Next generation ice-sheet bed measurements

06 - 07 May 2025 09:00 - 17:00 Apex Grassmarket Hotel, Edinburgh Free
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Image of ice-sheet beds

Theo Murphy meeting organised by Dr Martin Siegert, Dr Richard Alley FRS, Dr Dorthe Dahl-Jensen and Dr Christine Dow.

Projections of sea-level rise under strong warming are greatly uncertain, with estimates for 2100 varying by more than 1 m and far greater thereafter. Of the sources of uncertainty, lack of knowledge of ice-sheet bed topography and material composition is important and addressable, but requires coordination to focus on the most important regions in a timely manner. This meeting will discuss the benefits of bespoke optimised surveys of the polar ice sheets, the technology available to conduct it and the international collaborations, logistics and permissions necessary to make such surveys possible. 

Programme

The programme, including the speaker biographies and abstracts, will be available soon.

Attending this event

  • Free to attend and in-person only
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Enquiries: contact the Scientific Programmes team

Organisers

  • Professor Martin Siegert FRSE, University of Exeter, UK

    Professor Martin Siegert

    Martin Siegert is Professor of Geosciences and co-Director of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London. He was formerly Head of the School of GeoSciences and Assistant Principal for Energy and Climate Change at the University of Edinburgh, where he led the creation of the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation (ECCI). He received his from PhD Cambridge University, completing his thesis on the numerical modelling of large ice sheets at the Scott Polar Research Institute. Siegert’s research interests are in the field of glaciology. He uses geophysical techniques to quantify the flow and form of ice sheets both now and in the past. Siegert has appeared regularly on TV and radio to discuss his research, including BBC Radio 4’s Life Scientific in August 2012. In 2007 he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. He was awarded the 2013 Martha T Muse Prize in Antarctic Science and Policy.

  • Professor Richard B Alley ForMemRS, Pennsylvania State University, USA

    Professor Richard B Alley ForMemRS

    Dr Richard B Alley (PhD 1987 Wisconsin; Evan Pugh University Professor, Geosciences, Penn State) studies the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to help predict future climate and sea-level changes.  He has been honoured for research, teaching, and service, including election to the US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society.  He participated in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (co-recipient, 2007 Nobel Peace Prize), and provided requested advice to high government officials from both major political parties in the USA.  He has authored or co-authored over 400 scholarly publications.  His was presenter for the PBS TV miniseries Earth: The Operators’ Manual, based on his book.  His popular account of climate change and ice cores, The Two-Mile Time Machine, was Phi Beta Kappa’s science book of the year.  He is happily married with two grown daughters, two stay-at-home cats, a bicycle, and a pair of soccer cleats.

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    Professor Dorthe Dahl-Jensen

     Dorthe Dahl-Jensen is professor in Ice Physics at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen. She heads the Centre of Excellence for Ice and Climate with the focus to use ice core data to improve our understanding of the past, the present and the future climate. In addition she leads the deep drilling program NEEM on the Greenland Ice Sheet with participation of researchers from 14 nations. The research of Dorthe Dahl-Jensen includes reconstruction of climate records from ice cores and borehole data and construction of ice flow models to date ice cores. The history and evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet especially in the previous warm interglacial is the present focus of her research. In addition she coordinates the EU FP7 programme Past4Future and has an ERC Advanced grant WATERundertheICE. Dorthe Dahl-Jensen is lead author of the chapter “The Greenland Ice Sheet in a Changing Climate” of the Arctic Council AMAP report “Climate Change and the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic”. She is member of the Danish Climate Commission that produced a report: Green Energy – the road to a Danish energy system without fossil fuels.

  • Dr Christine Dow, University of Waterloo, Canada

    Associate Professor Christine Dow

    Dr Christine Dow is an Associate Professor at the University of Waterloo, Ontario, and the Canada Research Chair in Glacier Hydrology and Ice Dynamics. Her research combines numerical modelling and geophysical field experiments to explore the role of subglacial water in influencing ice dynamics. Currently, her work focuses on the Antarctic and the Yukon, Canada, where her research group runs fully coupled models of subglacial hydrology and ice flow. In Antarctica, these models are applied both at the basin and continental scale to investigate past, present, and future ice conditions. In the St. Elias Mountains of the Yukon, field campaigns involve borehole drilling to assess basal water conditions, helicopter-based radar surveys to measure ice thickness, and dGPS measurements to track ice velocity, providing critical data for model input and validation.

Schedule

Chair

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Professor Dorthe Dahl-Jensen

Niels Bohr Institute, Denmark

09:00-09:05 Welcome by the Royal Society and lead organiser
09:05-09:30 State of Art. Bedmap3 (Antarctica), BedmachineV3 (Greenland) and ice sheet modelling
Professor Mathieu Morlighem

Professor Mathieu Morlighem

Dartmouth College, USA

09:30-09:55 Bedmap 3
Dr Hamish Pritchard

Dr Hamish Pritchard

British Antarctic Survey, UK

09:55-10:20 An evaluation of synthetic bed topographies for ice sheet modelling

Bed topography plays a pivotal role in shaping the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, controlling ice flow dynamics, grounding line retreat, subglacial hydrological processes, and ice shelf melt rates. Despite its importance, Antarctic bed topography remains sparsely sampled, resulting in significant uncertainties in bed datasets that propagate in ice sheet model simulations. Synthetic bed topography datasets, generated using mass conservation methods, geostatistical approaches, and other multi-method integrations, are increasingly utilised ice sheet modelling applications. Here, we explore the role of synthetic bed topographies in advancing ice sheet modelling. We review methodologies for generating synthetic topographies, their applications in modelling ice flow, and examine the impact of topographic uncertainties on simulated ice and subglacial water flow in the Aurora Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica.

Dr Felicity McCormack

Dr Felicity McCormack

Monash University, Australia

10:20-10:30 Discussion I - bed DEMs
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-11:25 Use of AI and ML in survey design
Dr Steven Palmer

Dr Steven Palmer

University of Exeter, UK

11:25-11:50 Survey needs at ice sheet grounding zones
Dr Kenichi Matsuoka

Dr Kenichi Matsuoka

Norwegian Polar Institute, Norway

11:50-12:30 Discussion II - survey design

Chair

Professor Richard B Alley ForMemRS, Pennsylvania State University, USA

Professor Richard B Alley ForMemRS

Pennsylvania State University, USA

13:30-13:55 Modelling past and future sea level rise
Professor Rob DeConto

Professor Rob DeConto

University of Massachusetts, USA

13:55-14:20 Bed topography and ice sheet behaviour
14:20-14:45 Are continental scale Antarctic simulations still relevant?

Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the coming century continue to dominate uncertainties in sea level projections. Despite a decade of rapid progress in numerical modelling of ice sheet flow - including the addition of new processes and the validation with a rapidly growing number of remote-sensing observations - the ability of continental scale simulations to capture recent changes in Antarctic dynamics remains limited. While uncertainties arise from a number of factors, including the choice of climate forcing, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and processes captured, the choice of ice sheet model itself is the dominant source of uncertainty for both decadal and century time scales. 

In this presentation, we will assess the viability of using continental scale simulations and explore whether regional or basin-scale models may provide more robust insights. We will first review recent results on Antarctic ice sheet projections and the main sources of uncertainty in these projections. We will then compare results performed at continental scale with regional scale models of the Amundsen Sea Sector and Wilkes Land, as well as models simulating individual glaciers for these two regions. We will compare uncertainty coming from these three spatial scales with uncertainty stemming from the choice of climate model, scenario, as well as uncertainties in bedrock elevation. Our results will highlight differences in the model’s simulated ice mass loss and grounding line retreat, and provide a new perspective on how to refine Antarctic ice sheet projections and improve confidence in future sea level rise estimates.

Associate Professor Hélène Seroussi

Associate Professor Hélène Seroussi

Dartmouth College, USA

14:45-15:00 Discussion III - integrating with modelling
15:00-15:30 Break
15:30-15:55 Antarctic grounding zone and bedrock: the interplay shaping Antarctic sea-level contribution

The Antarctic ice sheet's grounding zone, the critical transition between grounded ice and floating ice shelves, exerts a profound influence on ice flow and therefore global sea-level rise. Its dynamics is highly sensitive to ocean temperature and bed topography and accurate sea-level projections hinge on understanding these processes. Rapid changes in grounding line position, driven by ocean warming or ice shelf buttressing, can trigger significant ice mass loss through accelerated ice flow.

However, the complex and often poorly constrained bed topography beneath the ice sheet grounding zone introduces substantial uncertainty into ice sheet models. Bed roughness, subglacial channels, saltwater intrusion, and bedrock slope directly impact ice flow velocity and basal melt rates. Current topographic datasets, relying on sparse radar and seismic measurements, often lack the resolution needed to capture crucial bedrock features in grounding zone. This uncertainty propagates into sea-level rise projections, hindering our ability to accurately predict future coastal inundation. In this presentation, we will review knowledge of the current understanding of grounding line and grounding zone dynamics and how improved measurement of bed topography in these regions is essential to refine ice sheet models and reduce the range of uncertainty in sea-level predictions.

Professor Sophie Nowicki

Professor Sophie Nowicki

University at Buffalo, USA

15:55-16:20 Modelling basal hyrdology and ice flow
Dr Shivani Ehrenfeucht

Dr Shivani Ehrenfeucht

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany

16:20-17:00 Discussion IV - benefits to modelling from improved DEMs

Chair

Dr Christine Dow, University of Waterloo, Canada

Associate Professor Christine Dow

University of Waterloo, Canada

09:00-09:30 Panel Discussion
09:30-10:00 Time-series radar sounding as the next key ice-sheet observable

Ice penetrating radar observation of bed echoes is a core geophysical geophysical technique for observational glaciology.  In the beginning these data were collected as part of real exploration and mapping and so places were there little or no data were often prioritized. This has led to very few time-series observations of radar sounding profiles. Although the few we do have have been very impactful. In the meantime, there have been major advances in radar sounding instruments, platforms, and analysis approaches and the information they make available are dramatically opening up the possibility space for future observations, experiments, and missions. Here, we discuss these advances and possibilities and the opportunities they present for "next generation" observations. To this end we explore the relative reflectivity signatures both as 1-time mapping observables, both as a baseline for time series and as an end in-and-of-itself for one-time model/assimilation informed mapping by a (comparatively) rich instrument suite. We also (especially) investigate mapping as part of a time-series of radar sounding profiles to observe changes in bed echo power profiles. Based on this analysis, we argue that time-series observations of bed echoes and englacial layers should be the next key observational priority to constrain ice sheet processes and conditions and for future sea level projections. In this context we also discuss the detectability of both static and evolving subglacial water bodies (including ocean intrusion in the grounding zone). And we also discuss this implication of this mapping  for platforms and instruments.

Professor Dustin Schroeder

Professor Dustin Schroeder

Stanford University, USA

10:00-10:30 Swath radar in glaciology 1
Associate Professor Knut Christianson

Associate Professor Knut Christianson

University of Washington, USA

10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-11:30 High-resolution bed topography from radar swath imaging to infer ice stream dynamics

Radar swath imaging provides high-resolution 3D data sets of an ice sheets basal interface. To demonstrate the capabilities, we investigate the onset region of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), which dominates the flow features of the Greenland Ice Sheet, recognisable almost 600 km inland, and extends close to the central ice divide. Numerical ice sheet models are unable to accurately reproduce the configuration of the NEGIS, but understanding its bed properties and spatial and temporal evolution is critical to predicting its future contribution to sea-level change. Here, we use swath radar imaging to create a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model of the bed close to where the NEGIS initiates. The data set has a horizontal resolution of 25 m and 10 m vertical, covering 40 x 60 km2. Surprisingly, the data set reveals mega-scale glacial lineations (MSGLs) that are often assumed to be indicative of rapid ice stream flow (100s m yr-1), under present day flow velocities of only ~60 m yr-1. Given that MSGLs are thought to form under much higher flow velocities, their presence so far inland at an onset zone raises important questions about their formation and preservation under ice streams, as well as past configurations of the NEGIS. Elongate bedrock landforms outside the current shear margins also suggest that the NEGIS was wider than its present configuration at some point in the past. Our example shows that radar swath imaging is a game changer for characterizing subglacial properties and interpreting ice dynamics.

Professor Olaf Eisen

Professor Olaf Eisen

Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Germany

11:30-11:50 Discussion V - new systems and instruments
11:50-12:30 Discussion VI

Chair

Professor Martin Siegert FRSE, University of Exeter, UK

Professor Martin Siegert

University of Exeter, UK

13:30-13:55 Coordinating nation polar programmes
Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMG

Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMG

British Antarctic Survey, UK

13:55-14:25 International policy engagement on sea level rise
Ms Pam Pearson

Ms Pam Pearson

International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, Sweden

14:25-15:00 Discussion VII - international logistics and operations
15:00-15:30 Break
15:30-15:55 NSF-SPRI-TUD survey
Professor David Drewry

Professor David Drewry

UK Commission for UNESCO, UK

16:00-17:00 Final panel discussion