Decarbonising UK energy: effective technology and policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future

09:10-09:40 Keynote opening talk: The Paris Agreement and its implications

Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS, Crossbench Peer, House of Lords

09:40-10:10 Current emissions, global prospects and UK carbon budgets

Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, UK

10:10-10:30 Pathways to carbon neutrality and negative emissions

Tim Kruger, University of Oxford and Origen Power, UK

Abstract

To restrict the rise in global mean temperatures to between 1.5 and 2C above the pre-Industrial level will require not only steep reductions in emissions, but also the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A wide range of techniques to achieve this end have been proposed, but there is currently an absence of mechanisms that would incentivise research, development, demonstration and deployment. This talk will explore the range of techniques, their potential and barriers to their deployment.

10:30-11:00 Discussion

11:00-11:30 Coffee

11:30-11:50 Energy security and usage forecasts

11:50-12:10 Energy futures outlook

David Eyton, BP, UK

Abstract

“BP regularly analyses trends in energy supply and demand, underpinned by our view of the underlying technologies. We also publish analyses such as our Energy Outlook and Technology Outlook, as a basis for discussing with a range of stakeholders the changes that could shape our industry and others. 

Today, the pace of change in the energy sector is accelerating. The world faces the dual challenge of meeting society’s need for more energy, while at the same time reducing emissions. As scientists and engineers we recognise in particular the urgency of this challenge – and we intend to be part of the solution.

We will share our most recent published global analyses as a basis for exploring key trends in the energy sector, and how these relate to possible solutions in a UK context.”

12:10-12:30 The Energy System – where do we go from here?

Dr Jonathan Radcliffe, University of Birmingham, UK

Abstract

The production and consumption of energy crosses multiple vectors, time-scales and geographies, involving technologies, markets and behavioural factors. It is practically a truism to call for ‘whole system’ thinking when considering policy interventions, and yet interactions between actors within the system are hard to realign so that they reflect such an approach. Barriers based on the current paradigm could slow down the transition to a low carbon society: customers pay for units of gas, electricity or petrol; support for low carbon is viewed as a subsidy relative to the cost of fossil fuel without externalities; decentralised or distributed systems are emerging in a piecemeal fashion; funding for technological innovation is often driven by short term goals. Decarbonising heat and integrating ever greater amounts of variable renewable electricity will be the big energy system challenges for the 2020s – this requires joined-up long-term energy and innovation policy that is awaited.

12:30-13:00 Discussion

14:00-14:20 Intelligent mobility and the decarbonisation of transport

Paul Campion, Transport Systems Catapult, UK

Abstract

The electrification of road and rail transportation promises to be one of the major contributions to the transport network. However, the impact of IT and communication technologies may have equally profound consequences on the way people and goods move around. It is important that we think carefully about the future of transport to ensure we optimize the outcomes for people, businesses and the planet.

14:20-14:40 Aviation, shipping and the Paris Agreement

Professor Alice Larkin, University of Manchester, UK

Abstract

The aviation and shipping sectors have drawn research interest over the past decade for three principal reasons. Firstly, emissions released in international airspace and in international waters, even if directly linked to the activities of ‘Annex 1’ citizens, were omitted from the national targets set for Annex 1 nations within the Kyoto Protocol. Secondly, the international organisations presented with a mandate to develop mitigation measures targeting these sectors – the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) – have made extremely slow process compared with other sectors. Finally, whilst frequently coupled within the climate change debate, the aviation and shipping sectors face very different challenges and opportunities in delivering meaningful mitigation efforts (Bows-Larkin 2014). With both sectors estimated to be contributing a share of annual global CO2 emissions equivalent to one of the top ten emitting nations, constraining further CO2 growth is an essential research area. The long lead-times for technological deployment governed by the capital intensive nature of aircraft, ships and related infrastructure, raises serious questions around the ability of these sectors to be able to respond, at least technically, to constraints posed by 1.5°C  and 2°C carbon budgets. In this presentation, the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature goals are interpreted for the aviation and shipping sectors, assuming these sectors deliver a “proportionate response”. The constrained proportional budget is then contrasted with existing industry projections to illustrate the gap between the Paris ambition and industry expectations. Finally, technical insights around available biofuel options, coupled with an interrogation of more radical decarbonisation possibilities and their deployment timeframes, including virtual communication, is synthesised to draw conclusions regarding the ability of these sectors to ‘fit’ within the Paris Agreement constraints. 

Bows-Larkin, A. 2014. All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy. Climate Policy, 1-22.

14:40-15:00 Discussion

15:00-15:30 Tea

15:30-15:50 Land sector pathways to climate change mitigation

Justin Adams, Nature Conservancy, UK

Abstract

Better stewardship of land is essential to achieving Paris Climate Agreement goals of holding warming well below 2°C. A comprehensive assessment of 20 different “natural climate solutions” spanning forests, grasslands, wetlands and agriculture has shown that these strategies can globally deliver more than 11 Gt CO₂e per year of greenhouse gas mitigation by 2030 at effective CO₂ prices of ₂e. Ambitious action on all 20 strategies could cumulatively deliver 37% of the cost-effective mitigation needed by 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming below 2°C, while delivering widespread co-benefits. One half of that opportunity represents carbon sequestration, and one third of the total is available at ₂e. This more comprehensive assessment underscores the critical opportunities to restore forests, improve commercial forestry and agricultural practices, and conserve sensitive wetland ecosystems both globally and in the UK, as well as supporting more conventional global climate priorities such as reducing tropical deforestation.

15:50-16:10 Capturing atmospheric CO2 with crops and rocks: from global to national scales

Professor David Beerling, University of Sheffield, UK

Abstract

Limiting future climate change requires urgently decreasing CO₂ emissions through decarbonisation of energy supplies and developing approaches for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere.  Biogeochemical improvement of croplands by amending soils with crushed fast-reacting silicate rocks may represent a CDR strategy that also improves crop production, protection from pests and diseases, and restores soil health.  It could, therefore, generate strong financial incentives for widespread adoption in an agricultural sector where rapid deployment at scale is feasible.  Recycling massive quantities of silicate waste materials could help meet the rock requirements in a cost-effective manner.  Nations that contributed most to the cumulative 565 ± 55 GtC release since the pre-industrial era (1870) that contributed most to global warming, including China, USA, India and European countries, mainly Germany, France and the UK, appear best placed to undertake the greatest share of atmospheric carbon clean-up in this way.

16:10-16:30 Changing energy systems in the UK

Andy Koss, Drax Power, UK

Abstract

The UK electricity system has changed significantly over the last few years with the rapid demise of conventional thermal plant, particularly coal, and the rise of renewables, mostly intermittent. Whilst the decarbonisation of our power system is welcome and in line with policy goals, this is creating other issues which need to be managed. More volatile power pricing is becoming a more common feature of the market, encouraged by changing regulation, and the need for system support services is growing. Services such as inertia, frequency response and voltage control, which were historically provided by conventional thermal plant, are no longer readily available and National Grid, as system operator, is increasingly having to intervene in the market to ensure system stability, particularly in periods of low demand. This leads to increasing costs, borne ultimately by consumers, and the requirement for a flexible system in the future that can handle further additional intermittent capacity.

16:30-17:00 Discussion

09:00-09:30 Decarbonising heat: the potential for steam methane reforming as an enabling technology

Iain Martin, Johnson Matthey, UK

Abstract

Historically the energy sectors have been siloed, but this is changing at a rapid pace. Electricity generation and transportation fuels are the first to undergo once in a generation shifts in production, distribution and business models, but heat is rapidly moving up the agenda. This talk will contrast the drivers behind the changes in the different sectors, and look at what lessons for policy and investment in new technologies can be gleaned from previous introductions of environmental related legislation. It will then look at the options for decarbonised heat in domestic and industrial heating duties, and reflect on the status and opportunities for current and next generation steam methane reforming technologies.

09:30-09:50 Buildings and networks

Nick Winser CBE FREng, Energy Systems Catapult

Abstract

Providing space heating to our buildings causes a substantial proportion of our greenhouse gas emissions and if we are to hit our environmental targets at reasonable cost we will need to deploy a range of new technologies to reengineer this part of our energy system. We expect the best set of solutions to be heavily influenced by the local context and understanding customers’ wishes and how they will interact with new products and services will be crucial. Reducing the energy demand for space heating will also be important. Likely technologies include: heat pumps; heat networks using waste heat; CH; hydrogen; and biofuels. The very high peak demands for heating will also make heat storage innovation highly attractive. The best choices will depend on the heat resources available and the existing energy infrastructure in each area. Furthermore, the changes in how we provide customers with heat, the electrification of transport, and the widespread deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaics to decarbonize the electricity system will result in dramatic changes to the amount of energy that we need to move around on our energy networks.

09:50-10:10 Future energy needs and engineering integrity

Professor Michael Kelly FREng FRS, University of Cambridge, UK

Abstract

Regarding the decarbonisation of the world economy by 2050 as a complex civil engineering project, Professor Kelly will show the nugatory and costly progress so far. He will show that solar and wind energy systems lack the productivity of fossil or nuclear fuel systems in terms of energy return on investment, and that widespread adoption of either or both will come with a decrease in overall economic activity, a consequence that has not received adequate attention in previous meetings of this kind. Professor Kelly contends that megacities with 10M people or more, where half of the world’s population will reside in 2050, will not be served by other than fossil or nuclear fuels for most of their energy and electricity needs. Mis-investments in the space will have lasting and damaging consequences, so we must be careful and rigourous.

10:10-10:30 Cement: the future

10:30-11:00 Discussion

11:00-11:30 Coffee

11:30-11:50 Market-focused UK innovation in fuel cells and H2, as funded by Innovate UK

Michael Priestnall, Innovate UK

Abstract

Innovate UK is the UK Government's innovation agency. Global market opportunities for the products of UK research and Innovations are created by the need for clean, affordable and resilient energy. Commercially-focussed innovations in fuel cells and hydrogen technologies in development by UK business and research communities are in scope for the Energy Catalyst and other Innovate UK competitions. A selection of these innovations will be presented.

11:50-12:10 Natural and artificial photosynthesis and water splitting

Professor James Barber FRS, Imperial College London, UK

Abstract

Demand for energy is projected to increase at least twofold by mid-century relative to the present global consumption because of predicted population and economic growth. This demand could be met, in principle, from fossil energy resources, particularly coal. However, the cumulative nature of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions demands that stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 levels to just twice their pre-anthropogenic values by mid-century will be extremely challenging, requiring invention, development and deployment of schemes for carbon-neutral energy production on a scale commensurate with, or larger than, the entire present-day energy supply from all sources combined. Among renewable and exploitable energy resources, nuclear fusion energy or solar energy are by far the largest. However, in both cases, technological breakthroughs are required with nuclear fusion being very difficult, if not impossible on the scale required. On the other hand, 1 h of sunlight falling on our planet is equivalent to all the energy consumed by humans in an entire year. If solar energy is to be a major primary energy source, then it must be stored and despatched on demand to the end user. An especially attractive approach is to store solar energy in the form of chemical bonds as occurs in natural photosynthesis. However, a technology is needed which has a year-round average conversion efficiency significantly higher than currently available by natural photosynthesis so as to reduce land-area requirements and to be independent of food production. Therefore, the scientific challenge is to construct an ‘artificial leaf’ able to efficiently capture and convert solar energy and then store it in the form of chemical bonds of a high-energy density fuel such as hydrogen while at the same time producing oxygen from water. Realistically, the efficiency target for such a technology must be 10% or better. In his lecture Professor Barber will present the molecular details of the energy capturing reactions of natural photosynthesis, particularly the water-splitting reaction of photosystem II. Professor Barber will then  describe how these reactions are being mimicked in physico-chemical-based catalytic or electrocatalytic systems with the challenge of creating a large-scale robust and efficient  technology for storing solar energy in chemical bonds to provide fuel (e.g. green hydrogen).

12:10-12:30 The role of ‘green’ ammonia in decarbonising energy

Dr Rene Banares-Alcantara, University of Oxford, UK

Abstract

The main challenge to substitute fossil fuels with renewable energy (RE) sources is the intermittency of the latter. Energy storage (ES) systems have been proposed as a solution to bridge intermittency as they can store RE, and use it when the energy demand is higher than the supply. Several types of ES technologies are available, and they differ in terms of their energy density, charge time, self-discharge, capacity, efficiency and cost. There are two important questions that need to be answered when selecting the most appropriate ES technology for a given problem: the amount of energy that needs to be stored, and the duration distribution of the stored energy. Both of these quantities depend on how well the RE and demand profiles match, but there is little discussion that both short and long term duration ES are needed in most situations. 

We have been studying methods (a) to determine the distribution of short vs long duration storage requirements for different geographical locations, and (b) to size and cost long duration ES technologies. Our research focus has been the production of ‘green’ ammonia (using H2 produced via water electrolysis powered by RE) as opposed to ‘brown’ ammonia (using H2 from steam methane reforming (SMR)). ‘Green’ ammonia can be used as an energy storage vector, but in its current use as raw material for the production of fertilisers could also avoid the large amount of CO2 emissions originating from SMR (an estimated 1.3% of worldwide CO2 emissions). 

The production of ‘green’ ammonia has been technically feasible for many years, but it has not been competitive economically. Recent models indicate that reductions in the cost of RE begin to make it possible to produce ‘green’ ammonia economically, but a competitive ammonia-based ESS would also need to account for the effect of intermittency as it affects the size and operation of the ESS. We have identified a number of key variables that influence the levelised cost of ammonia (LCOA) and have developed a model to quantify the dependence of LCOA with respect to those variables: energy source mix (solar PV, wind and grid), LCOE, electrolyser CAPEX, relative size of the ESS components, and load ramping capabilities for each of those components. 

The talk will also briefly discuss future technologies that will provide further opportunities to reduce the cost of ‘green’ ammonia such as new electrolyser technologies and improved reactor design for ammonia synthesis.

12:30-13:00 Discussion

14:00-14:20 A renewables led transition of the UK energy system – taking stock

Jo Coleman, ETI, UK

Abstract

Solar and wind have experienced rapid price reductions and global uptake has soared. At home, the UK’s continued year-on-year reduction in GHG emissions has largely been driven by the deployment of renewables in the electricity sector (alongside the switch from coal to gas). With nuclear and CCS falling behind, can we meet our 4th and 5th carbon budgets through continued deployment of renewables alone and what does this imply about the journey to 2050 and beyond?

14:20-14:40 Managing carbon to protect atmosphere, ocean and air quality: energy is more than building renewables

Professor Stuart Haszeldine, University of Edinburgh, UK

Abstract

Many legal treaties protect the land, subsurface and oceans. Very little protects the atmosphere. Yet fossil energy and biomass extractors, and energy users are able to discharge excessively into common air quality. Reducing emissions through focusing on clean electricity has failed on price against low cost renewables, but has succeeded in stigmatising coal use. However what is needed is a fundamental move to balance extraction of carbon to storage of carbon. That requires more than adjusting electricity with CCS, a revolution is required in heat, and transport. Achieving net-zero carbon accounting around 2050 will require NET storage of already-emitted carbon using biomass, and extracting from air. All these sinks depend on CCS being developed. Optimistic extrapolation of historic CCS construction shows that CO2 storage rates by 2050 will be 10× too slow. Achieving a carbon balance requires sustained unprecedented revolutionary effort to 2110.

14:40-15:00 Discussion

15:00-15:30 Tea

15:30-15:50 Energy storage: the missing link

Professor Peter Bruce FRS, University of Oxford

15:50-16:10 Global challenges in the nuclear sector, BREXATOM and new build: what do these mean for nuclear energy’s role in the UK in 2050?

Dr Dame Sue Ion FREng FRS, Hon President National Nuclear Skills Academy

Abstract

The Nuclear Sector forms a critical industry for the UK, delivering 18% of the nation’s electricity requirements, employing over 65,000 people, and providing supply chain opportunities for companies across the UK and exciting and rewarding science and engineering careers which attract the best graduates. In these uncertain Brexit times we must make sure we give this important sector the boost it needs to keep pace with the rest of the world or we will be left behind. Key countries like China are moving ahead apace with further development of the best of modern nuclear technology. Meanwhile our existing nuclear fleet except for Sizewell B will retire within the next decade: projects beyond Hinkley Point have stalled: the western developed world appears to have great difficulty in financing nuclear projects: we have forgotten that nuclear energy plays a vital role in medicine and in food security and that fast, easy transfer of materials, components and people is essential and at risk with BREXATOM: we are struggling to get the necessary investment in research, development and technology innovation to give us affordable, secure, sustainable nuclear energy for 2050. We need a different approach to develop policy & economic instruments to make it happen: might small modular reactors be a better fit for a future high-renewable mix; should we be jumping a generation of technology and if so what needs to happen to make it so?

16:10-16:40 Discussion

16:40-17:00 Overall discussion on technological portfolio

09:00-09:30 Policy for a net zero UK

Professor Cameron Hepburn, University of Oxford & London School of Economics, UK

Abstract

The UK climate change act already mandates emission reductions of 80% by 2050. The Paris agreement requires eventual 100% reductions, and in 2016, the then energy minister Andrea Leadsom said that the goal of net zero emissions would also be enshrined in UK law. Carbon pricing and innovation policies are critical to achieve these targets, and these will be briefly addressed drawing upon recent work of the World Bank and the Climate Leadership Council. But the final 20% will be far from easy, and more will be required. This paper will also attempt to identify the elements in the set of "Heineken policies" post Brexit - policies which address the sectors that other policies cannot reach.

09:30-09:50 Economics, energy policy and innovation

Professor Jim Skea CBE, Imperial College London and Co-chair IPCC Working Group III, UK

Abstract

The UK has a unique framework for linking near- to medium-term climate action to long-term goals through the Climate Change Act and the carbon budgeting system. But the Paris Agreement, which includes the aim of balancing emission sources and sinks in the second half of the century, takes ambition to a new level. Seen from this perspective, near-to medium-term policies, for all their challenges and intricacies, are the easy part. We also need policies that open up options for the longer term up to and beyond 2050. Encouraging and enabling innovation is key to meeting this challenge. This presentation will focus on current innovation trends and efforts, globally and in the UK, and assess the extent to which they match up to climate policy aspirations. It will also consider innovation policies and institutional arrangements in the UK. It will end with a short summary of how IPCC will address these issues in the Sixth Assessment Report.

09:50-10:10 Carbon pricing and other climate policies

Professor Sam Fankhauser, Grantham Research Institute, LSE, UK

Abstract

This presentation will recapitulate the main policies tools available to policy makers in pursuit of a zero-carbon economy.  Most economists consider carbon pricing to be the main policy intervention, but there are different ways of putting a price on carbon, some of which are more palatable politically than others. There is a need for additional policy interventions to encourage clean innovation, promote energy efficiency, overcome barriers clean finance and deal with any unintended socio-economic consequences, for example on fuel poverty or jobs. How these different policies interact is crucial.

10:10-10:30 Perverse incentives and outcomes

Professor George Smith, University of Oxford, UK

Abstract

When dealing with highly complex, interconnected systems, external stimuli do not always produce the outcomes that were originally intended.  This is particularly true in the case of human policy responses to the threat of climate change.  The long-term aim has been to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to acceptable levels, but initial efforts in this direction have been only partially successful.  For example, the effect of energy pricing policies and carbon taxes in Western Europe has been to cause energy-intensive industries to migrate to other parts of the world, and has also created new health and social care issues associated with “fuel poverty”.   Agricultural subsidies for the growth of first-generation biofuel crops have affected the pattern of global food production, with significant ecological and environmental consequences, and little (if any) effect on global carbon dioxide production.  In Britain, financial incentives to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from motor vehicles have produced unforeseen side effects, leading to a complete reappraisal of policy.  And the introduction of intermittent renewable energy sources prior to the availability of adequate energy storage technologies has, on occasions,  led to situations in which energy companies have been paid more to switch off their generators than to produce electricity.   With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that many of these perverse outcomes could (and should) have been anticipated.  A key issue that will be discussed is how to improve the processes of policy-making, so as to minimise the risk of similar errors occurring in the future.

10:30-11:00 Discussion

11:00-11:30 Coffee

11:30-11:50 Engaging publics: values, practices and energy system change

Professor Nick Pidgeon, Cardiff University, UK

Abstract

Energy system transitions are often presented in terms of developing better and more sustainable technologies, or simply a matter of deploying the right economic levers to incentivise change. Social science work has emphasised, however, that publics (as individuals, citizens, and communities) will need to be central to the successful energy transition. Findings are presented from recent major studies exploring how people currently interact with energy systems and how they might view energy systems changes in the future, including social, technical and economic aspects. Through the research we have been able to create a generalised picture of UK public(s) values, criteria and conditions of acceptability people would wish to place upon future energy system change, in both supply and demand. The paper also presents findings on the way current energy systems are embedded in everyday life (often in unremarkable ways) and the associated difficulty of changing people’s practices of energy use over time.

11:50-12:00 Building public and political support for climate action

Rebecca Willis, Lancaster University/Green Alliance, UK

Abstract

Any policy scenario for climate change mitigation must win political and public support, through the democratic system, if it is to be implemented successfully. Whilst many politicians understand the scientific case for climate mitigation, their ability to act depends on building and maintaining public support, whether passive or active. Rebecca will present new research from a collaborative project between Lancaster University and Green Alliance, which investigates how politicians and others can build a mandate for action. The research, based on analysis of political speech and interviews with Members of the UK Parliament, uncovers different strategies that politicians use to make a democratic case. However, it also shows a tendency to ‘tame’ climate change, shying away from discussion of its full social and environmental implications, with some maintaining that it is best not to mention climate at all. Rebecca will conclude with suggestions for ways in which all those advocating climate action can work with elected representatives to build public and political support.

12:00-12:30 Discussion

13:30-14:15 Timeline 1: the immediate future (to 2040)

Juliet Davenport OBE, Good Energy, UK
Professor Paul Ekins OBE, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, UK
Matthew Bell, Frontier Economics, UK

14:15-15:00 Timeline 2: the endgame (2050 and beyond)

Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith FRS, University of Oxford, UK
Jo Coleman, ETI, UK

15:00-15:30 Tea

16:00-16:30 Panel discussion

Abstract

Initiatives and incentives to deliver the transition to a carbon-free future.

16:30-17:00 Keynote closing talk

Lord Ron Oxburgh KBE HonFREng FRS, House of Lords, UK