Government Actuary. In this role his responsibilities include strategy and risk management for the Government Actuary’s Department, overseeing business development and the technical standards applied to all GAD’s work, and leading GAD’s consulting services in insurance, investment, modelling and risk. Prior roles include senior consultant at financial risk consultancy Barrie & Hibbert and director of quantitative research at M&G, the investment arm of Prudential.
Colin is a Past President of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and a former chair of the actuarial profession’s Finance, Investment & Risk Management Board and member of the council of the Institute for Quantitative Investment Research. In 2012 he was awarded the Chartered Enterprise Risk Actuary title as a thought leader in the field.
Colin has a maths degree from Trinity College, Cambridge. Before training to be an actuary, he worked as a mathematician for a software consultancy, undertaking all kinds of quantitative work, mainly in the defence market.
09:45-10:30
Mortality Estimation and Forecasting: Models, Methods and Issues
Professor Jon Forster, University of Southampton, UK
Abstract
The Royal Society has a long association with mortality estimation dating back to the original development of the subject by John Graunt, presented to the Society in the seventeenth century. Mortality forecasting, an essential component in the valuation of pension liabilities, has a much more recent heritage. Modern forecasting methods are typically based on stochastic models and allow realistic quantification of uncertainty and, where appropriate, the incorporation of expert opinion. This talk will present a selective review of model-based mortality forecasting approaches. Key issues in mortality forecasting will be considered, including cohort variation, smoothing, sparse data and the potential for borrowing strength by jointly modelling (sub)populations. In light of recent UK data exhibiting relatively weak mortality improvements, the question of how reactive forecasts should be to apparent shifts in observed mortality experience will also be discussed.
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Professor Jon Forster, University of Southampton, UK
Professor Jon Forster, University of Southampton, UK
Jon Forster is Professor of Statistics and Head of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Southampton. In July 2019, he will move to the University of Warwick. He has a BA in Mathematics and Diploma in Mathematical Statistics from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Nottingham. He is co-author of Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics (Vol 2b: Bayesian Inference) and was awarded the Royal Statistical Society's Guy Medal in Bronze in 1999. He has published widely in statistical methodology and applications in various fields. As a member of the ESRC Centre for Population Change, his recent research has focussed on statistical approaches to demographic estimation and forecasting. He has served on the Council and Executive Committee of the Royal Statistical Society, and was chair of the UK Committee of Professors of Statistics from 2007-2010.
11:00-11:45
Quantitative easing impacts - what may be the endgame?
Baroness Ros Altmann CBE, House of Lords, UK
Abstract
For the past ten years, long-term bond yields have remained exceptionally low, which has significantly impacted pensions. Pension liabilities have been artificially inflated by unconventional central bank ‘quantitative easing' (QE) policies, leading to rising deficits and increasing annuity costs. QE has focussed on driving long rates lower, by purchasing sovereign and other bonds with newly created money. This unprecedented monetary policy experiment has had a number of side-effects and the ultimate impacts are not yet known. Having bought significant proportions of fixed income issuance in order to provide artificial economic stimulus, what next? How might Quantitative Tightening play out in markets and what does this mean for pensions?
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Baroness Ros Altmann CBE, House of Lords, UK
Baroness Ros Altmann CBE, House of Lords, UK
Ros Altmann is the UK’s leading independent pensions expert, with over 35 years’ experience in all aspects of pensions. She is currently chair of pension fintech firm pensionsync and an adviser to Huntswood Group and SalaryFinance. She is a visiting professor at LSE and sits as a Conservative Peer in the House of Lords.
Ros was UK Minister of State for Pensions from 2015 to 2016. She was the UK Government’s Business Champion for Older Workers from 2014 to 2015 and was Director General of over-50s specialists Saga from 2010 to 2013. Ros was awarded a CBE in the Queen’s Birthday Honours in 2014 for services to Pensioners and Pension Provision
For many years, Ros has championed pensions justice and led a successful campaign to help 150,000 people receive compensation when their occupational pension schemes collapsed. Her work was instrumental in setting up the system of UK pension protection. She appears regularly in the media and writes and comments on economics, pensions, later life and consumer matters. Ros has won numerous awards, including Pensions Personality of the Year (twice), Industry Guru of the Year, Women in Public Life Award and Lifetime Achievement in Pensions.
Initially working as an academic analysing occupational pensions and pensioner income, she then began a City career managing pension fund assets. She ran the international equities investment operations at Chase Manhattan Bank, London and was a Director at N.M. Rothschild and then at NatWest. After having her children, she set up an independent consultancy, advising governments, the pensions industry, and pension funds on policy and investment strategy, including sitting on several pension fund boards and investment committees.
Ros has a Ph.D. in Economics from London School of Economics and was a Kennedy Scholar at Harvard. She has two honorary doctorates awarded for her work on pension investment from Westminster University Business School and Newcastle University.
11:45-12:30
Intergenerational fairness: statistical analysis, assumptions & actuarial models
Professor Jane Hutton, University of Warwick, UK
Abstract
Intergenerational fairness is an important and ancient concept in society and government. With respect to pensions, intergenerational fairness as well as fairness to women of a certain age have been debated when considering changes in state pension age.
Funded defined benefit schemes which are estimated to have deficits are required to impose deficit recovery payments or change benefits. Current members pay not only for their own future pensions, but also for their predecessors' (and their own) accrued entitlements. It is often assumed that this means younger people paying for older people. However, older generations' pensions contributions have provided productive capital investment and infrastructure used by all ages. Strict intergenerational 'fairness' within a scheme might neglect wider social balance.
Actuarial models require assumptions in order to estimate assets, liabilities, life expectancy and other demographic factors. Multiple assumptions biased away from statistically valid estimates can substantially increase an estimated deficit. Consequences of these assumptions affect not only the particular scheme's stakeholders, but wider society. Money used for deficit recovery payments is diverted away from business investment and dividends. A large estimated deficit can bankrupt a company, and put many people out of work. If pension contributions are tax-exempt, the government's income is reduced.
Assumptions underlying actuarial models are not merely economic or statistical.
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Professor Jane Hutton, University of Warwick, UK
Professor Jane Hutton, University of Warwick, UK
Jane has worked in applied statistics with special interests in survival analysis, meta-analysis and non-random data for over three decades. She held a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award, 2013-2017. She received a Suffrage Science Maths and Computing Award in 2016 in celebration of her scientific achievement and ability to inspire others. She was given a Rob Kempton Award by the International Biometric Society 2016 for her capacity building work with the African Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Jane has long-term collaborations in cerebral palsy and epilepsy. Her work in life expectancy has had a substantial effect on the size of awards in medico-legal cases. Her work in epilepsy has influenced international guidelines on anti-epileptic drugs.
Jane has written extensively on ethics and philosophy of statistics, and contributed to Research Council ethics guidelines. She has published over 120 articles on statistical methods, medical research and ethics.
Jane is a non-executive director and trustee of USS, November 2015 to October 2019.