Challenging the standard cosmological model

15 - 16 April 2024 09:00 - 17:00 The Royal Society Watch online

Scientific discussion meeting organised by Professor James Binney FRS, Dr Roya Mohayaee, Professor John Peacock FRS and Professor Subir Sarkar.

Is the universe simple enough to be adequately described by the standard ΛCDM cosmological model which assumes the isotropic and homogeneous Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker metric? Tensions have emerged between the values of cosmological parameters estimated in different ways. Do these tensions signal that our model is too simple? Could a more sophisticated model account for the data without invoking a Cosmological Constant?

The schedule of talks and speaker biographies are available below. Speaker abstracts will be available closer to the meeting date. Meeting papers will be published in a future issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

Poster session

There will be a poster session on Monday 15 April. Poster submissions are now closed.

Attending this event

In person registration has currently sold out, but you can still sign up for virtual participation using the above link.  Please contact the Scientific Programmes team if you have any questions.

Organisers

  • James Binney

    Professor James Binney FRS, University of Oxford, UK

    James Binney has a BA from Cambridge University and a DPhil degree from Oxford University. During 1971-2 he studied at the Albert Ludwigs Univiersitat, Freiburg i. Breisgau. From 1975-1979 he was a Fellow by Examination of Magdalen College, Oxford, and he spent the years 1975-6 and 1979-1980 in Princeton University before joining the Oxford Physics Faculty in 1981. From July 1996 to March 2018 he was Professor of Physics at Oxford University and a Professorial Fellow of Merton College. From 2010-2015 he was the Head of Oxford's Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics.

    In 2000 he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of London and a Fellow of the Institute of Physics. In 2022 he was elected an International Member of the US National Academy of Sciences.

    The Institute of Physics awarded him the 1986 Maxwell Medal and prize, the 2010 Dirac Medal and prize, and the 2023 Isaac Newton Medal and prize. He also received the 2003 Dirk Brouwer Award of the American Astronomical Society and the 2013 Eddington Medal of the Royal Astronomical Society, the 2013 Medaille de l'Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris and the 2015 Occhialini Medal from the Italian Physical Society.

    During 1994-7 he was President of both Commission 33 and Division VII of the International Astronomical Union.

    He has spent sabbatical terms at Caltech, The University of Arizona, Princeton University and the Australian National University. He gave the 2010 Vainu-Bappu Lecture at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics. During 2011 he was the Oort Professor at Leiden University and in 2014 he gave the Dennis Sciama Memorial Lectures in Oxford and Trieste.

    He has co-authored graduate-level texts on both galaxies and the theory of critical phenomena and an undergraduate text on quantum mechanics. His research concerns the structure, dynamics and formation of galaxies.

  • Roya Mohayaee

    Dr Roya Mohayaee, Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris, France

    Roya Mohayaee is a professor of astrophysics at Sorbonne Université. She has obtained her PhD from Imperial College, London in Theoretical Physics and works in the domain of astrophysics, mathematical modelling of dynamics of the Universe, early Universe, dark matter and dark energy.

  • John Peacock

    Professor John Peacock FRS, University of Edinburgh, UK

    John Peacock is a well-known cosmologist, with research interests at the interface between theory and observation. He has spent most of his career at the Royal Observatory Edinburgh and at the University of Edinburgh, where he was Head of Astronomy from 2007 to 2013. He has written extensively on statistical methods for studying cosmological density fields, including developing the widely-used Halo Model. He was UK Chairman of the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (1999-2005). He is the author of Cosmological Physics, a highly successful postgraduate textbook. Between 2015 and 2021, his work was supported by an Advanced Grant from the European Research Council. Major awards for his research include election as a Fellow of the Royal Society (2007); the Shaw Prize in Astronomy (2014); the Gold Medal of the Royal Astronomical Society (2023).

  • Subir Sarkar

    Professor Subir Sarkar, University of Oxford, UK

    Subir Sarkar was born and educated in India. He was an undergraduate at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur and obtained his PhD (1982) at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai, where he was also a staff member. Since 1990 he has been at the Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics at the University of Oxford and was head of its Particle Theory Group (2011-19). He has held visiting positions at CERN, Geneva, Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen and Raman Research Institute, Bangalore, amongst others. His research interests are focussed at the interface of fundamental physics and cosmology; he is both a theorist and participates in experiments like the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, Cherenkov Telescope Array, and Legacy Survey of Space & Time on the Rubin Telescope. He was awarded the IUPAP-TIFR Homi Bhabha Medal and Prize (2017) for “distinguished contributions in the field of high energy cosmic ray physics & astro-particle physics”.

Schedule

Chair

Professor John Ellis CBE FRS, King’s College London, UK

08:55-09:00 Welcome by the Royal Society and organisers
09:00-09:30 Status of the LCDM theory: supporting evidence and anomalies

The standard LCDM cosmology passes demanding tests that establish it as a remarkably good approximation to reality. It stands to be improved, however, and the tensions, or anomalies, in the LCDM theory might yield hints to finding a still better cosmology. I will offer thoughts about the anomalies, including an update of the evidence of large-scale sheet-like patterns in the space distributions of galaxies, clusters of galaxies, and quasars.

Professor Jim Peebles FRS, Princeton University, USA

Professor Jim Peebles FRS, Princeton University, USA

09:30-09:45 Discussion
09:45-10:15 Challenges to the Lambda CDM Cosmology

Observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies provide strong evidence in support of the ΛCDM cosmology. Nevertheless, a number of 'tensions' have emerged. I will review: (a) recent results from the CMB that have strengthened the evidence in favour of ΛCDM; (b) why it is difficult to explain the discrepancy between the ΛCDM value of the Hubble constant, H0,  and the value derived from the Cepheid distance scale; (c) why the interpretation of cosmic shear surveys may indicate a small-scale/large-scale mismatch rather than an inconsistency between early and late time physics; (d) why inflation, a cornerstone of the ΛCDM model, has introduced a new hierarchy problem in cosmology.

Professor George Efstathiou FRS, University of Cambridge, UK

Professor George Efstathiou FRS, University of Cambridge, UK

10:15-10:30 Discussion
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-11:30 New JWST Observations: What Do They Tell Us About the Hubble Tension?

Professor Freedman will describe new results from a major JWST program to improve measurements of the Hubble constant. The 10 times greater sensitivity and 4 times higher resolution of JWST in the near-infrared provide a powerful means of addressing challenges in previous measurements of the extragalactic distance scale. Distances to a sample of Type Ia supernova hosts have been measured using three independent astrophysical routes: 1) the Cepheid period-luminosity relation, 2) the Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB) and 3) the luminosity function of JAGB/carbon stars. These three measurements provide a constraint on the systematic uncertainties in the distances that set the local calibration for the Hubble constant.  As part of their analysis, their JWST photometry was blinded by adding random numbers to each of the photometric catalogues, which were then encrypted and not available to group members. The entire analysis was carried out in this blinded state until the relative distances were locked in, at which point the photometry was unblinded simultaneously for all three methods, and a value of Ho for each of the methods was computed. The implications for the Hubble tension will be presented.

Professor Wendy Freedman FRS, University of Chicago, USA

Professor Wendy Freedman FRS, University of Chicago, USA

11:30-11:45 Discussion
11:45-12:15 Testing the cosmological model in the non-linear regime with weak lensing

Weak gravitational lensing provides an immense opportunity to test LCDM in the non-linear regime. Over the last decade, it has matured as a high-precision tool with on-going surveys like the Dark Energy Survey, which has imaged 5000 sq degrees and 100M galaxies. Intriguingly, weak lensing surveys have consistently reported a mild cosmological tension:  low values of the clustering amplitude parameter  (S_8) compared to that predicted by Planck primary Cosmic Microwave Background. Is this a hint of a tension between the early and late Universe, as typically presented, or between linear and non-linear scales?  On the eve of Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which will measure weak lensing with billions of galaxies, I will present new approaches to exploit these data and test the scale-dependence of the cosmological model.

Professor Alexandra Amon, Princeton University, USA

Professor Alexandra Amon, Princeton University, USA

12:15-12:30 Discussion

Chair

Ruth Durrer

Dr Ruth Durrer, University of Geneva, Switzerland

13:30-14:00 Do we understand the growth of structure over cosmic time? A CMB Lensing story

The standard LCDM model fit to CMB observations offers a precise prediction for the growth of structure over the 13.8 billion year history of the universe. Direct measurements of structure from galaxy surveys however do not seem to be perfectly concordant with this prediction. I will present a new mass map from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) that uses lensing of the CMB itself to test cosmic concordance of structure growth over 9 billion years. I will also review how recent and ongoing cross-correlations using this mass map sketch a path towards disentangling new physics and astrophysical systematics.

Professor Mathew Madhavacheril, University of Pennsylvania, USA

Professor Mathew Madhavacheril, University of Pennsylvania, USA

14:00-14:15 Discussion
14:15-14:45 The ISW puzzle

The Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect from stacking Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) images of superclusters and voids persists as a challenge to the concordance LambdaCDM paradigms. Stacking large and deep voids produces a signal 4-5 times the expectation. While the density of superstructures has limited the significance of the ISW tension compared to the Hubble or the S8/lensing-is-low tensions, its existence suggests a late-time alteration to the expansion history. The CMB Cold Spot, the most significant anomaly, resulted in the discovery of the Eridanus Supervoid, one of the most enormous known structures. Bayesian statistics and a later DES analysis suggest it is responsible for the Cold Spot, assuming a four times larger amplitude than the standard LambdaCDM prediction. We have proposed the AvERA model that tracks coarse-grained inhomogeneities of the matter distribution in an N-body simulation. The AvERA expansion history provides a "late solution" to the Hubble-constant tension with emerging curvature taking the role of Dark Energy, is consistent with all principal CMB and large-scale structure measurements, and solves the ISW puzzle. In addition, it predicts a sign reversal of the ISW effect that has been recently confirmed, albeit at a moderate significance, with eBOSS quasars. Deep and wide galaxy surveys, such as Euclid, will soon confirm or refute the sign reversal of the ISW effect, increase the overall statistical significance of the findings, and settle whether the ISW puzzle necessitates any significant modification to the concordance LambdaCDM paradigm.

Professor István Szapudi, University of Hawai‘i, USA

Professor István Szapudi, University of Hawai‘i, USA

14:45-15:00 Discussion
15:00-15:30 Break
15:30-16:00 The Ellis-Baldwin test

The standard cosmological model LCDM is described by the Friedman-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker metric, which requires that the universe be isotropic and homogeneous on large scales, an assumption called the Cosmological Principle. If this assumption is accurate, then the dipole anisotropy observed in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) should be due to our motion with respect to large-scale structure, which can be tested by measuring the corresponding dipole predicted in counts of cosmologically distant sources. This consistency test, first suggested in 1984 by Ellis & Baldwin, became possible in the 21st century with the advent of large catalogues of radio sources and quasars. I this talk, I will review the key observational results of the Ellis-Baldwin test, which have revealed a significant disagreement with predictions, challenging a foundational assumption of modern cosmology.

Nathan Secrest, US Naval Observatory, USA

Nathan Secrest, US Naval Observatory, USA

16:00-16:15 Discussion
16:15-16:45 The Cosmological Principle and the kinematic dipole

The Cosmological Principle is part of the foundation that underpins the standard model of the Universe. In the era of precision cosmology, when stress tests of the standard model are uncovering various tensions and possible anomalies, it is critical to check the viability of this principle. I will discuss various ways we can test this principle in a model independent way, and focus on a key test which is the consistency between the kinematic dipoles of the cosmic microwave background and of the large-scale matter distribution. Results using radio continuum and quasar samples indicate a rough agreement in the directions of the two dipoles, but a larger than expected amplitude of the matter dipole. The resulting tension with the radiation dipole has been estimated at ∼5σ for some cases, suggesting a potential new cosmological tension and a possible violation of the CP. However, the standard formalism for predicting the dipole in the two-dimensional projection of sources overlooks possible evolution effects in the luminosity function. In fact, radial information from the luminosity function is necessary for a correct projection of the three-dimensional source distribution. Using a variety of current models of the quasar luminosity function, we show that neglecting redshift evolution can significantly overestimate the relative velocity amplitude. While the models we investigate are consistent with each other and with current data, the dipole derived from these, which depends on derivatives of the luminosity function, can disagree by more than 3σ. This theoretical systematic bias needs to be resolved before robust conclusions can be made about a new cosmic tension.

Professor Chris Clarkson, Queen Mary University of London, UK

Professor Chris Clarkson, Queen Mary University of London, UK

16:45-17:00 Discussion

Chair

Pedro Ferreira

Professor Pedro Ferreira, University of Oxford, UK

09:00-09:30 Investigating ultra-large large-scale structures: potential implications for cosmology

Large-scale structures (LSSs) are often mapped with faint galaxies in the near-redshift Universe or very luminous objects in the distant-redshift Universe. I present a novel method of mapping LSS of faint matter at intermediate redshifts, interpreted from the MgII absorption doublets present in the spectra of background quasars. An important advantage of this MgII method is its precise spectroscopic redshifts, which might then allow for the discovery of intriguing features that could otherwise be blurred beyond detection with other methods.

This MgII method of mapping LSS has indeed led to two intriguing LSS discoveries already: the Giant Arc and the Big Ring. I present their details here. Both structures are in the same “cosmological neighbourhood” — at the same redshift z~0.8 and with a separation on the sky of only ~12°. Both structures exceed the frequently cited scale of homogeneity (Yadav+ 2010), so, individually and together, these striking structures must add to the questions on the validity of the Cosmological Principle (CP). (I briefly mention some of the different interpretations of the CP that can be found in the literature.) It may be that the Giant Arc and the Big Ring are hinting at new aspects of cosmology beyond the Concordance Model.

Alexia Lopez, University of Central Lancashire, UK

Alexia Lopez, University of Central Lancashire, UK

09:30-09:45 Discussion
09:45-10:15 Probing the isotropy of the local Universe with galaxy clusters

The isotropy of cosmic expansion and the dissipation of bulk flows at >150 Mpc scales are crucial assumption of LCDM; as such, they should be scrutinized observationally. Multiwavelength scaling relations of galaxy clusters are a powerful tool to test the isotropy of the local Universe in numerous independent ways since these relations strongly depend on cosmological assumptions. Using 540 clusters with X-ray, infrared, and Sunyaev-Zeldovich data we construct and utilize 10 scaling relations to robustly detect an apparent 9% angular variation of the Hubble constant (H0) at a 5 sigma level. This anomaly is consistently found in independent cluster samples and multiwavelength scaling relations, and it cannot be alleviated by an exhaustive list of possible systematic biases. The apparent local H0 anisotropy could be alternatively attributed to a 900±200 km/s cluster bulk flow extending up to 500 Mpc. Both of these scenarios strongly contradict LCDM in the local Universe. New scaling relations with higher precision and newly acquired X-ray and optical cluster data confirm the previous findings. Moreover, they suggest that the observed H0 anisotropy mostly emerges from within <800 Mpc. Furthermore, we use the 1st eROSITA cluster catalog, the largest X-ray cluster catalog ever constructed, to test the angular variation of H0. Interestingly, a preliminary analysis of the catalog independently supports the existence of a cosmic anisotropy within 800 Mpc. Finally, we use state-of-the-art cosmological, hydrodynamical simulations to better understand the rarity of the observed H0 variation within simulated LCDM universes.

Dr Konstantinos Migkas, Leiden University, The Netherlands

Dr Konstantinos Migkas, Leiden University, The Netherlands

10:15-10:30 Discussion
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-11:30 Challenges to the standard cosmological model from large-scale bulk flow estimates

The Cosmological Principle demands that the motions of galaxies averaged over a large enough sphere should become small. Thus, the Large-Scale Bulk Flow is an important test of this principle and of the Standard Cosmological Model more generally. While hints of anomalous Bulk Flows have been reported for decades, in the past few years the quality and quantity of peculiar velocity data has improved to where Bulk Flows can put meaningful constraints on our models. We present estimates of the Bulk Flow in volumes of increasing radii using the minimum variance method with data from the CosmicFlows4 catalogue. Contrary to expectations, we find that the Bulk Flow amplitude increases with increasing radius, with the Bulk Flow amplitude in a volume of radius 200$h^{−1}$Mpc being large enough to have only a 0.003% chance of occurring in the Standard Model.  We discuss the detailed characteristics of the Large-Scale Bulk Flow with an eye to better understand its origin.

Professor Richard Watkins, Willamette University, USA

Professor Richard Watkins, Willamette University, USA

11:30-11:45 Discussion
11:45-12:15 Do supernovae indicate an accelerating Universe?

The lightcurves of Type Ia supernovae have been analysed assuming that they are standardisable candles, leading to the conclusion that the expansion rate of the Universe is accelerating. While the original claims in the 1990s were made using only around 100 supernovae, observations of over 2000 supernovae are now available. Meanwhile the usual practice of analysing data in the Cosmic Rest Frame (in which the Universe is presumed to be isotropic) has been challenged by the absence of convergence to this frame in the local peculiar velocity field, as well as the radio/quasar dipole anomaly. We analyse the new supernova datasets and find that the acceleration of the expansion rate is unequivocally anisotropic in our (heliocentric) frame of reference. Thus, it cannot be due to a Cosmological Constant but may be a general relativistic effect due to our local bulk flow. 

Dr Mohamed Rameez, Tata Institute for Fundamental Research, Mumbai, India

Dr Mohamed Rameez, Tata Institute for Fundamental Research, Mumbai, India

12:15-12:30 Discussion

Chair

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Professor Joseph Silk FRS, University of Oxford, UK, Institut Astrophysique de Paris, France and Johns Hopkins University, USA

13:30-14:00 S-matrix constraints on dark energy (online talk)

The speaker will discuss constraints imposed on cosmology by the S-matrix formulation of quantum gravity. By consistency, this formulation eliminates any eternally inflating de Sitter landscape, thereby, excluding the cosmological constant from the energy budget of our Universe and restricting the nature of dark energy. Absence of a de Sitter landscape has profound implications for other fundamental puzzles, such as the strong-CP problem, making the existence of an axion mandatory.

Professor Gia Dvali, Ludwig Maximilian University and Max Planck Institute, Munich

Professor Gia Dvali, Ludwig Maximilian University and Max Planck Institute, Munich

14:00-14:15 Discussion
14:15-14:45 Reflecting the Universe in a mirror

Observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) have cemented the notion that the large-scale Universe is both homogeneous and isotropic, i.e. it is invariant under translations and rotations. But is it invariant also under (point) reflections? Recent observations have challenged this paradigm, giving tentative evidence for new parity-violating processes at work in the Universe. In this talk, I will discuss the two key measurements: the polarization rotation of the CMB (“cosmic birefringence”) and the asymmetric distribution of galaxy tetrahedra. Whilst such exciting results necessitate careful scrutiny, the potential implications for new physics are intriguing. Birefringence could indicate axion-like interactions in the late Universe, whilst the galaxy detection may imply parity-breaking physics occurring in inflation. Focussing on the galaxy distribution, I will assess the feasibility of novel primordial phenomena alongside more banal resolutions such as systematic errors. To solve this cosmic conundrum, we require additional information: I will discuss new measurements of inflationary parity-violation from the CMB temperature and polarization, as well as improved numerical calibration with simulations. Whilst systematics may prove to be the most likely cause of these tensions, the parity-violating sector nevertheless represents an intriguing new dataset with which to probe the early and late Universe.

Dr Oliver HE Philcox, Columbia University and Simons Foundation, USA

Dr Oliver HE Philcox, Columbia University and Simons Foundation, USA

14:45-15:00 Discussion
15:00-15:30 Break
15:30-16:00 Future directions in cosmology

Cosmology is entering a very exciting time in its history, when a wealth of state-of-the-art experiments are all starting to collect data, or about to. These experiments aim at addressing some of the most intriguing questions in fundamental physics, such as what is the nature of dark matter, is dark energy a cosmological constant or a varying field, what are the masses of the neutrinos, and more. While Lambda-CDM has emerged as a simple model that explains most of the current data sets, we’re starting to see some interesting deviations that deserve further explorations. This talk will provide an overview of upcoming projects and the science opportunities they will allow. We will put some of the most recent results and outstanding questions in the perspective of the forthcoming observational programme.

Professor Nathalie Palanque-Delabrouille, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA

Professor Nathalie Palanque-Delabrouille, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA

16:00-16:15 Discussion
16:15-17:00 Panel discussion
Professor Subir Sarkar, University of Oxford, UK

Professor Subir Sarkar, University of Oxford, UK

Professor James Binney FRS, University of Oxford, UK

Professor James Binney FRS, University of Oxford, UK

Dr Roya Mohayaee, Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris, France

Dr Roya Mohayaee, Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris, France

Professor John Peacock FRS, University of Edinburgh, UK

Professor John Peacock FRS, University of Edinburgh, UK

Dr Ruth Durrer, University of Geneva, Switzerland

Dr Ruth Durrer, University of Geneva, Switzerland

Professor Pedro Ferreira, University of Oxford, UK

Professor Pedro Ferreira, University of Oxford, UK

Professor Joseph Silk FRS, University of Oxford, UK, Institut Astrophysique de Paris, France and Johns Hopkins University, USA

Professor Joseph Silk FRS, University of Oxford, UK, Institut Astrophysique de Paris, France and Johns Hopkins University, USA

Professor John Ellis CBE FRS, King’s College London, UK

Professor John Ellis CBE FRS, King’s College London, UK