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The causes, consequences and relevance of hyperthermals
Satellite meeting organised by Professor Gavin Foster, Professor Jim Zachos, Professor Dan Lunt and Professor Pincelli Hull.
The hyperthermals that pepper geological records are typically studied in isolation yet they share many similar features that have obvious resonance with our warm future. In this meeting we aim to bring together specialists in various fields to find common ground and thereby improve our understanding of these enigmatic events and, as a result, better understand how the Earth System works when it experiences extreme and rapid warmth.
Attending the event
This meeting has taken place.
Prior to this meeting there was a related discussion meeting (Hyperthermals – rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past), which was held at the Royal Society, London on 25 - 26 September 2017.
Enquiries: Contact the Scientific Programmes team
Schedule
Chair
Professor Gavin Foster, University of Southampton, UK
Professor Gavin Foster, University of Southampton, UK
Gavin is a professor of isotope geochemistry at the University of Southampton. His research is primarily concerned with using novel isotopic techniques to gain insights into how and why the Earth’s climate has changed over geological time. Much of his recent research efforts are focused on using boron isotopes in the calcareous shells of foraminifera to reconstruct the state of the oceanic carbonate system in the geological past. In particular he is interested in the mechanisms responsible for the natural CO2 changes that accompanied the waxing and waning of the ice-sheets throughout the Pleistocene, and the role of CO2 in gradual, and sometimes rapid, climate change during the Cenozoic.
09:15 - 09:35 | Introduction and aims |
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09:35 - 09:50 |
Early Cenozoic hyperthermals and the hydrological cycle: Theory versus observations
The early Eocene hyperthermals, a series of transient global warming events (2 to 5°C, provide a unique opportunity to assess the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to the scale of greenhouse forcing expected over the next several centuries. A growing body of evidence from the most prominent of the hyperthermals, the Paleocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 Ma), points toward a major mode shift in the intensity and patterns of precipitation. Regionally, the shift in hydrology differs notably, with some regions becoming drier, others wetter. In many regions both sedimentologic and paleontologic evidence indicate that precipitation became much more seasonal or episodic in character. In continental fluvial and coastal sections, changes in siliciclastic depositional facies reflect on increased frequency of high-energy events (e.g., extreme flooding), possibly from monsoon-like seasonal rains, and/or from unusually intense and/or sustained extra-tropical storms. In the open ocean, geochemical data, though still relatively sparse, suggests that the sub-tropical ocean became saltier as a consequence of locally reduced precipitation and/or increased evaporation suggestive of increased meridional vapor transport from low to high latitudes. Indeed evidence, from high latitude oceans suggests reduced salinity. New data emerging for subsequent smaller hyperthermals show similar patterns. Such observations are consistent with and thus support general theory on the sensitivity of large-scale vapor transport and regional precipitation intensity to extreme greenhouse warming. Professor James (Jim) C. Zachos, University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC), USA
Professor James (Jim) C. Zachos, University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC), USAJames (Jim) C Zachos is a Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC). He received his PhD in Oceanography from the University of Rhode Island in 1988, was a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Michigan, and a fellow at the University of Cambridge. Zachos’s research primarily focuses on the dynamics of climate and ocean carbon cycle coupling over geologic time, particularly during periods of rapid and extreme change. He has authored/co-authored 115 peer-reviewed publications on topics ranging from Eocene global warming and ocean acidification to Oligocene ice-sheet evolution, and was a contributor to the 2007 IPCC report. He is a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the Geological Society of America, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, and the California Academy of Sciences, and is a recipient of the National Young Investigator, AGU Emiliani, and Humboldt Awards. He is also a member elect (2011) of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. |
09:50 - 10:00 | Discussion |
10:00 - 10:15 |
Ocean anoxia during the PETM
Reconstructions of redox changes in the ocean during the PETM have shown that deoxygenation in its most extreme forms - anoxia and euxinia - were largely restricted to the Arctic Ocean, Peri-Tethys Ocean, and some shallow marine embayments. This geographic distribution of anoxic conditions points towards the importance of paleogeography, basin restriction, and nutrient fluxes as key controls on the occurrence of extreme deoxygenation. These controls are extremely similar to those highlighted as critical drivers of anoxia during the Mesozoic Oceanic Anoxic Events, suggesting that the PETM should be considered in a similar vein to these older hyperthermals. Characterizing the magnitude of marine anoxia during the PETM has been attempted using redox-sensitive isotope systems such as molybdenum and uranium. While useful in the broadest sense, these isotopic systems currently lack the temporal resolution to discern rates of redox change across the event. Furthermore, by homogenizing the entire ocean into a single metric, they miss important nuances of local and regional scale redox changes that might reflect the activity of climatic feedback processes, such as weathering, ocean circulation change, or temperature change. It will be valuable for future studies to understand the magnitude, rate, and relative temporal phasing of redox changes as they are expressed in spatially diverse locations, in order to provide constraints on the heterogeneity of climatically important feedback processes operating during the PETM, and other hyperthermals. Dr Alex Dickson, University of Oxford, UK
Dr Alex Dickson, University of Oxford, UKAlex Dickson obtained his PhD from University College London in 2009, before taking up post-doctoral positions at the Open University and the University of Oxford. His research focuses on understanding the links between climate change and ocean chemistry across timescales of thousands to millions of years during the Phanerozoic. He has a particular interest in using non-traditional isotope systems to track changes in Earth’s biogeochemical cycles. His current research includes tracing changes in ocean redox and nutrient cycling using molybdenum, uranium, rhenium, cadmium and zinc isotopes, and interfacing organic and inorganic geochemical techniques to understand the interactions between metals and organic matter in marine sedimentary deposits. |
10:15 - 10:25 | Discussion |
10:55 - 11:10 |
Temperature extremes and biotic exclusion in the PETM
How hot did it get during the PETM, and what were the consequences for life? This presentation suggests that bias in the proxies and gaps in the records could have led to an underestimate of peak PETM warming. The evidence which suggests that extreme environmental conditions caused a mass die-off of ocean plankton in parts of the tropics, will be updated and some of the implications of this will be considered. Professor Paul Pearson, Cardiff University, UK
Professor Paul Pearson, Cardiff University, UKPaul Pearson is Professor of Geology at Cardiff University, UK. He is interested in palaeoclimate proxies, biotic evolution and stratigraphy, with particular emphasis on the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera from deep sea cores. He has sailed on several occasions with the International Ocean Discovery Program and its predecessors, and has led onshore drilling projects in Tanzania and Indonesia. His interest in the PETM stems from his team’s discovery and recovery of a highly expanded succession through the event in the hemipelagic sediments of southern Tanzania. |
11:10 - 11:20 | Discussion |
11:20 - 11:35 |
Volcanic drivers of the early Cenozoic hyperthermals
The climate history of the early Cenozoic is distinguished by multiple short-lived warming events (hyperthermals) that followed large-scale addition of C-based greenhouse gases into the ocean-atmosphere system. Hyperthermals are recorded in carbonate sedimentary sequences by negative C-isotopic excursions, indicating a biogenic source for the gas emissions. The triggering mechanism for early Cenozoic hyperthermals, however, is poorly understood. Any explanation for their origin should be able to account for their timing, duration, recurring nature and the amount of carbon released. Hypotheses include (i) orbital modulation of methane hydrate disassociation and (ii) production of C-based gases during magma-sediment interactions in the formation of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP). Formation of the NAIP commenced around 62 Ma and continued throughout the Cenozoic. A shallow sheet of anomalously hot (Icelandic) asthenosphere has been inferred to have underlain much of the Greenland lithosphere during the Paleocene and early Eocene. Tectonic-magmatic (rift to drift) events on both the West and East Greenland margins are recorded by Paleocene and Early Eocene flood basalts, regional dike swarms, central intrusions and sill complexes in Paleozoic-Mesozoic rift basins that have been exposed by Tertiary uplift. Field observations in these basins testify as to how the magmatism invaded and heated organic-rich sediments, including former oil fields. Here we combine new and published geochronological data for tectonic-magmatic events recorded along the Greenland continental rifted margin to test the hypothesis that the origin of the main Cenozoic hyperthermals, including the PETM, is rooted in plate tectonic, metamorphic and volcanic processes in the North Atlantic region. Professor Michael Storey, Natural History Museum of Denmark
Professor Michael Storey, Natural History Museum of DenmarkMichael Storey is a Professor at the Natural History Museum of Denmark in Copenhagen. He has recently established a state-of-the art 40Ar/39Ar age dating and noble gas isotope geochemistry laboratory at the museum, funded by the Villum Foundation. His main interests are in developing and applying modern high-precision geochronology methods towards understanding the nature of the major climatic, volcanic, tectonic and evolutionary events that have punctuated the history of the Earth. He has a particular interest in the relationship between volcanism and past climate change, including the possible trigger mechanisms for the enigmatic warming events known as hyperthermals, such as the PETM. |
11:35 - 11:45 | Discussion |
11:45 - 12:00 |
Origin of early Cenozoic hyperthermals and their impact on ocean circulation
In the decades following the discovery of the PETM, numerous other hyperthermals have been discovered, marked by coeval excursions in the carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of benthic foraminifera and bulk sediment. These other hyperthermals were comparable in character to the PETM, but less extreme in magnitude and duration. The similarities of these other hyperthermals with the PETM were taken as being suggestive of a common mechanism(s) giving rise to them all. Yet it is not clear that they are all linked in this way. We still do not know what processes triggered hyperthermals, the source(s) of carbon released, and their wider Earth system impacts. This presentation will show evidence that the non-PETM hyperthermals were triggered by orbital pacing of the regular processes that readily redistribute carbon between reservoirs at Earth’s surface. In accord with this view of a minimal role for buried reservoirs of carbon, other data suggest that an interval of active carbon release from Earth’s interior (via large-scale volcanism) gave rise to relative quiescence in the carbon cycle and a consequent abeyance of hyperthermals. Existing and new data together suggest that a range of hyperthermals, spanning the full spectrum of size, were all marked by a transient switch in deep ocean overturning, from a dominant source in the Southern Ocean to one in the North Atlantic. Dr Philip Sexton, The Open University, UK
Dr Philip Sexton, The Open University, UKPhilip Sexton is a palaeoceanographer and micropalaeontologist who works as an Associate Professor at The Open University. He received his PhD from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, following which he was a European Commission Outgoing International Research Fellow at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and then a Leverhulme Trust Research Fellow at Cardiff University. His research spans the disparate fields of the palaeoceanography of the very warm Palaeogene and the cold Pleistocene, but with a unifying emphasis on understanding links between the biosphere, carbon cycling and climatic variability in both end-member climate states. Recent research has focussed on exposing the dynamics of carbon cycling across rapid climatic warming events within the Eocene extreme ‘greenhouse’, where he has offered an alternative explanation for their genesis compared to prevailing views that invoked repeated releases of carbon from buried sedimentary reservoirs. He is also Academic Advisor for a new BBC 7-part TV series exploring the natural history of our oceans (‘Blue Planet 2’) to be televised in 2018. |
12:00 - 12:10 | Discussion |
Chair
Professor James (Jim) C. Zachos, University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC), USA
Professor James (Jim) C. Zachos, University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC), USA
James (Jim) C Zachos is a Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC). He received his PhD in Oceanography from the University of Rhode Island in 1988, was a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Michigan, and a fellow at the University of Cambridge. Zachos’s research primarily focuses on the dynamics of climate and ocean carbon cycle coupling over geologic time, particularly during periods of rapid and extreme change. He has authored/co-authored 115 peer-reviewed publications on topics ranging from Eocene global warming and ocean acidification to Oligocene ice-sheet evolution, and was a contributor to the 2007 IPCC report. He is a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the Geological Society of America, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, and the California Academy of Sciences, and is a recipient of the National Young Investigator, AGU Emiliani, and Humboldt Awards. He is also a member elect (2011) of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
13:10 - 13:25 |
Causes and consequences of oceanic anoxic events – A focus on ocean nutrient cycling
Oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) reflect the most dramatic changes in ocean state of the last 250 Ma. Using an (organic geochemical) data - model comparison I provide here detailed insights into the impact of temperature and ocean nutrient inventory, and associated biogeochemical responses to two of the largest OAEs of the Mesozoic, Aptian OAE 1a (~120 Ma) and Cenomanian-Turonian OAE 2 (~93.5 Ma). The model-data reconstructions show that the spread of anoxia that both events experienced, mainly resulted from an enhancement in ocean nutrient level (4 and 2 times for OAE 1a and OAE 2 respectively). Enhanced nutrient levels thus increased ocean production in the surface and oxygen consumption in the deep ocean, causing ~50% and at least 40% of the ocean volume to become dysoxic/anoxic during OAE 1a and OAE 2 respectively. The spread of anoxia and euxinia differ between OAEs on their regional distribution as a consequence of paleogeography. The model shows that during OAEs the marine nitrogen (N)-cycle operated fundamentally differently to today. While the N:P ratio is closed to Redfield ratio in the modern ocean throughout the water column, OAEs N:P ratio collapses in the deep ocean despite high rates of nitrogen fixation in the surface. Dr Fanny Monteiro, University of Bristol, UK
Dr Fanny Monteiro, University of Bristol, UKFanny Monteiro originally studied Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences in France at the Universities of Grenoble, Lyon and Paris 6. She obtained her PhD in Climate Physics and Chemistry in 2009 at MIT and came to University of Bristol with a Marie Curie Fellowship (2009-2011). She is now a NERC research fellow and lecturer in Geography at the University of Bristol. Her work investigates the mechanisms that regulate the interactions between marine ecosystem, biogeochemical cycles and climate. She is particularly interested in the role of marine plankton and nutrients on the carbon cycle looking at modern and paleoclimate cases. Her work combines mathematical and numerical modelling in comparison with observations. Recent projects have focused on understanding the controlling mechanisms for coccolithophore ecology, marine nitrogen fixation and the spread of anoxic conditions during Oceanic Anoxic Events of the Mesozoic. |
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13:25 - 13:35 | Discussion |
13:35 - 13:50 |
Early Jurassic hyperthermals in the context of a long, continuous, integrated stratigraphy (the JET project)
During the Early Jurassic, the planet was subject to distinctive tectonic, magmatic, and orbital forcing, and fundamental aspects of the modern biosphere were becoming established in the aftermath of the end-Permian and end-Triassic mass extinctions. The breakup of Pangaea was accompanied by biogeochemical disturbances including the largest magnitude perturbation of the carbon-cycle in the last 200 Myr, coeval with the now well-characterised hyperthermal, the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE). Knowledge of the Early Jurassic is, however, based on scattered and discontinuous datasets, meaning that stratigraphic correlation errors confound attempts to infer temporal trends and causal relationships, leaving us without a quantitative process-based understanding of overall Early Jurassic Earth system dynamics. The Llanbedr (Mochras Farm) borehole in west Wales, originally drilled 50 years ago, provides the basis for placing the T-OAE, and other possible Early Jurassic hyperthermals, in a long-term stratigraphic and timescale context. Here the drillcore represents 27 Myr of Early Jurassic time with sedimentation rate of approximately 5 cm/kyr. Through the Integrated Early Jurassic Timescale and Earth System project (JET), a multi-faceted, international programme of research on the functioning of the Earth system, new data from the old Mochras core will be combined with data from a new core to provide an understanding of global change and quantify the roles of tectonic, palaeoceanographic, and astronomical forcing on hyperthermal (and hypothermal) events at this key juncture in Earth history. This project is funded by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Programme (ICDP) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Professor Stephen Hesselbo, Camborne School of Mines, University of Exeter, UK
Professor Stephen Hesselbo, Camborne School of Mines, University of Exeter, UKProf Stephen Hesselbo is Professor of Geology at the Camborne School of Mines, University of Exeter. He is a graduate of the University of Aberdeen (BSc 1983) and the University of Bristol (PhD 1987), and was at the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, from 1986 until 2013. His research interests are broadly in the area of Earth history and are aimed at understanding the dynamics of past perturbations in the Earth’s physical and biological systems and their expression in the sedimentary record. He is currently Chair of the International Prof Stephen Hesselbo is Professor of Geology at the Camborne School of Mines, University of Exeter. He is a graduate of the University of Aberdeen (BSc 1983) and the University of Bristol (PhD 1987), and was at the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, from 1986 until 2013. His research interests are broadly in the area of Earth history and are aimed at understanding the dynamics of past perturbations in the Earth’s physical and biological systems and their expression in the sedimentary record. He is currently Chair of the International Subcommission on Jurassic Stratigraphy, and lead PI for a NERC and ICDP scientific drilling project aimed at understanding the Early Jurassic Earth System (the JET project). |
13:50 - 14:00 | Discussion |
14:00 - 15:15 |
pCO2 and temperature during Aptian OAE 1a
The Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) of the Cretaceous represent one of the largest climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic and share characteristics with the Cenozoic hyperthermals. However, the response of Earth’s climate and ecosystems to OAEs is often much less well constrained. This talk will focus on Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, which took place about 120 million years ago. Using a range of organic geochemical proxies, combined with computer modeling, this presentation will quantify key-climatic parameters such as pCO2 and temperature across OAE 1a. It will be demonstrated that sustained volcanic outgassing was the primary source of carbon dioxide during OAE 1a and was the ultimate driver of the observed global warming with reconstructed temperatures during OAE 1a being higher than found anywhere during the Cenozoic. Dr David Naafs , University of Bristol, UK
Dr David Naafs , University of Bristol, UKDr David Naafs is an organic biogeochemist, specialized in using organic geochemical techniques to investigate climatic and biogeochemical processes in ancient and modern environments. His interdisciplinary research is driven by his desire and curiosity to understand the natural processes and mechanisms that operate in earth’s climate system. His approach is based on the rigorous application of state-of-the-art isotopic and organic mass spectrometry to study molecular fossils (biomarkers) derived from organisms across the three Domains of life, accumulated in modern and ancient natural archives from both the marine and terrestrial realm. Dr Naafs aim is to answer long-standing questions related to the processes and mechanisms that drive changes in climate and biogeochemistry. The applications are broad, but generally fall into three themes: Cryosphere-land-ocean interactions during the Plio/Pleistocene; global climate and biogeochemistry (C and N-cycles) during the OAEs of the Mesozoic; and wetland climate and biogeochemistry, bridging the modern and geological record. |
14:15 - 14:25 | Discussion |
14:25 - 14:55 | Tea |
14:55 - 15:10 |
Temperature change and OAEs
Mesozoic oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) have been mechanistically compared with the hyperthermals of the early Cenozoic, with some suggesting that they represent similar, but larger magnitude, perturbations of the Earth system. Conceptual models for explaining hyperthermals, OAEs, and other similar phenomena in Earth history, make specific predictions about the role and pattern of temperature change during such events, which can be tested through comparison with the geological record. Oceanic anoxic event 2 (OAE2) occurred approximately 94 million years ago at the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary and is often considered as the type example of an OAE, as it fulfills many of the predictions of the conceptual models. However, temperature change during OAE2 is largely constrained from Northern Hemisphere sites and, in many cases, is based on qualitative reconstructions. In order to understand the drivers of climate change during OAE2, quantitative estimates of temperature change from many different localities are required. In this presentation, the record of qualitative and quantitative temperature change during OAE2 will be reviewed, including unpublished data from the southern hemisphere. Consideration of these temperature records in the context of short-term carbon cycling, GCM modeling, and longer-term records of Cretaceous and early Cenozoic climate variability, will hopefully lead to better constraints on OAE2 and, more broadly, the understanding of carbon-cycle-driven climate change in the geological record. Dr Stuart Robinson, University of Oxford, UK
Dr Stuart Robinson, University of Oxford, UKStuart Robinson is Associate Professor in Sedimentology and Stratigraphy at the University of Oxford and a Tutorial Fellow of St Anne’s College. He was a student at Oxford from 1995 to 2002, gaining a BA in Geology in 1998 and DPhil in 2002. His doctoral research was broadly concerned with reconstructing Mesozoic atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and carbon cycle perturbations. Following completion of his DPhil, Stuart held post-doctoral positions at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University (New York, USA) and the University of Reading. From 2005 to 2013, he was a Royal Society University Research Fellow at University College London. In 2013, he returned to Oxford where much of his current research aims to document and understand past climate variability, particularly during exceptionally warm intervals of Earth history, such as the Cretaceous. This work applies novel organic and inorganic geochemical proxies for palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and makes use of samples collected through deep-sea scientific drilling and extensive fieldwork. |
15:10 - 15:20 | Discussion |
15:20 - 15:35 |
Hydrological cycle and cretaceous OAEs
Ancient warming events allow us to evaluate the impacts of global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks. There are a diverse range of biological and geochemical signatures that can be interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change. Further complicating interpretation is the fact that changes in precipitation and its biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in interpretation of sedimentary signatures, as well as strong evidence for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation which has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. This requires interpretations that integrate proxies holistically with one another and with model simulations. When done so, proxy records and climate models indicate that the response to past global warming was profound, with evidence for global reorganisation of the hydrological cycle and profound local increases and decreases in rainfall; combined with elevated temperatures and terrestrial vegetation change, this appears to often result in warming-enhanced soil organic matter oxidation, chemical weathering and nutrient cycling. All of these responses, however, are spatially and temporally complex. Key challenges, therefore, will be to increasingly: 1) interrogate extreme events in climate simulations; 2) use earth system models to disentangle the complex and multiple controls on proxies; 3) adopt multi-proxy approaches to constrain complex phenomena; and 4) increase the spatial coverage of such records, especially in arid regions, which are currently under-represented. Professor Richard Pancost, University of Bristol, UK
Professor Richard Pancost, University of Bristol, UKRichard Pancost started his academic career at the Pennsylvania State University, where he obtained his PhD in Geosciences; this was followed by a postdoctoral research position at the Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and then a lectureship appointment at the University of Bristol in 2000. He is is currently a Professor of Biogeochemistry in the School of Chemistry at Bristol and is the head of the Cabot Institute’s Global Change research theme. He is an organic geochemist with specific expertise in geomicrobiology and palaeoclimate reconstruction, with an emphasis on developing and applying molecular proxies for ancient carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures. Recent research highlights include new sea surface temperature records for the Paleogene and biomarker records for methane cycling and hydrological changes during past episodes of global warmth. He has been involved in numerous projects, including five EU grants, and has numerous collaborators from across the globe. In recognition for his early career accomplishments, he was awarded the 2005 Schenk Award by the European Association of Organic Geochemists, and in 2011 he was awarded the Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. |
15:35 - 15:45 | Discussion |
15:45 - 16:45 | Summary Discussion |
Chair
Professor Pincelli Hull, Yale University, USA
Professor Pincelli Hull, Yale University, USA
Pincelli Hull is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geology & Geophysics at Yale University. She received her PhD from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in 2010 and joined the faculty at Yale in 2013 after postdoctoral research at Yale University and the University of Konstanz. Hull’s research focuses on the relationship between open ocean life and the environment during mass extinctions, abrupt climatic events, and changes in background climate state. Her publications span events from the late Cretaceous to the modern day, and typically focus on the fossil record of plankton, particularly planktonic foraminifera. She has recently been awarded a Sloan Research Fellowship in Ocean Science for her work.
09:30 - 09:45 |
Marine anoxia and the end-Permian hyperthermal
Exceptionally voluminous and prolonged Siberian Traps volcanism has been widely accepted as the trigger for the end-Permian hyperthermal. The kill mechanism (the mechanism that causes death physiologically in biota) for the extinction event is, however, uncertain due to the many facets of environmental consequences from the volcanism. Recent redox-sensitive elements and their isotopes have shown that the timing and extent of anoxia are consistent with the view that anoxia is the kill mechanism. This hypothesis is tested using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (cGenie) and explore whether the Siberian Traps volcanism and its interaction with organic-rich sediments can lead to the observed pattern of anoxia. The model was initialized with Late Permian paleogeography and 10× pre-industrial pCO2 level. It was then forced with a global carbon isotope curve for 100 kyr by adding 13C-depleted carbon (-25‰) into the oceans to reproduce the 5-6 °C warming in tropical oceans. The timing and extent of anoxia from the model were comparable to the redox proxies, reinforcing the view that marine anoxia is likely the kill mechanism for the end-Permian mass extinction. Dr Ying Cui, Dartmouth College, USA
Dr Ying Cui, Dartmouth College, USADr. Ying Cui is a stable isotope geochemist and Earth system modeler in the Department of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth College. Ying’s research deals with carbon cycles during ancient hyperthermal events, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum and the end-Permian mass extinction event. Her main research interest is in exploring the links between extinction, carbon emission, global warming and the triggers of hyperthermals. She has published 12 peer-review articles related to this research topic, including Nature Geoscience, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta and Earth-Science Reviews. She is currently funded by National Science Foundation to study the atmospheric pCO2 and Earth system climate sensitivity during the Phanerozoic. |
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09:45 - 09:55 | Discussion |
09:55 - 10:10 |
Masses and rates of carbon release during the end-Permian and other hyperthermal events: a role for volcanism?
There is a strong association between flood basalt volcanism and perturbations of the Earth’s carbon cycle (as indicated by oceanic anoxic events, mass extinctions, and hyperthermals). Release of carbon (as CO2, CO, or CH4 and related compounds), directly from the volcanism and associated intrusive magmas, and from heating of carbon-bearing country rocks, doubtless acted as important drivers, but constraining the fluxes and the total amounts released is problematic. Known uncertainties include (1) the content of the primary carbon in the magmas and country rocks; (2) the duration and intensity of magmatism; and (3) the fraction of carbon that is released to the surface (from either the ascending magma or the heated country rocks). Taking a range of realistic values for the end-Permian event suggests that carbon outputs were, on average, between 0.1 and 10 Gt/a. The lower values are at least 3 times more than the average rate of increase in the atmospheric carbon during the onset of a Pleistocene interglacial period. The higher figures are similar to anthropogenic C emissions, albeit over a much longer time span (>20 ky). Professor Andy Saunders, University of Leicester, UK
Professor Andy Saunders, University of Leicester, UK
Do large-scale Earth processes, such as flood-basalt volcanism, trigger rapid and catastrophic changes in climate and, ultimately, cause mass extinctions? If so, how do these processes operate? What is the role of mantle plumes in these processes? These questions have been central to my research over the last decade or so. The main focus of the research has been the associations between the Siberian Traps and the end-Permian mass extinction, and between the North Atlantic Igneous Province and the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.
I am Emeritus Professor of Geology at the University of Leicester, and Degree Accreditation Office for the Geological Society. |
10:10 - 10:20 | Discussion |
10:20 - 10:45 | Coffee |
10:45 - 11:00 |
Ocean Acidification and anoxia at the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction: a prelude to innovation?
Ocean acidification triggered by Siberian Trap volcanism was a possible kill mechanism for the Permian Triassic Boundary (PTB) mass extinction, together with widespread anoxia. Boron isotope data Arabian Margin (Neo-Tethyan Ocean) combined with a quantitative modelling suggest that during the latest Permian, increased ocean alkalinity primed the Earth system with a low level of atmospheric CO2 and a high ocean buffering capacity. The first phase of extinction was coincident with a slow injection of carbon into the atmosphere and ocean pH remained stable. A subsequent earliest Triassic rapid and large injection of carbon caused an abrupt acidification event that drove the preferential loss of heavily calcified marine biota. Fe–S–C systematics for the Late Permian to Early Triassic show that anoxic non-sulfidic (ferruginous), rather than euxinic, conditions were prevalent, and reveal a dynamic history of repeated expansion of ferruginous conditions from anoxia focussed on the distal slope, as well as short-lived episodes of oxia that supported diverse biota. Environmental fluctuations in redox may reinforce rather than hinder evolutionary transitions, such that variability in near surface oceanic oxygenation can promote morphologic evolution and novelty, followed by innovation, and diversification. We develop a general model for redox controls on the distribution and structure of shallow marine benthos in dominantly anoxic worlds. Assembly of phylogenetic data from the earliest Triassic shows that prolonged and widespread anoxic intervals indeed promoted morphological novelty in soft-bodied benthos, which then provides the ancestral stock for subsequently skeletonised lineages to appear as innovations once oxic conditions became widespread and stable, so in turn promoting major evolutionary diversification. As a result, we propose that so-called ‘Recovery’ intervals after mass extinctions might be better considered as ‘Innovation’ intervals. Professor Rachel Wood, University of Edinburgh, UK
Professor Rachel Wood, University of Edinburgh, UKRachel Wood is a palaeontologist and sedimentologist at the University of Edinburgh, with research interests in the evolution of reef ecosystems, the rise of metazoan biomineralisation, palaeobiology of the Ediacaran and Cambrian, and the drivers and consequences of seawater chemistry changes through deep time. She is the author of ‘Reef Evolution’ published by Oxford University Press in 1999. Her research is field-based, and she has worked on Ediacaran-Cambrian strata worldwide, particularly in Siberia and Namibia. In 2018, she was the recipient of the Johannes Walther Medal from the International Association of Sedimentologists, awarded to scientists at any stage in their career who are considered to have made a significant impact in the field of sedimentology. |
11:00 - 11:10 | Discussion |
11:10 - 11:25 |
The Late Permian mass extinction and ocean anoxia
The largest extinction event to have impacted animals and plants is intimately associated with evidence of global warming. In common with many such crises throughout Earth history, there is direct evidence from the rock and fossil records for elevated atmospheric CO2, rising temperatures, increased weathering and run-off, sealevel rise, expanded oceanic anoxia as well as other warming-related environmental changes. For more than 25 years, ocean anoxia has been invoked a major cause of the Late Permian mass extinction event, and it is also inferred to have been a key control on the patterns and duration of biosphere recovery. The threat of expanding anoxic ‘dead zones’ is of critical concern at the present day. While there is little doubt that dissolved oxygen concentrations exerted a key control on benthic ecosystems during the past, as they do today, the impact on pelagic ecosystems is less straightforward. Contradictory data, such as the presence of a benthic macrofauna under apparently euxinic conditions, raise questions concerning the intensity and persistence of anoxia and also the validity of certain environmental proxies. The nature of the rock record and sampling biases are frequently ignored when interpreting past climate and environmental data, leading to misleading interpretations. New high-resolution data from Late Permian shallow marine shelf seas, where fluctuating conditions can be examined at the resolution of 1kyr, and potentially less, provide a more nuanced view of the timing and origins of marine anoxia, with wider implications for understanding the rock record of other similar events in Earth history. Professor Richard Twitchett, Natural History Museum, UK
Professor Richard Twitchett, Natural History Museum, UKProfessor Richard Twitchett is currently a research leader in Earth Sciences at the Natural History Museum, London. He completed his BSc in 1993, PhD in 1997, and was a Lindemann Trust Fellow at the University of Southern California (2000-2001) before undertaking a Royal Society ‘2+2’ fellowship at the University of Tokyo (2003-2005) and Plymouth University (2005-2007). Richard is particularly interested in understanding how the marine biosphere and key organism traits, such as body size, responded to the major climatic and environmental changes of the past, particularly those associated with the key extinction and warming episodes of the Phanerozoic. He likes nothing better than undertaking first-hand, quantitative analysis of fossil specimens, through fieldwork or from museum collections, and then integrating his palaeoecological data with chemical and other environmental proxy data. |
11:25 - 11:35 | Discussion |
11:35 - 11:50 |
Hyperthermals through the Mesozoic
Dr Jessica Whiteside, University of Southampton, UK
Dr Jessica Whiteside, University of Southampton, UKAssociate Professor of Geochemistry Dr. Jessica H. Whiteside completed a BSc in Geology/Biological Sciences with honors at Mount Holyoke College and a PhD with distinction from Columbia University in Earth and Environmental Sciences in 2006. She was Assistant Professor of Geological Sciences at Brown University before joining the Department of Ocean and Earth Science at University of Southampton in 2013. An explorer at heart, she actively pursues field- and drilling-based investigations of major mass extinctions and sudden climate change events in Earth’s past that are recorded in the geologic record. The crux of her current research focuses on the use of molecular fossils (“biomarkers”) and their isotopic composition to decipher mechanisms of (mass) extinctions, ecosystem response, and ecologic resilience during intervals of abrupt climate change. She also pursues research on organic-inorganic matter interactions, the nature of transitions between greenhouse and icehouse worlds, and the limits of planetary habitability. |
11:50 - 12:00 | Discussion |
Chair
Professor Dan Lunt, University of Bristol, UK
Professor Dan Lunt, University of Bristol, UK
Dan Lunt is Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol. Dan has over fifteen years’ experience in developing and running climate models in order to address questions and hypotheses related to past and future climate change. A particular focus has been on climate and climate sensitivity in the past. He is leader of the international DeepMIP project (www.deepmip.org), and its predecessor, EoMIP. He was a contributing author to the IPCC AR5, and in 2010 was awarded the Philip Leverhulme Prize for his work on climate modelling. Dan was founding Chief Executive Editor of Geoscientific Model Development, an EGU journal designed primarily for the description and evaluation of models of the Earth System.
13:00 - 13:15 |
Challenges of modeling early Cenozoic hyperthermal and other warm climates in state of the art coupled general circulation models
It is through careful comparison of paleoclimate proxy data and climate models that understanding of past warm climates is improved. This presentation will provide an overview of prior and current model-data agreement and disagreement highlighting key areas of progress and remaining sticking points. Distinct progress has recently been made―while until recently no good solutions to past warm climate problems were evident, now we may be left with too many solutions. The role of proxies in further refining our ability extract further insights from early Cenozoic hyperthermals and other warm climates will be emphasized. Professor Matthew Huber, Department of Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, USA
Professor Matthew Huber, Department of Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, USAProfessor Huber's group (the Climate Dynamics Prediction Lab) works on developing a better understanding of and ability to predict the dynamics of the climate system with an emphasis on investigating past warm climates as a window into future behavior. Much of this work focuses on atmosphere-ocean dynamics with an emphasis on hot conditions, e.g. the tropics. Always in Professor Huber's mind is the implications of changing climates for life and humanity. At present, much of his focus is on reconstructing the dynamic range of past tropical climates and inferring thermal limits of terrestrial and marine organisms. |
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13:15 - 13:25 | Discussion |
13:25 - 13:40 |
DeepMIP: model-data synthesis of the PETM, Late Paleocene and EECO
This presentation provides an overview of the DeepMIP project. Predictions of future climate, essential for safeguarding society and ecosystems, are underpinned by numerical models of the Earth system. These models are routinely tested against, and in many cases tuned towards, observations of the modern Earth system. However, the model predictions of the climate of the end of this century lie largely outside of this evaluation period, due to the projected future CO2 forcing being significantly greater than that seen in the observational record. Indeed, recent work reconstructing past CO2 has shown that the closest analogues to the 22nd century, in terms of CO2 concentration, are tens of millions of years ago, in ‘Deep-Time’. DeepMIP is dedicated to conceiving, designing, carrying out, analysing, and disseminating, an international effort to improve our understanding of Deep Time climates. To foster closer links between the palaeoclimate modelling and data communities. Professor Dan Lunt, University of Bristol, UK
Professor Dan Lunt, University of Bristol, UKDan Lunt is Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol. Dan has over fifteen years’ experience in developing and running climate models in order to address questions and hypotheses related to past and future climate change. A particular focus has been on climate and climate sensitivity in the past. He is leader of the international DeepMIP project (www.deepmip.org), and its predecessor, EoMIP. He was a contributing author to the IPCC AR5, and in 2010 was awarded the Philip Leverhulme Prize for his work on climate modelling. Dan was founding Chief Executive Editor of Geoscientific Model Development, an EGU journal designed primarily for the description and evaluation of models of the Earth System. |
13:40 - 13:50 | Discussion |
13:50 - 14:05 |
Disentangling forcing and feedbacks in warm climates of the Early Eocene
Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the Early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth’s climate sensitivity. I will discuss various problems that hamper progress in this direction. One is that climate sensitivity, at least in some climate models, is not fixed but rather depends on the background climate state, increasing rapidly with temperature. Another is the lack of direct proxy constraints on radiative forcing agents other than CO2. I will explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes, illustrated by a particular case study. Specifically, we compare climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2, and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the “low CO2-thin clouds” or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temper-ature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ∼11% greater global-mean precipitation. The LCTC simulation also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the high-CO2 scenario, and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. These differences are potentially detectable in the terrestrial proxy record. Professor Rodrigo Caballero, University of Stockholm, Sweden
Professor Rodrigo Caballero, University of Stockholm, SwedenRodrigo Caballero is a professor in climate dynamics at the Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University. He obtained a PhD at the University of Rome specializing in atmospheric dynamics, and subsequently moved to postdoc positions at the Danish Earth System Center at the University of Copenhagen and the Department of the Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago which broadened his outlook to include the dynamics of past and planetary climates. He spent five years as a lecturer at University College Dublin before moving to his current position in Stockholm. His research over the past decade has explored the multifarious ways in which atmospheric dynamics at all scales—from planetary-scale waves to the motion of individual cloud droplets—helps shape past, present and future climates, using a combination of simple models, full-complexity general circulation models, observational data analysis and statistical modelling. |
14:05 - 14:15 | Discussion |
14:15 - 14:45 | Tea |
14:45 - 15:00 |
Dr Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
Dr Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany |
15:00 - 15:10 | Discussion |
15:10 - 15:25 |
Connecting hyperthermals to the Anthropocene
The eventual geological/geochemical footprint of the Anthropocene will be abrupt, global in nature and multi-variate. It will consist of perturbation in stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, sedimentological changes, faunal extinctions and expansions, elemental and mineralogical changes. In many ways it will resemble the fingerprints of hyperthermals that have been detected in the geological record, specifically at the PETM, similar Eocene events and ocean anoxic events in the Cretaceous and Jurassic. This presentation shows the similarities and differences and end with a provocative challenge. Dr Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS, USA
Dr Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS, USAGavin Schmidt is a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. He works on developing models of past, present and future climate. He has been a frequent contributor to public communication on the issue of climate, working with, among others, the New York Academy of Science and the American Museum of Natural History on education and outreach. He is the co-author of ""Climate Change: Picturing the Science"" with photographer Josh Wolfe, published by W. W. Norton in 2009, and contributes to the RealClimate.org blog. He was awarded the inaugural AGU Climate Communication Prize in 2011. |
15:25 - 15:35 | Discussion |
15:35 - 15:50 |
Future climate, the Paris Agreement and impacts on society
Recently, under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, there has been a call for research into impacts associated with a 1.5C or 2C globally-averaged surface temperature anomaly. But how do we understand future climate? Are our current methods suitable to address questions related to the Paris Agreement? This presentation will review different methods for projecting future climate change, showing the sensitivity of global and regional change to the different methods chosen. It will show how our best estimates reveal that even small changes in globally averaged temperature can lead to amplified extremes and localised impacts on society, such as human health, crop failures, hydrology and more. Climate model experiments designed specifically for the Paris Agreement to assess the human impacts associated with extreme climate, will be used. For example, analyses show that in high-population regions, e.g. Central Africa, India and Europe, an additional 10-20 days of heat events can occur on average every year. Modeling the most extreme historical heat-mortality event on record as if it occurred under future climate scenarios shows that for key European cities, stabilising climate at 1.5C would decrease temperature-related mortality by 15-25% per summer compared with stabilisation at 2C, assuming no adaptation and constant vulnerability. Given the detectable impacts of a warmer planet on society, the presentation will argue as to what level of global warming is dangerous for specific sectors. Dr Dann Mitchell, University of Bristol, UK
Dr Dann Mitchell, University of Bristol, UKDann Mitchell completed his PhD at Reading University in stratospheric dynamics in 2011, where his thesis was titled 'Extreme variability of the stratospheric polar vortex'. He subsequently spent 5 years as a postdoc at Oxford University in the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics (AOPP) department, and the Environmental Change Institute. He has now been awarded an Independent Research Fellowship (IRF) from NERC, the purpose of which is to study the link between the stratosphere and extreme weather at the surface. He is also a Lecturer in the School of Geographical Sciences. He coordinates the HAPPI project (www.happimip.org) aimed at looking at climate impacts following the Paris Agreement on climate change, which involves 8 international modeling teams, and over 50 impact modelers. Together with Oxford, IIT and UEA they form an editorial team for the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A special issue on the Paris Agreement. |
15:50 - 16:00 | Discussion |
16:00 - 17:00 | Summary close |