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Overview

Science+ meeting organised by Professor David Tuckett, Dr David Good and Professor Leonard Smith.

In this meeting, the plan is to focus on 'real life' decision-making in government, business and the Third Sector – decisions such as those about climate mitigation and preserving our environment; policy priorities in health and education; innovation, increasing productivity and new product design; organisational and regulatory innovation; when and how to intervene in humanitarian or other crises; how to maintain cyber and other forms of security; what macroeconomic policies to use to maximise the wellbeing of citizens; how to minimize social and mental discontent; etc.

We conceive decisions of this type and many of the other vital ones confronting us as made in a framework of Radical Uncertainty. It means that, at the time decision-makers decide what to do, they may reasonably be able to imagine some of the different outcomes of their actions but can neither know nor specify the full range of possibilities nor calculate the likelihood that the one they desire will eventuate. Moreover, as many such decisions have to be made and cannot be delayed (because not making them is a decision), decision-makers face an additional challenge – how to build commitment to an uncertain course (or be paralysed) and how to monitor and adjust as plans unfold through time.  

Within this Radical Uncertainty framework, in discussion between decision-makers and scientists from across a wide academic spectrum, we want to test whether by re-evaluating prevailing analytic approaches to decision-making, mostly based on probabilistic reasoning, we can offer better decision support. A guiding idea is that uncertainty is an opportunity to be embraced as well as to be feared and avoided. Decision-making under uncertainty will generate emotions attached to approach or avoidance. One proposition is that it is time to talk both about the facilitating role of emotion in human decision-making and to recognise the costs of ignoring feelings. 

In the panel sessions during the conference, we will use the Radical Uncertainty framework proposed to: 

  • Discuss the experience of a group of very senior decision-makers (Panel 1).
  • Debate some of the core academic approaches to decision-making coming from cognitive science, mathematics, statistics and operational research (Panel 2). 
  • Hear about some new contemporary research into social and affective neuroscience and 'conviction narrative theory' (Panel 3)
  • Discuss several pilot projects aimed at helping decision-makers in Whitehall and elsewhere to confront radical uncertainty (Panel 4).
  • Think about the core questions that further research needs to address and how research funding and institutions might need to adapt to make it possible (Concluding dialogue).

The schedule of sessions and speaker biographies are available below.

Attending this event

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Enquiries: contact the Scientific Programmes team

Organisers

Schedule


Chair

09:00-09:30
Introduction
09:30-10:30
Panel discussion 1: Real world decision making in government, business and the economy

Abstract

To what extent is radical uncertainty a regular feature of the decision-making context in government and business? What is the essence of the sorts of decision-making challenges that have to be faced? How is ambivalence and contest recognised and handled? How is information processed? What is the role for quantification, formal modelling, AI and experimentation? What are the resistances? How are opportunities missed? What goes wrong? How can mistakes or paralysis be prevented? How far is useful feedback available? When is groupthink operative and how might it be avoided? What might be helpful? The speakers will provide their own views and examples and more.

Speakers

10:30-11:00
Coffee
11:00-12:30
Panel discussion continued

Speakers


Chair

13:30-15:00
Panel discussion 2: When quantification and analysis can help and how to use it

Abstract

Thinking about the 'radical uncertainty' characteristics of decisions faced by government, business and the third sector mentioned so far, to what extent can questions about what to do be answered and options calculated with recourse to current scientific analysis and model-making? What support tools are available and how should they be used? How far is existing knowledge of how humans make these kinds of decisions relevant? How should modelling approaches be adjusted in the light of available action sets? Do we have knowledge about how things go wrong and how we might be able to avoid that?  Can quantitative research skills be mixed with research understanding? How they are used in practice? How can we make current research into decision-making relevant for practice?

Speakers

15:00-15:30
Tea
15:30-17:00
Panel discussion continued

Speakers


Chair

09:00-10:30
Panel discussion 3: The role of social and affective neuroscience, and emotions and narratives in human decision-making

Abstract

Thinking about the challenges of making radically uncertain decisions, usually in groups, what can neuroscience tell us about how we can meet them? What do we see? What do we recall? How do we anticipate and plan? How do we manage failure? How do human brains allow us to imagine the future? What is the role of emotion in the brain? Are we cooperative? How do we process information? How do we judge whom and what we trust? Is there a sense in which we can say there are narratives in the brain? What might be the role of narratives in acting to implement plans? 

Speakers

10:30-11:00
Coffee
11:00-12:00
Panel discussion continued

Speakers


Chair

13:00-14:30
Panel discussion 4: Confronting radical uncertainty in practice: pilot projects

Abstract

How do decision makers confront the uncertainties they face when they are asked to try to prevent humanitarian or other crises, imagine and prepare for future risks, decide whether it not to deploy resources before an emergency has happened, create processes for building and planning that make infrastructure resilient to future events, etc? What new ideas flowing from a radical uncertainty perspective are useful and worth exploring? Can we discern any general principles? Speakers will describe pilot projects designed in collaboration with the Cabinet Office and Humanitarian charities.

Speakers

14:30-15:00
Tea
15:00-16:00
Panel discussion continued

Speakers

16:00-17:00
Concluding dialogue: requirements for a cross disciplinary research agenda in the light of recent crises

Speakers