Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks

Baroness Brown is an engineer, who has held senior engineering and leadership roles in industry and universities. She is currently: Vice Chair of the Committee on Climate Change and Chair of the Adaptation Committee; NED of the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult; Chair of the Carbon Trust. She was non-executive director of the Green Investment Bank, and led the King Review on decarbonising transport (2008) for the Chancellor of the Exchequer. She is the Sector Champion for the Offshore Wind Sector Deal. Baroness Brown sits as a crossbench Peer, a member of the House of Lords European Union Select Committee.

Professor Hayley Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts in the School of Engineering at Newcastle University. Her research focuses on improved physical understanding of changing precipitation extremes and providing better projections for climate adaptation. She has pioneered new downscaling techniques to bridge the gap between climate modellers and users of climate scenarios (eg UKCP09 Weather Generator). She is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (2018) and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Fellow (2014–2019) for her work on understanding climate change impacts on hydrological systems, extreme rainfall and flooding, following a Philip Leverhulme Prize (2011) and NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship (2006–2010). She leads the GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel sub-daily precipitation cross-cut, is Chief Editor of Frontiers in Interdisciplinary Climate Studies and is a Contributing Author to the Water Cycle and Extremes Chapters for the WGI IPCC 6th Assessment Report. 

Paul O'Gorman is a Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT. His research interests concern the dynamics of the atmosphere, the hydrological cycle, and climate change. His recent research has focused on the response of precipitation and the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, and the potential of machine learning to improve climate models.

Geert Lenderink has more than 20 years’ experience with climate change research and the development of weather and climate models. He completed his PhD thesis on the thermohaline ocean circulation. He (co-)developed a unified cloud and turbulence scheme that is presently operational in a regional climate model (RACMO) and in a numerical weather prediction model (Harmonie, operated by a number of European countries). He developed the methodological framework that is used in two generations of climate change scenarios for the Netherlands, issued in 2006 and 2014. Presently, his main research theme is about understanding the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors in future changes of short-duration precipitation extremes, and he wrote a number of influential papers showing the possibility of a precipitation response beyond the expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate. He is (co)author of 74 papers (26 first author) and has a H-index of 32.

Dr Andreas Prein is a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, USA, where he is working in the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes. Dr Prein has a PhD in Physics and a Master in Environmental System Sciences from the University of Graz in Austria. He is an expert in high-resolution climate modelling and observational data analysis. He is interested in the interaction between the climate system and weather extremes. Most of his work focuses on convective extreme events such as extreme precipitation and hail.

Dr Elizabeth Kendon has 13 years of experience working at the Met Office Hadley Centre on regional climate modelling. She currently leads a team of scientists using very high resolution (kilometre-scale) models to study climate change, with a main focus on gaining a better understanding of extreme rainfall processes and their future change. Her work has been pioneering in the field of convection-permitting climate modelling, with a high profile paper in Nature Climate Change (Kendon et al, 2014) and in 2018 she received the LG Groves Memorial Meteorology Prize in recognition of this work. She is currently leading work on the first ensemble of climate simulations at convection-permitting scale over the UK for the next set of climate projections (UKCP18). These will be delivered in September 2019, and will be the first time internationally that convection-permitting projections will be provided in national climate scenarios. She also recently worked on the FCFA IMPALA project involving convection-permitting climate simulations over Africa, with the first future change results published in Nature Comms (Kendon et al, 2019). Lizzie also has a key role in the ERC INTENSE project analysing intense rainfall, NERC FUTURE-STORMS project looking at changes in high impact events and is participating in the EUCP project which includes carrying out coordinated convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe. Lizzie has a PhD in atmospheric science from Imperial College London (2005), an MSC with distinction from Manchester University (1999) and a 1st class BAHons and MSci in Natural Sciences (Physics) from Cambridge University (1998).

Professor Christoph Schär obtained his Physics degree and PhD in atmospheric dynamics from ETH Zurich. He had post-doctoral positions in the USA (Yale, New Haven; University of Washington, Seattle). He has been a professor at ETH since 1992. He served on a number of committees, among these as a member and chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the ECMWF (Reading, UK), in the editorial boards of several leading journals, as a contributing author of the 3rd and 4th IPCC assessment reports, and as a lead author of the 5th IPCC assessment report. He and his group have expertise in atmospheric dynamics and numerical modelling. His recent work addresses the development and exploitation of high-resolution climate models, with a particular view to better understand heavy precipitation events.

Professor Jason Evans gained his PhD from the Australian National University before taking up a research position at Yale University in the USA. He is currently a Professor in the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. He is a chief investigator in the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. He is co-Chair of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Panel and a member of the Science Advisory Team of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), both elements of the World Climate Research Programme. He is a lead author of the IPCC special report on Climate Change and Land, and editor of the Journal of Climate. His research focuses on the climate system particularly in regards to land-atmosphere interactions, the water cycle and regional climate change.

Ashish Sharma is a Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources at the University of New South Wales. He also serves as the President of the International Association of Hydrologic Sciences – Commission on Statistical Hydrology. He has varied research interests encompassing many aspects of hydroclimatology, and a focus on engineering uptake and solutions to some of the biggest challenges we are facing worldwide. Ashish publishes actively in Stochastic Hydrology, Treatment of Uncertainty in Natural Systems (using Bayesian and other methods), Treatment of Systematic Biases in Models, Innovative Remote Sensing Applications including those for Flood Estimation, and a range of problems related to how warmer temperatures will change hydrological knowhow and practice over time. Ashish’s recent and older papers can be found on Google Scholar.

Seth is the Theme Leader for Food, Water and Agriculture within the Faculty of Engineering, Computer and Mathematical Sciences at the University of Adelaide, and has over 17 years’ research and consulting experience across both academia and industry. Seth has contributed to the fields of hydrology, water resource assessments and flood and climate risk, combining a focus on scientific rigour with a passion for ensuring research can serve industry and societal needs. He has published over 80 journal and conference papers, co-authored three chapters for Australia’s national flood guidance document (Australian Rainfall and Runoff), and worked on multiple industry projects related to climate risk.

Murray is a hydrometeorologist and a Technical Director at JBA Consulting with 26 years’ professional experience. He has worked with climate projections from meteorological models for twenty years and was involved in testing and review of both UKCP18 and UKCP09 projections prior to their release. With strong links to the Met Office, where he was Hydrology Team leader from 2003 to 2005, he was instrumental in the development of the Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) service and the subsequent, surface water flood forecasting service operated by the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC). Murray led the UK Water Industry Research project, Rainfall intensity for sewer design, delivered in 2017, involving the Met Office and Newcastle University, which developed new design guidance for high-intensity rainfall changes due to climate change. He is a regular presenter at national and international conferences and has and authored over 20 journal papers and conference proceedings related to hydrometeorology and climate resilience.

Dr Harriet Orr is a research scientist specialising in climate change. She leads a team of scientists and work with technical specialists in academic and research institutions and other agencies. Harriet’s team makes sure the right research is in place to meet current and future needs. They come up with practical solutions to help staff within and outside the Environment Agency plan for and manage the effects of climate change. The group set out the need for research, sometimes commissioning this, doing it themselves or working in partnership with others. They help shape the activities of research funders and steer projects. Harriet’s team does a lot of translation of science as well as sharing their agenda and the needs of science users with the wider research community. Harriet currently chairs the UKCP18 Non-Government User Group which seeks ways to ensure climate projections meet user needs.

Nalan is the Senior Lead Flood Specialist in the Model Research and Evaluation team. In her role, she is responsible for interpreting, assessing and validating catastrophe risk models related to flood. She also provides knowledge and direction for client specific bespoke solutions to understand and manage flood risk across international territories. Nalan spent five years as a Senior Hydraulic Engineer on developing catastrophe flood models. She has worked extensively in the flood hazard component of inland flood models, specifically in hydraulic modelling, quality assurance/quality check processes and hazard validation and calibration. Prior to that, Nalan was employed at engineering consulting and design companies in the US as a Civil Engineer where she spent five years performing engineering tasks associated with hydrologic/hydraulic analysis. Nalan holds an MSc from Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, GA. She holds an MSc and a BSc in Civil Engineering from Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey.

Dr Michael F Wehner is a senior staff scientist in the Computational Research Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Dr Wehner’s current research concerns the behaviour of extreme weather events in a changing climate, especially heat waves, intense precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones. Before joining the Berkeley Lab in 2002, Wehner was an analyst at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the Program for Climate Modeling Diagnosis and Intercomparison. He is the author or co-author of over 170 scientific papers and reports. He was a lead author for both the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th US National Assessments on climate change. He is currently a lead author for the upcoming Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Dr Wehner earned his masters degree and PhD in nuclear engineering from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and his bachelors degree in Physics from the University of Delaware.

Professor Peter Stott is Science Fellow in Attribution at the Met Office Hadley Centre and Professor of Detection and Attribution at the University of Exeter. At the Met Office, he leads a research team developing methods for attributing the causes of extreme weather events to human and natural factors. At Exeter University, he leads a project called Climate Stories which brings together poets, printmakers, singer-songwriters and climate scientists to develop new ways of thinking about climate change. He is a co-editor of annual reports which explain extreme weather events from a climate perspective. He was Coordinating Lead Author for Chapter 10 (Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional) of the Working Group 1 of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. He has a strong interest in public outreach and engagement and appeared in the BBC documentary presented by Sir David Attenborough, Climate Change: The Facts.

Gabi Hegerl is a climate scientist who focuses on identifying the drivers and mechanisms of observed climate change. This work provides a critical underpinning to predictions of future changes. Gabi published some of the first studies determining that recent warming is statistically different from climate variability, and pioneered a method that distinguishes between possible causes for climate change, such as greenhouse gas increases or changes in the sun. Gabi’s recent work has shown that human influences have changed global precipitation patterns and has made contributions to determining the causes of changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Gabi is co-leading the World Climate Research program’s grand challenge on extreme events, and co-authored the US National Academies’ report on extreme event attribution. Gabi has had key roles in scientific assessments of climate change (IPCC), and is a fellow of the Royal Society, Leopoldina, the American Geophysical Union and of the Royal Society of Edinburgh.

Dr Michael F Wehner is a senior staff scientist in the Computational Research Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Dr Wehner’s current research concerns the behaviour of extreme weather events in a changing climate, especially heat waves, intense precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones. Before joining the Berkeley Lab in 2002, Wehner was an analyst at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the Program for Climate Modeling Diagnosis and Intercomparison. He is the author or co-author of over 170 scientific papers and reports. He was a lead author for both the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th US National Assessments on climate change. He is currently a lead author for the upcoming Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Dr Wehner earned his masters degree and PhD in nuclear engineering from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and his bachelors degree in Physics from the University of Delaware.

Professor Hayley Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts in the School of Engineering at Newcastle University. Her research focuses on improved physical understanding of changing precipitation extremes and providing better projections for climate adaptation. She has pioneered new downscaling techniques to bridge the gap between climate modellers and users of climate scenarios (eg UKCP09 Weather Generator). She is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (2018) and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Fellow (2014–2019) for her work on understanding climate change impacts on hydrological systems, extreme rainfall and flooding, following a Philip Leverhulme Prize (2011) and NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship (2006–2010). She leads the GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel sub-daily precipitation cross-cut, is Chief Editor of Frontiers in Interdisciplinary Climate Studies and is a Contributing Author to the Water Cycle and Extremes Chapters for the WGI IPCC 6th Assessment Report. 

Paul O'Gorman is a Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT. His research interests concern the dynamics of the atmosphere, the hydrological cycle, and climate change. His recent research has focused on the response of precipitation and the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, and the potential of machine learning to improve climate models.

Dr Andreas Prein is a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, USA, where he is working in the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes. Dr Prein has a PhD in Physics and a Master in Environmental System Sciences from the University of Graz in Austria. He is an expert in high-resolution climate modelling and observational data analysis. He is interested in the interaction between the climate system and weather extremes. Most of his work focuses on convective extreme events such as extreme precipitation and hail.

Seth is the Theme Leader for Food, Water and Agriculture within the Faculty of Engineering, Computer and Mathematical Sciences at the University of Adelaide, and has over 17 years’ research and consulting experience across both academia and industry. Seth has contributed to the fields of hydrology, water resource assessments and flood and climate risk, combining a focus on scientific rigour with a passion for ensuring research can serve industry and societal needs. He has published over 80 journal and conference papers, co-authored three chapters for Australia’s national flood guidance document (Australian Rainfall and Runoff), and worked on multiple industry projects related to climate risk.