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Discussion meeting organised by Professor Jon Bridle, Professor Andrew Balmford FRS, Professor Sarah Durant, Professor Richard Gregory, Professor Kate Jones, Professor Richard Pearson, Professor Andy Purvis and Professor Vincent Savolainen.

Overview

Scientific discussion meeting organised by Professor Jon Bridle, Professor Andrew Balmford FRS, Professor Sarah Durant, Professor Richard Gregory, Professor Kate Jones, Professor Richard Pearson, Professor Andy Purvis and Professor Vincent Savolainen.

Our understanding of the patterns and rate of biodiversity loss, and their consequences for human societies has been transformed by the ideas, insight and energy of Georgina Mace (1953–2020). This meeting highlighted how Georgina’s work repeatedly changed the conversation about how we measure biodiversity, its value, and our relationship with nature, and showcased scientists building on her enormous accomplishments.

The schedule of talks, speaker biographies and abstracts are available to view below. Meeting papers will be published in a future issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.

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Aerial view of the Borneo rainforest

Aerial view of the Borneo rainforest. Credit: Hasselblad.

Organisers

Schedule


Chair

09:05-09:30
Two decades of the Red List Index

Abstract

The Red List Index (RLI) was first developed 20 years ago by a group of conservation scientists including Georgina Mace. It shows trends over time in aggregate survival probability (the inverse of extinction risk) for sets of species. It is calculated from the number of species in each IUCN Red List category, and the number moving between categories between assessments owing to genuine improvement or deterioration in status. The global RLI is aggregated across multiple taxonomic groups, and can be disaggregated to show trends for different subsets of species (e.g. pollinating, migratory, or wetland species), or to show trends driven by particular factors (e.g. international trade, invasive alien species’ impacts, or fisheries). National RLIs have been generated through either repeated assessments of national extinction risk in each country, or through disaggregating the global index and weighting each species by the proportion of its range in each country. The indicator has achieved wide policy uptake, including by the Convention on Biological Diversity, Convention on Migratory Species, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species, Sustainable Development Goals, and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Future developments include expanding the taxonomic coverage, applying the RLI to the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, projecting the RLI under different scenarios, incorporating uncertainty in the underlying Red List assessments, and more sophisticated analysis of the factors driving RLI trends.

Speakers

09:30-09:45
Discussion
09:45-10:15
Measuring how and why global biodiversity is changing using the Living Planet Index

Abstract

The Living Planet Index (LPI) is one of a suite of indicators used to measure changes in biodiversity globally. Based on vertebrate population data collected from monitoring sites around the world, it can provide a sensitive tool for analysing trends at different scales. The LPI was originally developed a quarter of a century ago to provide an insight into trends in species globally. This was at a time when threats to nature were increasing but very few indicators existed to measure the anthropogenic impact on biodiversity. In 2006, a partnership between the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) and WWF was initiated to continue development of the LPI with instrumental support from Georgina Mace, then Director of Science at ZSL. Since then, the indicator and data set supporting the LPI has been expanded to develop a detailed understanding of patterns in vertebrate populations. This talk will outline the LPIs contribution to the field of biodiversity indicators, and how it has been used to measure the changing status of global biodiversity through applications in research. The LPI has informed many policy instruments by documenting evidence of progress towards national and global targets. Whilst to date the LPI has recorded overall declines in biodiversity around the world, this talk will explore its utility in also measuring the recovery of nature. 

Speakers

10:15-10:30
Discussion
10:30-11:00
Break
11:00-11:30
Biodiversity in economics and finance

Abstract

The global, independent Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity explored how and why we have failed to integrate nature into decision-making and what we can do about it. Georgina Mace participated on the Dasgupta Review’s Advisory Panel, and provided counsel to Professor Dasgupta and his team throughout the drafting of the Review, including on her areas of expertise in biodiversity science and valuing biodiversity. This talk will introduce the Dasgupta Review, Georgina Mace’s contributions, the options for change it set out, and its recommendations for institutional change in the financial system.

Many of the options for change set out in the Dasgupta Review are now being put into practice, as well as generating further research and increasing understanding among economic and financial decision-makers. The Dasgupta Review included chapters on management of nature-related financial risk and uncertainty, and finance for sustainable engagement with nature. Its recommendations are now being taken forward by the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) who are developing a risk management and disclosure framework for organisations to report and act on evolving nature-related risks, with the ultimate aim to support a shift in global financial flows away from nature-negative outcomes and toward nature-positive outcomes.  This talk will introduce the ‘beta version’ of the framework and outline how it is already being used globally by corporates and financial institutions through pilot testing. Critical areas for further research identified through the TNFD framework development process will be outlined, including on data, metrics, targets, scenarios and transition plans. 

 

Speakers

11:30-11:45
Discussion
11:45-12:15
Accounting for functionality in the identification of global conservation priorities: promises and pitfalls

Abstract

The application of the Red List Categories and Criteria to comprehensive assessments of entire taxonomic groups – including the collation of associated data on species distributions – marked a turning point in conservation planning and practice aimed at maintaining global species diversity. More recently, the combination of these spatialised datasets with information on individual species’ traits has enabled large-scale mapping of functional diversity and rarity, raising the promise that conservation planning can be extended beyond protecting species to the maintenance of ecosystem functionality. In this presentation, Dr Rodrigues will review how the aim to protect ecosystem functionality has been integrated into large-scale conservation priority setting. She will argue that there is often a mismatch between the arguments presented to justify the importance of a functional approach to conservation and the methods applied to identify priority areas and species. In particular, applications of functional diversity and rarity as biodiversity metrics in conservation planning are poorly supported by evidence that these metrics do reflect ecosystem function. Other promising routes for integrating functionality into conservation planning come from the development of the Red List of Ecosystems, Green Status assessments of Species, and the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas.

Speakers

12:15-12:30
Discussion

Chair

13:30-14:00
Bending the curve of biodiversity loss requires a ‘sat-nav’ for nature

Abstract

Georgina Mace urged the global community to aim higher to bend the curve of biodiversity loss. She then convened the most ambitious ensemble of global biodiversity models to show the types and magnitude of policy interventions that bending the curve would require. This talk focuses on some of the obstacles that the new global biodiversity monitoring framework must overcome if such ambitious targets for nature are to be met. Meeting time-bound targets efficiently requires adaptive management, which in turn requires a ‘sat-nav’ for nature. The two main pillars of such a sat-nav are (1) models that predict future consequences of today’s choices, and (2) rapid feedback from monitoring to enable course corrections and model improvements. The same elements are needed by organisations wishing to ensure that their actions are nature-positive, but neither is yet written into the global biodiversity monitoring framework. Some of the obstacles ahead are purely scientific. For example, whereas developing climate models were able to use rich time series from the instrumental record and proxies, no comparable data are available for developing biodiversity models. Some obstacles, such as the lack of a Biodiversity Model Intercomparison Program analogous to CMIP for climate models, could be overcome relatively rapidly with funding. The cultures within biodiversity science and science-policy have themselves thrown up some obstacles, such as a leaky pipe for data and disincentives for improving indicators, which also need addressing if we are to bend the curve of biodiversity loss.

Speakers

14:00-14:15
Discussion
14:15-14:45
Plant diversity in a changing world

Abstract

Climate change drives biodiversity change, causing range shifts that alter species richness and composition with negative impacts on ecosystem services, and the question of species' ability to adapt remains unresolved. Here, Assistant Professor Daru will explore the effect of climate change on global plant diversity using species distribution models and climatic projections. He will investigate changes in geographic distribution of plant species worldwide and predict the extent to which global plant diversity will change under current and future climate, including range shift velocities required for plant species to keep up with future climate change. In his research, he found that there will be widespread reductions in areas climatically suitable for plant growth in the future, with a global median reduction of 1.49%. Areas of plant diversity in the present are projected to experience increases in weighted endemism, supporting the projected decrease in range size for most species. His findings also predict plant communities across the Arctic, Eurasia, and the tropics, especially in west and central Africa, will experience pronounced losses in the spatial composition of β-diversity due to simultaneous local disappearance and introduction of new species. The velocities of range shifts across latitudes and elevations will vary across regions and plant clades. Assistant Professor Daru's study highlights the importance of predicting and conserving diversity at other trophic levels, as plants are foundation species that sustain food chains and drive terrestrial ecosystem productivity.

Speakers

14:45-15:00
Discussion
15:00-15:30
Break
15:30-16:15
Contributed speakers
16:15-16:45
Getting a handle on the impacts of environmental change on tropical forests

Abstract

In this talk Professor Lewis will describe some recent changes to intact tropical forests from large-scale and widely distributed long-term inventory plot networks from across the tropics, and then present some new research on the common species in tropical forests. The conclusion of which is that African, South American and Southeast Asian tropical forests are remarkably similar in terms of their proportion of common species. Remarkably, just ~1,000 tree species account for ~50% of all of the ~800 billion trees (>=10 cm trunk diameter) in Earth’s closed-canopy tropical forests. This is a tractably small number of tree species to understand their autecology and their likely responses to environmental change. This new understanding can open new research avenues in terms of tracking and modelling limited numbers of species that constitute >50% of the trees in a tropical forest to make improved predictions of the behaviour of tropical forests under today’s rapid environmental change. These results may also reveal fundamental mechanisms of ecosystem assembly that apply to all tropical forests, despite their differing biogeographical, environmental and anthropogenic histories. 

Speakers

16:45-17:00
Discussion

Chair

09:00-09:30
Reconnecting people and nature for transformative climate change adaptation

Abstract

The potential for nature-based transformation is now acknowledged as essential for pathways to sustainable futures. Yet, beyond generic principles and a rapidly increasing number of place-based case studies, we don’t have a structured, evidence-based understanding of how people can activate nature’s potential for transformative climate change adaptation. Here, Dr Lavorel assumes that success of local initiatives is underpinned by people-nature relationships. Specifically, she hypothesises that nature-based adaptation to climate and other global changes entails the recognition, strengthening and repair of linkages within nature, among people and between people and nature. She characterised case studies from multiple continents using criteria depicting the type and intensity of nature-nature, people-people and people-nature relationships: 1) criteria for nature-nature relationships capture properties associated with ecological resilience and transformation, 2) criteria for people-people relationships focus on processes of decision making underpinned by knowledge generation, equity and power relationships, and individual and institutional capacities, and 3) criteria for people-nature relationships are structured by the continuum from nature for people to people as nature. From this process synthesis Dr Lavorel identifies alternative pathways that reconnect people and nature for adaptation. She suggests that this understanding is essential for amplifying the local success of initiatives, for deployment across local socio-ecosystems and ultimately for transforming institutions and values.

Speakers

09:30-09:45
Discussion
09:45-10:15
Building on Georgina Mace's legacy: advancing natural capital research and applications

Abstract

This presentation explores the profound impact of Professor Georgina Mace on the field of biodiversity and natural capital research and highlights how her work has shaped the presenter's research trajectory. The talk delves into the development of the Natural Capital Indicators Framework (NCIF), a collaborative effort between the presenter and Professor Mace, and its application in diverse environmental contexts.
Two case studies demonstrate the practical application of the NCIF: (1) assessing the feasibility of natural capital reporting in the Brazilian Pantanal biome, a region characterised by its rich biodiversity and complex ecosystem services, and (2) investigating the integration of natural capital values in the UK marine management context, emphasising the need for an interdisciplinary approach to address marine conservation challenges.

The presentation pays tribute to Georgina Mace's inspiring qualities, including her ability to simplify complex discussions and identify the most intriguing and significant aspects of scientific problems.

The talk concludes by emphasising the importance of building on Professor Mace's work to promote a biodiverse and liveable future, exploring interdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge-sharing opportunities to pursue more sustainable environmental management.

Speakers

10:15-10:30
Discussion
10:30-11:00
Break
11:00-11:45
Contributed speakers
11:45-12:15
Uniting natural science and economics to support better land use decision making

Abstract

While the intellectual giants of the 18th and 19th Centuries were polymaths, the 20th Century was characterised by a narrowing of perspectives in the pursuit of disciplinary excellence. This generated an unprecedented depth of knowledge, but left academia poorly equipped to deal with the inherently interdisciplinary challenges of the present century. Those fortunate enough to have worked with her quickly realised that Georgina Mace possessed a diamond clear ability to understand complex problems and bring together the diverse perspectives needed to address multifaceted challenges such as biodiversity loss and climate change. The present paper builds on that legacy by combining multiple disciplines drawn from across the natural, physical, economic and social sciences to provide the essential interdisciplinary basis needed to support land use decision making. This talk will present a quantitative integration of these disciplines, integrating their insights through an applied linkage of models providing an understanding of the drivers of land use change and consequences of altering those drivers. It will also present findings relevant to the role of land use change in bending the curve on biodiversity loss and delivering net zero emissions of greenhouse gases. While the appropriate integration of such diverse perspectives is complex, Professor Bateman will argue that it is actually the minimum set of considerations necessary to defensibly approximate to the real world and that more conventional, single-discipline, reductionist approaches typically fail Mencken’s test by producing answers that are clear, simple – and wrong. 

Speakers

12:15-12:30
Discussion

Chair

13:30-14:00
A path to recovery: the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Abstract

The 2018 paper by Mace et al ‘Aiming higher to bend the curve of biodiversity loss’ helped to frame the discussions for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. After four years of negotiations, governments adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework at COP 15 in December 2022 with the mission to take urgent action to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, and by 2030 to put nature on a path to recovery for the benefit of people and planet. It includes four outcome-oriented goals for 2050 and 23 action-oriented targets for 2030. This presentation will highlight the need for a whole-of-society approach to implement the Framework and explore the challenges and opportunities for the scientific community to contribute to this critical endeavour.

Speakers

14:00-14:15
Discussion
14:15-15:00
Contributed speakers
15:00-15:30
Break
15:30-16:00
Meeting people’s future needs at least cost to biodiversity

Abstract

Food production has a greater impact on other species than any other sector, yet how best to limit its effects is greatly contested. Reviewing progress to date in interventions to encourage less damaging diets and to cut food waste, Professor Balmford concludes that both are essential but are far from sufficient. Turning to the supply side, quantification of the population-level impacts of land-sharing, land-sparing, and intermediate and mixed approaches for almost 2000 individually-assessed species shows that across five continents, high-yield farming and sparing consistently outperform land sharing, particularly for species of highest conservation concern. Sparing also offers considerable potential for lowering greenhouse gas emissions. In working through these results Professor Balmford also identifies five uncomfortable truths for conservationists:

1) Biodiversity is already in substantially worse shape than some global metrics suggest;

2) While other drivers attract more attention, the mundane challenge of meeting people’s demand for food remains the greatest threat to wild nature;

3) Reducing demand for higher-footprint foods and cutting waste are essential, but insufficient: raising and sustaining food yields is vital if most species are to persist;

4) Because they reduce space available for natural habitats, 'wildlife-friendly' farming methods that lower yields (such as organic production) risk causing grave damage to most wild species;

5) Identifying, promoting and regulating sustainable high-yield farming systems is essential if we are to slow biodiversity’s loss (and indeed deliver the 30x30 vision), yet this will necessitate both open-minded and ambitious commitment from both government and the private sector.

Speakers

16:00-16:10
Discussion
16:10-17:00
Panel discussion: Future science and scientists to bend the curve of biodiversity loss