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Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks

Discussion meeting

Location

The Royal Society, London, 6-9 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AG

Overview

Scientific discussion meeting organised by Professor Hayley Fowler.

Pedestrians on Dean Street, City Centre, Newcastle upon Tyne. Photo from the 28 June 2012 "Toon Monsoon" event in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, where there was almost 50mm rainfall in 90 mins. Credit: ncjMedia Ltd, Paul Norris.

Extreme heavy precipitation is increasing in frequency and intensity, and results from new global sub-daily datasets and high-resolution modelling suggest that precipitation extremes will intensify more than anticipated based upon theoretical considerations. Understanding this process is vital in advancing the theoretical knowledge necessary for a step change in regional prediction from understanding the nature and drivers of precipitation extremes.

Information on the speakers and programme is available below. Speaker abstracts will be available closer to the meeting. Recorded audio of the presentations will be available on this page after the meeting has taken place. Meeting papers will be published in a future issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

Poster session

There will be a poster session at 17.00 on Monday 3 February. If you would like to apply to present a poster, please submit your title, your abstract (no more than 200 words and in third person), author list, name of the proposed presenter and authors' institutions to the Scientific Programmes team no later than Friday 13 December 2019. Please include the text 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes: poster abstract' in the subject heading. Please note that places are limited and are selected at the scientific organisers' discretion. Poster abstracts will only be considered if the proposed presenter is registered to attend the meeting.

Attending this event

This meeting is intended for researchers in relevant fields.

  • Free to attend
  • Limited places, advance registration essential
  • An optional lunch can be purchased during registration

Enquiries: contact the Scientific Programmes team

Event organisers

Select an organiser for more information

Schedule of talks

03 February

09:00-12:30

Session 1

6 talks Show detail Hide detail

Chairs

Professor Gabriele Hegerl FRS, University of Edinburgh, UK

09:05-09:30 UK climate change adaptation and the climate change risk assessment process

The Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS, Committee on Climate Change, UK

Show speakers

09:30-10:00

Professor Hayley Fowler, Newcastle University, UK

Show speakers

10:00-10:30 Discussion

10:30-11:00 Coffee

11:00-11:30 The physical basis for changes in precipitation extremes at different durations

Professor Paul O'Gorman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

Show speakers

11:30-12:00 Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes

Dr Geert Lenderink , KNMI and Technical University Delft, The Netherlands

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12:00-12:30 Discussion

12:30-13:30

Lunch

13:30-17:00

Session 2

6 talks Show detail Hide detail

Chairs

Dr Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA

13:30-14:00 What can storm-scale models tell us about climate change impacts on extreme rainfall?

Dr Andreas Prein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA

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14:00-14:30 UKCP18: Using a convection‐permitting model ensemble for projecting future change in precipitation extremes

Dr Elizabeth Kendon, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK

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14:30-15:00 Discussion

15:00-15:30 Tea

15:30-16:00 Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse‐rate and circulation effects

Professor Christoph Schär, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

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16:00-16:30

16:30-17:00 Discussion

17:00-18:00

Poster session

04 February

09:00-12:30

Session 3

4 talks Show detail Hide detail

Chairs

Professor Hayley Fowler, Newcastle University, UK

09:00-09:30 Global assessment of flood and storm extremes with increased temperatures

09:30-10:00 Challenges and opportunities in future flood estimation

Professor Seth Westra, University of Adelaide, Australia

Show speakers

10:00-10:30 Discussion

10:30-11:00 Coffee

11:00-12:30 Panel discussion

Murray Dale, JBA Consulting, UK
Dr Harriet Orr, Environment Agency, UK

Show speakers

12:30-13:30

Lunch

13:30-17:00

Session 4

6 talks Show detail Hide detail

13:30-14:00 Understanding from hurricanes, climate change and extreme forecast attribution

Dr Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA

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14:00-14:30 Operational event attribution in Europe

Professor Peter Stott, Met Office and University of Exeter, UK

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14:30-15:00 Discussion

15:00-15:30 Tea

15:30-16:00 Using observational constraints on extreme precipitation projections

Professor Gabriele Hegerl FRS, University of Edinburgh, UK

Show speakers

16:00-16:15 Discussion

16:15-17:00 Panel discussion

Dr Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Professor Hayley Fowler, Newcastle University, UK
Professor Paul O'Gorman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
Dr Andreas Prein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Professor Seth Westra, University of Adelaide, Australia

Show speakers
Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks

3 - 4 February 2020

The Royal Society, London 6-9 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AG UK
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