This page is archived

Links to external sources may no longer work as intended. The content may not represent the latest thinking in this area or the Society’s current position on the topic.

/ Events

Handling uncertainty in weather and climate prediction, with application to health, agronomy, hydrology, energy and economics

04 - 05 October 2012 09:00 - 17:00

Theo Murphy international scientific meeting organised by Professor Tim Palmer FRS

Event details

This meeting follows on from the 2010 Anniversary Discussion Meeting on “Handling Uncertainty in Science” but with a focus on weather and climate prediction and downstream applications. How is uncertainty represented in weather and climate prediction? How reliable are representations of uncertainty? How can decision makers in weather and climate sensitive sectors make useful decisions in the light of uncertain input? Are current ensemble weather and climate prediction systems useful for decision making across a variety of application sectors?  How should probability forecasts be presented to the public? 

Enquiries: Contact the events team

Organisers

  • Professor Tim Palmer CBE FRS, University of Oxford, UK

    Tim Palmer is a Royal Society Research Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford. Prior to that he was Head of Division at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts where he pioneered the development of ensemble prediction techniques, allowing weather and climate predictions to be expressed in flow-dependent probabilistic terms. Such developments have included the reformulation of sub-grid parametrisations as stochastic rather than deterministic schemes. Over the last 10 years, Tim has been vocal in advocating for much greater dedicated computing capability for climate prediction than is currently available. He has won the top awards of the European and Meteorological Societies, the Dirac Gold Medal of the Institute of Physics, and is a Foreign or Honorary Member of a number of learned societies around the world.