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Decarbonising UK energy: effective technology and policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future

04 - 06 October 2017 09:00 - 17:00

Science+ meeting organised in partnership with the British Academy and Royal Academy of Engineering by Professor John Shepherd CBE FRS, Professor Corinne Le Quéré FRS, Professor Cameron Hepburn, Nick Winser CBE FREng and Professor Richard Parker CBE FREng.

Download the workshop report (PDF).

The UNFCCC Conference in Paris reached agreement to hold global warming to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”, meaning that global net greenhouse gas emission must be reduced to zero before 2100. The implications of the Paris Agreement goals, and the magnitude of achieving them while maintaining energy security, are not yet at all widely understood. This meeting will bring together scientists, engineers, social science experts and policy-makers to discuss the need for decarbonisation of the UK energy supply, the technology and policy options for achieving this, the consequences of doing so, and incentives that may be necessary.

Recorded audio of the presentations will be available on this page within a month after this meeting has taken place. The schedule of talks and speaker biographies is available below. 

Science+ meetings

This event is the inaugural Royal Society Science+ meeting. Science+ meetings bring together pure science and a ‘+’ element. The additional ‘+’ element is formed from areas which build on, or function alongside science, for example, policy or public health.

Enquiries: Contact the Scientific Programmes team.

Organisers

  • Professor John Shepherd CBE FRS, University of Southampton, UK

    John Shepherd is a Professorial Research Fellow in Earth System Science in the National Oceanography Centre at the University of Southampton. He has worked on a wide range of environmental issues, including the transport and deposition of atmospheric sulphur dioxide, the dispersion of tracers in the deep ocean, the assessment and control of radioactive waste disposal in the sea, the assessment and management of marine fish stocks, and the ocean’s role in climate change.  He was the first Director of the Southampton Oceanography Centre from 1994-1999, and from 2001-10 was a Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1999 and awarded a CBE in 2010. He was a member of the DEFRA Science Advisory Council for seven years and chaired the DECC Science Advisory Group from 2009 to 2013. He has been involved as a member or reviewer in several of the Society’s science policy studies and chaired the study on Geoengineering the Climate in 2009. More recently he has been involved in preparing several public documents on climate science including the Royal Society Summary of the Science and the recent joint RS/NAS briefing document.

  • Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRS, University of East Anglia, UK

    Professor Corinne Le Quéré FRS CBE, is Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia, where she conducts research on the interactions between the carbon cycle and climate change, particularly those mediated by the world’s oceans. She leads two projects in the NERC’s programme on the Role of the Southern Ocean in the Earth System (RoSES), one examining Southern Ocean CO2 variability in recent decades, one exploring its evolution this century. More broadly, she spearheaded the development of marine carbon-cycle models with new ways to represent plankton diversity and ecology. She also led for over a decade the annual update of the ‘global carbon budget’, an international effort to keep track of global carbon emissions and their fate in the environment, and authored three assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

  • Professor Cameron Hepburn, University of Oxford & London School of Economics, UK

    Cameron Hepburn is the Director of the Economics of Sustainability Programme, based at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School. He is also Professor of Environmental Economics at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, a Fellow at New College, Oxford, and a Professorial Research Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics. 

    He has published widely on energy, resources and environmental challenges across a range of disciplines, including engineering, biology, philosophy, economics, public policy and law, drawing on his degrees in law, engineering and doctorate in economics.  He is on the editorial board of Environmental Research Letters and is the managing editor of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Cameron’s research is often referred to in the printed press, and he has been interviewed on television and radio in various countries.

    Cameron provides advice on energy and climate policy to government ministers (e.g. China, India, UK and Australia) and international institutions (e.g. OECD, UN organisations) around the world.  Cameron began his professional life with McKinsey, and has since had an entrepreneurial career, co-founding three successful businesses – Aurora Energy Research, Climate Bridge and Vivid Economics – and investing in several other social enterprises, such as Purpose and Apolitical.  He also serves as a trustee for Schola Cantorum of Oxford. 

  • Nick Winser CBE FREng, Chair, Energy Systems Catapult

    Energy Systems Catapult Chair since 2015, Nick Winser was appointed Chair of the Advisory Board for the Energy Revolution ISCF programme in 2018 and served on the Advisory Panel for the Cost of Energy Review in 2017. He is also a member of a COP26 Advisory Group and the Net Zero Expert Group which advises the Secretary of State.

    These appointments followed a 30-year career in the energy sector which included UK and European CEO of the Board of the National Grid, President of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (2013-2015) and CIGRE UK Chair.

    A member of the IET, serving as its President in 2017/18, Nick maintains a keen interest in the organisation’s work and sits on the Nominations & Succession Committee. 

    Chair of the MS Society and a former member of the Board of the Kier Group, Nick also has a professional interest in both the charity and construction sector.

  • Professor Richard (Ric) Parker CBE FREng

    Recently retired, Ric is a Special Advisor working in the areas of technology strategy and technology transfer. He works with BP, Rolls-Royce, A*Star Singapore and others. He is Chairman of the EU Clean Sky Joint Undertaking, a €4Bn aviation research programme. Ric is a Distinguished Visitor at the National Physical Laboratory, UK. He is a Visiting Professor in Mechanical Engineering at Imperial College, a Visiting Professor in Aeronautical Engineering at Loughborough University and an Honorary Professor in Materials Engineering at Birmingham University. Ric was Director of Research & Technology, Rolls-Royce Group from January 2001 to March 2016. He joined Rolls-Royce as a Chief Research Scientist in 1978, and has held a variety of engineering leadership and general management posts. Ric has been instrumental in influencing the aviation research strategies for the UK and EU. He has also been an active promoter of industry/university collaboration, supporting and extending Rolls-Royce’s University Technology Centres world-wide. Ric was voted European CTO of the Year in 2014. He was made Commander of the Order of British Empire (CBE) in 2013 for 'Services to Engineering'. In 2016 he received the Royal Aeronautical Society’s Gold Medal.

Schedule

Chair

Professor John Shepherd CBE FRS, University of Southampton, UK

09:10 - 09:40 Keynote opening talk: The Paris Agreement and its implications

The Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS

09:40 - 10:10 Current emissions, global prospects and UK carbon budgets

Global emissions of carbon dioxide need to peak and decline rapidly to limit climate change to levels consistent with the ambition of the Paris Agreement. The growth in CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and industrial processes has been near zero in the past three years, after a decade of rising by 2.5% per year on average. This presentation will unpack the reasons behind the ups and downs of global CO2 emissions in recent decades. It will show how trends in China are largely behind both the rapid rise in global emissions of the 2000s and their recent stalling during 2014-2016, but that decarbonisation of energy systems is set in motion in over 25 industrial economies. The prospect for peak emissions in the coming years will be put in context of these recent trends.

Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRS, University of East Anglia, UK

10:10 - 10:30 Pathways to carbon neutrality and negative emissions

To restrict the rise in global mean temperatures to between 1.5 and 2C above the pre-Industrial level will require not only steep reductions in emissions, but also the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A wide range of techniques to achieve this end have been proposed, but there is currently an absence of mechanisms that would incentivise research, development, demonstration and deployment. This talk will explore the range of techniques, their potential and barriers to their deployment.

Tim Kruger, University of Oxford and Origen Power, UK

10:30 - 11:00 Discussion
11:00 - 11:30 Coffee

Chair

Professor Richard (Ric) Parker CBE FREng

11:30 - 11:50 Energy security and usage forecasts
11:50 - 12:10 Energy futures outlook

“BP regularly analyses trends in energy supply and demand, underpinned by our view of the underlying technologies. We also publish analyses such as our Energy Outlook and Technology Outlook, as a basis for discussing with a range of stakeholders the changes that could shape our industry and others. 

Today, the pace of change in the energy sector is accelerating. The world faces the dual challenge of meeting society’s need for more energy, while at the same time reducing emissions. As scientists and engineers we recognise in particular the urgency of this challenge – and we intend to be part of the solution.

We will share our most recent published global analyses as a basis for exploring key trends in the energy sector, and how these relate to possible solutions in a UK context.”

David Eyton, BP, UK

12:10 - 12:30 The Energy System – where do we go from here?

The production and consumption of energy crosses multiple vectors, time-scales and geographies, involving technologies, markets and behavioural factors. It is practically a truism to call for ‘whole system’ thinking when considering policy interventions, and yet interactions between actors within the system are hard to realign so that they reflect such an approach. Barriers based on the current paradigm could slow down the transition to a low carbon society: customers pay for units of gas, electricity or petrol; support for low carbon is viewed as a subsidy relative to the cost of fossil fuel without externalities; decentralised or distributed systems are emerging in a piecemeal fashion; funding for technological innovation is often driven by short term goals. Decarbonising heat and integrating ever greater amounts of variable renewable electricity will be the big energy system challenges for the 2020s – this requires joined-up long-term energy and innovation policy that is awaited.

Dr Jonathan Radcliffe, University of Birmingham, UK

12:30 - 13:00 Discussion

Chair

The Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS

14:00 - 14:20 Intelligent mobility and the decarbonisation of transport

The electrification of road and rail transportation promises to be one of the major contributions to the transport network. However, the impact of IT and communication technologies may have equally profound consequences on the way people and goods move around. It is important that we think carefully about the future of transport to ensure we optimize the outcomes for people, businesses and the planet.

Paul Campion, Transport Systems Catapult, UK

14:20 - 14:40 Aviation, shipping and the Paris Agreement

The aviation and shipping sectors have drawn research interest over the past decade for three principal reasons. Firstly, emissions released in international airspace and in international waters, even if directly linked to the activities of ‘Annex 1’ citizens, were omitted from the national targets set for Annex 1 nations within the Kyoto Protocol. Secondly, the international organisations presented with a mandate to develop mitigation measures targeting these sectors – the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) – have made extremely slow process compared with other sectors. Finally, whilst frequently coupled within the climate change debate, the aviation and shipping sectors face very different challenges and opportunities in delivering meaningful mitigation efforts (Bows-Larkin 2014). With both sectors estimated to be contributing a share of annual global CO2 emissions equivalent to one of the top ten emitting nations, constraining further CO2 growth is an essential research area. The long lead-times for technological deployment governed by the capital intensive nature of aircraft, ships and related infrastructure, raises serious questions around the ability of these sectors to be able to respond, at least technically, to constraints posed by 1.5°C  and 2°C carbon budgets. In this presentation, the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature goals are interpreted for the aviation and shipping sectors, assuming these sectors deliver a “proportionate response”. The constrained proportional budget is then contrasted with existing industry projections to illustrate the gap between the Paris ambition and industry expectations. Finally, technical insights around available biofuel options, coupled with an interrogation of more radical decarbonisation possibilities and their deployment timeframes, including virtual communication, is synthesised to draw conclusions regarding the ability of these sectors to ‘fit’ within the Paris Agreement constraints. 

Bows-Larkin, A. 2014. All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy. Climate Policy, 1-22.

Professor Alice Larkin, University of Manchester, UK

14:40 - 15:00 Discussion
15:00 - 15:30 Tea

Chair

Professor Sir David Read FRS, The University of Sheffield, UK

15:30 - 15:50 Land sector pathways to climate change mitigation

Better stewardship of land is essential to achieving Paris Climate Agreement goals of holding warming well below 2°C. A comprehensive assessment of 20 different “natural climate solutions” spanning forests, grasslands, wetlands and agriculture has shown that these strategies can globally deliver more than 11 Gt CO2e per year of greenhouse gas mitigation by 2030 at effective CO2 prices of 2e. Ambitious action on all 20 strategies could cumulatively deliver 37% of the cost-effective mitigation needed by 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming below 2°C, while delivering widespread co-benefits. One half of that opportunity represents carbon sequestration, and one third of the total is available at 2e. This more comprehensive assessment underscores the critical opportunities to restore forests, improve commercial forestry and agricultural practices, and conserve sensitive wetland ecosystems both globally and in the UK, as well as supporting more conventional global climate priorities such as reducing tropical deforestation.

Justin Adams, Nature Conservancy, UK

15:50 - 16:10 Capturing atmospheric CO2 with crops and rocks: from global to national scales

Limiting future climate change requires urgently decreasing CO2 emissions through decarbonisation of energy supplies and developing approaches for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere.  Biogeochemical improvement of croplands by amending soils with crushed fast-reacting silicate rocks may represent a CDR strategy that also improves crop production, protection from pests and diseases, and restores soil health.  It could, therefore, generate strong financial incentives for widespread adoption in an agricultural sector where rapid deployment at scale is feasible.  Recycling massive quantities of silicate waste materials could help meet the rock requirements in a cost-effective manner.  Nations that contributed most to the cumulative 565 ± 55 GtC release since the pre-industrial era (1870) that contributed most to global warming, including China, USA, India and European countries, mainly Germany, France and the UK, appear best placed to undertake the greatest share of atmospheric carbon clean-up in this way.

Professor David Beerling, University of Sheffield, UK

16:10 - 16:30 Changing energy systems in the UK

Drax Power Station has shifted from being the largest carbon emitter in the UK to the biggest decarbonisation project in Europe, now producing 17% of the UK’s renewable electricity. It has done this by converting three of its six generators to run on sustainable biomass rather than coal. Biomass, alongside other renewables such as wind and solar, has led to a rapid decarbonisation of the UK electricity system and Andy Koss will explore the pros and cons of this innovative technology. He will also talk about the other services that biomass-fired power stations can provide to the electricity system as dispatchable, fossil-fuelled power stations are increasingly replaced by intermittent, renewable technologies.

Andy Koss, Drax Power, UK

16:30 - 17:00 Discussion

Chair

Professor Richard (Ric) Parker CBE FREng

09:00 - 09:30 Decarbonising heat: the potential for steam methane reforming as an enabling technology

Historically the energy sectors have been siloed, but this is changing at a rapid pace. Electricity generation and transportation fuels are the first to undergo once in a generation shifts in production, distribution and business models, but heat is rapidly moving up the agenda. This talk will contrast the drivers behind the changes in the different sectors, and look at what lessons for policy and investment in new technologies can be gleaned from previous introductions of environmental related legislation. It will then look at the options for decarbonised heat in domestic and industrial heating duties, and reflect on the status and opportunities for current and next generation steam methane reforming technologies.

Iain Martin, Johnson Matthey, UK

09:30 - 09:50 Buildings and networks

Providing space heating to our buildings causes a substantial proportion of our greenhouse gas emissions and if we are to hit our environmental targets at reasonable cost we will need to deploy a range of new technologies to reengineer this part of our energy system. We expect the best set of solutions to be heavily influenced by the local context and understanding customers’ wishes and how they will interact with new products and services will be crucial. Reducing the energy demand for space heating will also be important. Likely technologies include: heat pumps; heat networks using waste heat; CH; hydrogen; and biofuels. The very high peak demands for heating will also make heat storage innovation highly attractive. The best choices will depend on the heat resources available and the existing energy infrastructure in each area. Furthermore, the changes in how we provide customers with heat, the electrification of transport, and the widespread deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaics to decarbonize the electricity system will result in dramatic changes to the amount of energy that we need to move around on our energy networks.

Nick Winser CBE FREng, Chair, Energy Systems Catapult

09:50 - 10:10 Future energy needs and engineering integrity

Regarding the decarbonisation of the world economy by 2050 as a complex civil engineering project, Professor Kelly will show the nugatory and costly progress so far. He will show that solar and wind energy systems lack the productivity of fossil or nuclear fuel systems in terms of energy return on investment, and that widespread adoption of either or both will come with a decrease in overall economic activity, a consequence that has not received adequate attention in previous meetings of this kind. Professor Kelly contends that megacities with 10M people or more, where half of the world’s population will reside in 2050, will not be served by other than fossil or nuclear fuels for most of their energy and electricity needs. Mis-investments in the space will have lasting and damaging consequences, so we must be careful and rigourous.

Professor Michael Kelly FREng FRS, University of Cambridge, UK

10:10 - 10:30 Between a Rock and a Hard Place – options for reducing the carbon emissions associated with the use of cement and concrete

The manufacture of cement and reinforced concrete artefacts accounts for approximately 10% of anthropogenic carbon emissions; some 3 GT/year. This talk will explore the potential impact of some of the options available for reducing these emissions; using non-carbonate feedstocks; using less concrete for the same function; using wastes to partially replace cement; improving the process energy efficiency; using existing concrete better; and extending the service life of components and structures. An optimistic assessment of combining these options suggests that emissions could be reduced by up to 70%, with by far the biggest potential contribution associated with lifespan extension and reuse.

Professor Phil Purnell, University of Leeds, UK

10:30 - 11:00 Discussion
11:00 - 11:30 Coffee

Chair

Henri Winand, AkinovA, UK

11:30 - 11:50 Market-focused UK innovation in fuel cells and H2, as funded by Innovate UK

Innovate UK is the UK Government's innovation agency. Global market opportunities for the products of UK research and Innovations are created by the need for clean, affordable and resilient energy. Commercially-focussed innovations in fuel cells and hydrogen technologies in development by UK business and research communities are in scope for the Energy Catalyst and other Innovate UK competitions. A selection of these innovations will be presented.

Michael Priestnall, Innovate UK

11:50 - 12:10 Green hydrogen and solar to fuels

Harnessing renewable energy sources to drive the synthesis of energy dense fuels and chemical feedstocks has the potential to address several key challenges for reducing CO2 emissions: providing a scalable strategy for energy storage in chemical bonds (the most energy dense storage strategy by mass), providing carbon neutral pathways to sustainable fuels for transport applications and feedstocks for the chemical industry and, where targeted on CO2 reduction to chemicals, providing a market for carbon dioxide utilisation. ‘Green hydrogen’ produced by the electrolysis of water powered by photovoltaics or wind turbines is already being demonstrated in the UK, with significant ongoing cost reductions. In the longer term, rapid scientific progress is being made in directly harnessing sunlight to drive the photolysis of water, and the reduction of carbon dioxide to carbon based fuels. My talk will review recent advances in the science and technology which can enable such pathways, and discuss their future potential.

Professor James Durrant FRS, Imperial College London, Swansea University

12:10 - 12:30 The role of ‘green’ ammonia in decarbonising energy

The main challenge to substitute fossil fuels with renewable energy (RE) sources is the intermittency of the latter. Energy storage (ES) systems have been proposed as a solution to bridge intermittency as they can store RE, and use it when the energy demand is higher than the supply. Several types of ES technologies are available, and they differ in terms of their energy density, charge time, self-discharge, capacity, efficiency and cost. There are two important questions that need to be answered when selecting the most appropriate ES technology for a given problem: the amount of energy that needs to be stored, and the duration distribution of the stored energy. Both of these quantities depend on how well the RE and demand profiles match, but there is little discussion that both short and long term duration ES are needed in most situations. 

We have been studying methods (a) to determine the distribution of short vs long duration storage requirements for different geographical locations, and (b) to size and cost long duration ES technologies. Our research focus has been the production of ‘green’ ammonia (using H2 produced via water electrolysis powered by RE) as opposed to ‘brown’ ammonia (using H2 from steam methane reforming (SMR)). ‘Green’ ammonia can be used as an energy storage vector, but in its current use as raw material for the production of fertilisers could also avoid the large amount of CO2 emissions originating from SMR (an estimated 1.3% of worldwide CO2 emissions). 

The production of ‘green’ ammonia has been technically feasible for many years, but it has not been competitive economically. Recent models indicate that reductions in the cost of RE begin to make it possible to produce ‘green’ ammonia economically, but a competitive ammonia-based ESS would also need to account for the effect of intermittency as it affects the size and operation of the ESS. We have identified a number of key variables that influence the levelised cost of ammonia (LCOA) and have developed a model to quantify the dependence of LCOA with respect to those variables: energy source mix (solar PV, wind and grid), LCOE, electrolyser CAPEX, relative size of the ESS components, and load ramping capabilities for each of those components. 

The talk will also briefly discuss future technologies that will provide further opportunities to reduce the cost of ‘green’ ammonia such as new electrolyser technologies and improved reactor design for ammonia synthesis.

Dr Rene Banares-Alcantara, University of Oxford, UK

12:30 - 13:00 Discussion

Chair

Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith FRS, University of Oxford, UK

14:00 - 14:20 A renewables led transition of the UK energy system – taking stock

Solar and wind have experienced rapid price reductions and global uptake has soared. At home, the UK’s continued year-on-year reduction in GHG emissions has largely been driven by the deployment of renewables in the electricity sector (alongside the switch from coal to gas). With nuclear and CCS falling behind, can we meet our 4th and 5th carbon budgets through continued deployment of renewables alone and what does this imply about the journey to 2050 and beyond?

Jo Coleman, ETI, UK

14:20 - 14:40 Managing carbon to protect atmosphere, ocean and air quality: energy is more than building renewables

Many legal treaties protect the land, subsurface and oceans. Very little protects the atmosphere. Yet fossil energy and biomass extractors, and energy users are able to discharge excessively into common air quality. Reducing emissions through focusing on clean electricity has failed on price against low cost renewables, but has succeeded in stigmatising coal use. However what is needed is a fundamental move to balance extraction of carbon to storage of carbon. That requires more than adjusting electricity with CCS, a revolution is required in heat, and transport. Achieving net-zero carbon accounting around 2050 will require NET storage of already-emitted carbon using biomass, and extracting from air. All these sinks depend on CCS being developed. Optimistic extrapolation of historic CCS construction shows that CO2 storage rates by 2050 will be 10× too slow. Achieving a carbon balance requires sustained unprecedented revolutionary effort to 2110.

Professor Stuart Haszeldine, University of Edinburgh, UK

14:40 - 15:00 Discussion
15:00 - 15:30 Tea
15:30 - 15:50 Batteries included

A decarbonised electricity system that relies on a high penetration of renewables and nuclear to generate electricity will require energy storage. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to energy storage on the grid. There is no silver bullet. Storage is required to operate on different timescales and across a range power levels. Batteries will play their part. They are already in use worldwide delivering ancillary services to power grids. The current technology of choice is the lithium ion battery. The requirements for storage on the grid, the role of different battery technologies, the prospects for cost reduction and the limitations of batteries will be discussed.

Professor Peter Bruce FRS

15:50 - 16:10 Global challenges in the nuclear sector, BREXATOM and new build: what do these mean for nuclear energy’s role in the UK in 2050?

The Nuclear Sector forms a critical industry for the UK, delivering 18% of the nation’s electricity requirements, employing over 65,000 people, and providing supply chain opportunities for companies across the UK and exciting and rewarding science and engineering careers which attract the best graduates. In these uncertain Brexit times we must make sure we give this important sector the boost it needs to keep pace with the rest of the world or we will be left behind. Key countries like China are moving ahead apace with further development of the best of modern nuclear technology. Meanwhile our existing nuclear fleet except for Sizewell B will retire within the next decade: projects beyond Hinkley Point have stalled: the western developed world appears to have great difficulty in financing nuclear projects: we have forgotten that nuclear energy plays a vital role in medicine and in food security and that fast, easy transfer of materials, components and people is essential and at risk with BREXATOM: we are struggling to get the necessary investment in research, development and technology innovation to give us affordable, secure, sustainable nuclear energy for 2050. We need a different approach to develop policy & economic instruments to make it happen: might small modular reactors be a better fit for a future high-renewable mix; should we be jumping a generation of technology and if so what needs to happen to make it so?

Dame Sue Ion GBE FREng FRS

16:10 - 16:40 Discussion
16:40 - 17:00 Overall discussion on technological portfolio

Chair

Lord Ron Oxburgh KBE HonFREng FRS, House of Lords, UK

09:00 - 09:30 Policy for a net zero UK

The UK climate change act already mandates emission reductions of 80% by 2050. The Paris agreement requires eventual 100% reductions, and in 2016, the then energy minister Andrea Leadsom said that the goal of net zero emissions would also be enshrined in UK law. Carbon pricing and innovation policies are critical to achieve these targets, and these will be briefly addressed drawing upon recent work of the World Bank and the Climate Leadership Council. But the final 20% will be far from easy, and more will be required. This paper will also attempt to identify the elements in the set of "Heineken policies" post Brexit - policies which address the sectors that other policies cannot reach.

Professor Cameron Hepburn, University of Oxford & London School of Economics, UK

09:30 - 09:50 Economics, energy policy and innovation

The UK has a unique framework for linking near- to medium-term climate action to long-term goals through the Climate Change Act and the carbon budgeting system. But the Paris Agreement, which includes the aim of balancing emission sources and sinks in the second half of the century, takes ambition to a new level. Seen from this perspective, near-to medium-term policies, for all their challenges and intricacies, are the easy part. We also need policies that open up options for the longer term up to and beyond 2050. Encouraging and enabling innovation is key to meeting this challenge. This presentation will focus on current innovation trends and efforts, globally and in the UK, and assess the extent to which they match up to climate policy aspirations. It will also consider innovation policies and institutional arrangements in the UK. It will end with a short summary of how IPCC will address these issues in the Sixth Assessment Report.

Professor Jim Skea CBE OBE

09:50 - 10:10 Carbon pricing and other climate policies

This presentation will recapitulate the main policies tools available to policy makers in pursuit of a zero-carbon economy.  Most economists consider carbon pricing to be the main policy intervention, but there are different ways of putting a price on carbon, some of which are more palatable politically than others. There is a need for additional policy interventions to encourage clean innovation, promote energy efficiency, overcome barriers clean finance and deal with any unintended socio-economic consequences, for example on fuel poverty or jobs. How these different policies interact is crucial.

Professor Sam Fankhauser, Grantham Research Institute, LSE, UK

10:10 - 10:30 Perverse incentives and outcomes

When dealing with highly complex, interconnected systems, external stimuli do not always produce the outcomes that were originally intended.  This is particularly true in the case of human policy responses to the threat of climate change.  The long-term aim has been to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to acceptable levels, but initial efforts in this direction have been only partially successful.  For example, the effect of energy pricing policies and carbon taxes in Western Europe has been to cause energy-intensive industries to migrate to other parts of the world, and has also created new health and social care issues associated with “fuel poverty”.   Agricultural subsidies for the growth of first-generation biofuel crops have affected the pattern of global food production, with significant ecological and environmental consequences, and little (if any) effect on global carbon dioxide production.  In Britain, financial incentives to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from motor vehicles have produced unforeseen side effects, leading to a complete reappraisal of policy.  And the introduction of intermittent renewable energy sources prior to the availability of adequate energy storage technologies has, on occasions,  led to situations in which energy companies have been paid more to switch off their generators than to produce electricity.   With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that many of these perverse outcomes could (and should) have been anticipated.  A key issue that will be discussed is how to improve the processes of policy-making, so as to minimise the risk of similar errors occurring in the future.

Professor George Smith, University of Oxford, UK

10:30 - 11:00 Discussion
11:00 - 11:30 Coffee

Chair

Professor Jim Watson, UK Energy Research Centre, UK

11:30 - 11:50 Engaging publics: values, practices and energy system change

Energy system transitions are often presented in terms of developing better and more sustainable technologies, or simply a matter of deploying the right economic levers to incentivise change. Social science work has emphasised, however, that publics (as individuals, citizens, and communities) will need to be central to the successful energy transition. Findings are presented from recent major studies exploring how people currently interact with energy systems and how they might view energy systems changes in the future, including social, technical and economic aspects. Through the research we have been able to create a generalised picture of UK public(s) values, criteria and conditions of acceptability people would wish to place upon future energy system change, in both supply and demand. The paper also presents findings on the way current energy systems are embedded in everyday life (often in unremarkable ways) and the associated difficulty of changing people’s practices of energy use over time.

Professor Nick Pidgeon, Cardiff University, UK

11:50 - 12:00 Building public and political support for climate action

Any policy scenario for climate change mitigation must win political and public support, through the democratic system, if it is to be implemented successfully. Whilst many politicians understand the scientific case for climate mitigation, their ability to act depends on building and maintaining public support, whether passive or active. Rebecca will present new research from a collaborative project between Lancaster University and Green Alliance, which investigates how politicians and others can build a mandate for action. The research, based on analysis of political speech and interviews with Members of the UK Parliament, uncovers different strategies that politicians use to make a democratic case. However, it also shows a tendency to ‘tame’ climate change, shying away from discussion of its full social and environmental implications, with some maintaining that it is best not to mention climate at all. Rebecca will conclude with suggestions for ways in which all those advocating climate action can work with elected representatives to build public and political support.

Rebecca Willis, Lancaster University/Green Alliance, UK

12:00 - 12:30 Discussion
13:30 - 14:15 Timeline 1: the immediate future (to 2040)

Juliet Davenport OBE, Good Energy, UK

Professor Paul Ekins OBE, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, UK

Matthew Bell, Frontier Economics, UK

Professor Richard (Ric) Parker CBE FREng

14:15 - 15:00 Timeline 2: the endgame (2050 and beyond)

Professor John Shepherd CBE FRS, University of Southampton, UK

Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith FRS, University of Oxford, UK

Jo Coleman, ETI, UK

Mike Thompson, Committee on Climate Change, UK

15:00 - 15:30 Tea

Chair

Professor Alex Halliday FRS, Vice President (Physical Secretary), the Royal Society

16:00 - 16:30 Panel discussion

Initiatives and incentives to deliver the transition to a carbon-free future.

16:30 - 17:00 Keynote closing talk

Lord Ron Oxburgh KBE HonFREng FRS, House of Lords, UK