Global impacts of climate extremes in the polar regions: is Antarctica reaching a tipping point?

Also in “ Scientific meeting”
Discussion meeting organised by Professor Katherine Hendry, Dame Jane Francis DCMG FRS, Professor Michael Meredith, Professor Geraint Tarling, Dr Alexander Brearley, Professor Dominic Hodgson, and Dr Peter Davis.
The past two years have witnessed unprecedented extremes in the Antarctic linked to climate change, including exceptionally low winter sea ice and accelerated melting of ice. This meeting will bring together scientists and stakeholders for an urgent discussion on what we know about these recent events, whether they represent a climatic tipping point, and what the global impact of crossing such a threshold will be.
Programme
The programme, including speaker biographies and abstracts, will be available soon. Please note the programme may be subject to change.
Poster session
There will be a poster session from 17:00 on Monday 29 September 2025. If you would like to present a poster, please submit your proposed title, abstract (up to 200 words), author list, and the name of the proposed presenter and institution no later than 31 August 2025.
Attending the event
This event is intended for researchers in relevant fields
- Free to attend
- Both virtual and in-person attendance is available. Advance registration is essential. Please follow the link register.
- Lunch is available on both days of the meeting for an optional £25 per day. There are plenty of places to eat nearby if you would prefer to purchase food offsite. Participants are welcome to bring their own lunch to the meeting.
Enquiries: Scientific Programmes team.
Organisers
Schedule
Chair

Professor Mike Meredith
British Antarctic Survey, UK

Professor Mike Meredith
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Professor Michael Meredith is an ocean/climate scientist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), and Professorial Fellow in Oceanography at Murray Edwards College, University of Cambridge. He created and led the Polar Oceans team at BAS, which has research foci on determining the role of the polar oceans on global climate, the ice sheets, and the interdisciplinary ocean system. He is a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, and a NERC Individual Merit Promotion (Band 2) scientist. He was the inaugural chair of the Southern Ocean Observing System, and served as Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In 2018, Michael was awarded the Tinker-Muse Prize for Science and Policy in Antarctica, and the Challenger Medal for contributions for Marine Science. In 2021, Michael was elected to serve as President of the Challenger Society for Marine Science, the UK's pre-eminent learned body for research of the ocean.
09:00-09:10 |
Welcome by the Royal Society and organising committee
![]() Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMGBritish Antarctic Survey, UK ![]() Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMGBritish Antarctic Survey, UK Jane is Director of the British Antarctic Survey. She is involved with international polar organisations, such as the Antarctic Treaty and European Polar Board, and on several advisory boards of national polar programmes. Jane Francis is a geologist by training, with research interests in past climates, especially the change from greenhouse to icehouse climates in the polar regions over the past 100 million years. She has undertaken over 15 scientific expeditions to the Arctic and Antarctica in search of fossil forests and information about climates of the past. Jane was appointed Dame Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George (DCMG) in recognition of services to UK polar science and diplomacy. She was awarded the UK Polar Medal, the Royal Geographical Society’s Patron’s Medal, the 2022 Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation Award for Planetary Health and is a Fellow of the Royal Society. |
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09:10-09:30 |
Setting the scene: why extreme events and why Antarctica?
![]() Professor Martin SiegertUniversity of Exeter, UK ![]() Professor Martin SiegertUniversity of Exeter, UK Martin Siegert is a glaciologist, geophysicist and climate scientist. He uses geophysical measurements to investigate the flow and form of large ice sheets, and to understand processes operating in the past, now and in the future. He has published on subglacial environments, including on subglacial lakes, and on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet and continent. He has been a UK delegate to SCAR, and has led several SCAR activities and programmes. He was awarded the 2013 Martha T Muse Prize for Antarctic Science and Policy. He led the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London between 2014 and 2022 and is now Deputy Vice Chancellor (Cornwall) at Exeter University. |
09:30-09:50 |
Oceans - speaker to be confirmed
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09:50-10:10 |
Extreme events in the Antarctic cryosphere: state of play
Recent decades have seen a series of extreme events in the Antarctic cryosphere. Amongst these have been collapse of ice shelves, surface melting and ponding on margins of the ice sheet, and large snowfall anomalies. Some of these events have been linked in cascades with links to extreme events in the ocean and atmosphere, and themselves have impacts felt beyond the cryosphere. The geological record of ice sheets provides evidence of other extreme events that affected the Antarctic cryosphere, such as abrupt thinning and retreat intervals. Here we provide a summary of the state of knowledge of Antarctic cryosphere extreme events, including an update of improvements in understanding, and assessments of events occurring since the Siegert et al (2023) paper on Antarctic Extreme Events. ![]() Professor Michael BentleyDurham University, UK ![]() Professor Michael BentleyDurham University, UK Michael Bentley is a polar geoscientist with wide research interests but a core focus on the past and future behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and on trying to reduce uncertainty in projections of future risk of sea level rise. He is particularly interested in how the Antarctic Ice Sheet has responded to period of climate warming, and have undertaken over 20 polar field seasons, mostly using geomorphology and innovate dating techniques to tackle the problem. |
10:10-10:30 |
Sea ice
![]() Professor Alexander HaumannAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany ![]() Professor Alexander HaumannAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany |
10:30-11:00 |
Discussion
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11:00-11:30 |
Break
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Chair

Dr Tom Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey, UK

Dr Tom Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Dr Tom Bracegirdle is deputy Science Leader of the Atmosphere, Ice and Climate Team at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). After completing a PhD in Meteorology in 2006 from the University of Reading, Dr Bracegirdle has been conducting research on polar climate and atmospheric dynamics at BAS. His main interests are polar storms and extreme weather events, large-scale atmospheric circulation, troposphere-stratosphere interactions, climate model evaluation, and quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate model projections. He currently leads a major NERC-funded project 'Drivers and Impacts of Extreme Weather Events in Antarctica' (ExtAnt). He also has leading roles internationally in the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA). More broadly, he is involved in a number of activities aimed at communicating the implications of polar climate change to the wider community, ranging from policymakers to the general public.
11:30-11:50 |
Atmosphere
![]() Dr Kyle ClemVictoria University of Wellington, New Zealand ![]() Dr Kyle ClemVictoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Kyle Clem is a Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at Victoria University of Wellington. His research focuses on Southern Hemisphere climate dynamics, with a particular interest in tropical-Antarctic teleconnections. He uses observations and climate model simulations to examine the role of tropical convection in triggering large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that result in extreme weather and climate events in Antarctica. One key area of research is determining what mechanisms generate atmospheric circulation patterns that transport extreme heat and moisture from sub-tropical latitudes to Antarctica, as these are often the most impactful events in terms of extreme temperature, precipitation, and surface melt. These patterns often occur from Rossby waves forced from tropical variability, highlighting that climate change and its impacts are globally interconnected, and what happens in the tropics can have major implications for Antarctica. Kyle serves as the Editor for the annual State of the Climate Report on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, is the lead-author of the Meteorology and Climate of Antarctica chapter in the recently published Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere monograph, and is a member of the SCAR AntClimNow Research Programme. |
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11:50-12:10 |
Ecosystems
![]() Dr Jennifer FreerBritish Antarctic Survey, UK ![]() Dr Jennifer FreerBritish Antarctic Survey, UK |
12:10-12:30 |
Discussion
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14:00-14:20 |
Past sea level jumps
![]() Professor Sarah WoodroffeDurham University, UK ![]() Professor Sarah WoodroffeDurham University, UK |
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14:20-14:40 |
Ice cores - speaker to be confirmed
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14:40-15:00 |
Palaeoceanography
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15:00-15:30 |
Discussion
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Chair

Professor Kate Hendry
British Antarctic Survey, UK

Professor Kate Hendry
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Professor Kate Hendry is a chemical oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey, and an honorary professor at the Universities of Bristol and East Anglia. Her research interests surround the impact on marine nutrient cycling of climate change in the polar regions.
Kate has published over 90 papers in international journals, and has won almost £5M in grant funding as Principal Investigator, and collaborated on several other national and international projects. She won the Geological Society of London Bigsby Medal in 2025 for services to geosciences, the EAG Houtermans medal in 2016, and a Challenge Society fellowship in 2012.
Kate is Chair of Antarctic Science Ltd, which runs the journal Antarctic Science, and the Antarctic Science International Bursary Scheme. She is vice chair of the UK Arctic and Antarctic Partnership, and is the geosciences representative in the UK National Committee for Antarctic Research (UKNCAR). She is honorary secretary of the Challenger Society for Marine Science, and established their Equity, Diversity, Inclusivity and Accessibility working group.
09:00-09:20 |
How will ice shelf melting respond to a warming climate?
Ice shelves, the floating extensions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, are melted from below by the ocean. Increased ice shelf melting is the main mechanism by which Antarctica currently contributes to global sea level rise. As melt rates are sensitive to temperature, salinity, and circulation in tiny pockets of the Southern Ocean, predicting how they might respond to climate change is not straightforward. Projecting future ice shelf melting is at the forefront of coupled Earth system modelling, as most climate and ocean models still do not include ice shelves at all. This talk will summarise what is and is not known about how ice-ocean interaction may respond to climate change. In some regions, such as the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, relatively warm ocean water already accesses the ice shelves. However, climate change is expected to make these regions warmer still, by increasing the volume of warm water flowing onshore. Other regions, such as Antarctica's largest ice shelves, the Ross and Filchner-Ronne, are currently bathed in cold water and melt rates are stable. Unfortunately, models predict that with sufficient climate change, these cavities could suddenly flip into a warm state similar to the Amundsen Sea. While some changes are likely already committed, other changes may or may not be triggered, depending how much the climate warms. Therefore, the trajectory of future carbon emissions will likely have a large impact on Antarctica's long-term contribution to sea level rise. ![]() Dr Kaitlin NaughtenBritish Antarctic Survey, UK ![]() Dr Kaitlin NaughtenBritish Antarctic Survey, UK Kaitlin Naughten is an ice, ocean, and climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey. She develops models to simulate interactions between the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the broader climate system. Kaitlin's research focuses on how ice shelf-ocean interactions change in responds to a warming climate. She studies warm ice shelf cavities which could get warmer (eg the Amundsen Sea) as well as cold cavities which could suddenly flip to a warm state (eg the Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves). Her research on West Antarctic ice shelf melting was the #7 most covered climate study of 2023 by the international media (Carbon Brief). Kaitlin is a member of the core development team for the UK Earth System Model, the world's first global climate model to include an Antarctic Ice Sheet fully coupled to the ocean. |
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09:20-09:40 |
Sea ice
![]() Professor Marylin RaphaelUniversity of California Los Angeles, USA ![]() Professor Marylin RaphaelUniversity of California Los Angeles, USA |
09:40-10:00 |
Atmospheric events
![]() Dr Irina GorodetskayaCIIMAR - Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research of the University of Porto, Portugal ![]() Dr Irina GorodetskayaCIIMAR - Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research of the University of Porto, Portugal |
10:00-10:30 |
Discussion
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10:30-11:00 |
Break
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Chair
Professor Nerilie Abram
Australian National University, Australia
Professor Nerilie Abram
Australian National University, Australia
Professor Nerilie Abram is a climate scientist at the Australian National University. Her research uses Antarctic ice cores to understand how Earth's climate behaved naturally in the past, and how human-caused climate warming is now changing Antarctica and its impacts on Australia. She has completed 5 expeditions to Antarctica, including leading the ice drilling camps for Australia Denman Terrestrial Campaign in 2023/24. She is a Deputy Director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, and was a coordinating lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report into the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In 2024 she was elected as a fellow of the Australian Academy of Science.
11:00-11:20 |
Ocean as a carbon source or sink
![]() Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRSUniversity of East Anglia, UK ![]() Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRSUniversity of East Anglia, UK Professor Corinne Le Quéré FRS CBE, is Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia, where she conducts research on the interactions between the carbon cycle and climate change, particularly those mediated by the world’s oceans. She leads two projects in the NERC’s programme on the Role of the Southern Ocean in the Earth System (RoSES), one examining Southern Ocean CO2 variability in recent decades, one exploring its evolution this century. More broadly, she spearheaded the development of marine carbon-cycle models with new ways to represent plankton diversity and ecology. She also led for over a decade the annual update of the ‘global carbon budget’, an international effort to keep track of global carbon emissions and their fate in the environment, and authored three assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). |
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11:20-11:40 |
Vulnerable ecosystems - speaker to be confirmed
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11:40-12:00 |
Sea level
![]() Professor Tamsin EdwardsKing's College London, UK ![]() Professor Tamsin EdwardsKing's College London, UK Professor Tamsin Edwards is a climate scientist specialising in quantifying the uncertainties of climate model predictions, particularly for the ice sheet and glacier contributions to sea level rise. She was a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report published in 2021. |
12:00-12:30 |
Discussion
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Chair

Mr Rod Downie
The Worldwide Fund for Nature, UK

Mr Rod Downie
The Worldwide Fund for Nature, UK
13:30-13:50 |
Southern Ocean Observing System
![]() Dr Sian HenleyUniversity of Edinburgh, UK ![]() Dr Sian HenleyUniversity of Edinburgh, UK |
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13:50-14:10 |
Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
![]() Dr Susie GrantBritish Antarctic Survey, UK ![]() Dr Susie GrantBritish Antarctic Survey, UK |
14:10-14:30 |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - speaker to be confirmed
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14:30-15:00 |
Discussion
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15:00-15:30 |
Break
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15:30-15:50 |
Adapting Southern Ocean ecosystem-based fisheries management to extreme events
The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is responsible for the conservation of Antarctic marine ecosystems, yet extreme events - such as marine heatwaves and storms - are disrupting these ecosystems, posing new challenges to CCAMLR's ecosystem-based fisheries management approach. While some progress has been made by CCAMLR in considering extreme events, practical action is lacking. This review examines current progress in integrating extreme events into ecosystem-based management and identifies critical gaps in understanding, predicting and responding to such events. Recent studies have demonstrated that extreme events significantly impact species' habitats, distribution, and key demographic factors such as breeding success and mortality rates, making it essential to incorporate the consideration of such events into management strategies. Drawing on recommendations from a recent CCAMLR workshop, we proposed improved approaches to data collection and analysis, including the development of predictive models that enhance understanding of the impacts of extreme events. We explore the integration of extreme event data into fisheries monitoring, the need for adaptive management policies and prioritisation of long-term resilience, and the strengthening of collaboration among relevant scientific disciplines, stakeholders, and policymakers. A more comprehensive and dynamic approach that explicitly incorporates extreme events is crucial for ensuring the sustainable management of Antarctic marine ecosystems amid the challenges posed by climate change. ![]() Dr Rachel CavanaghBritish Antarctic Survey, UK ![]() Dr Rachel CavanaghBritish Antarctic Survey, UK Dr Rachel Cavanagh is an Ecosystem Scientist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) with over two decades of experience encompassing interdisciplinary research, international programme leadership and technical advice for policy. Rachel holds a BSc in Applied Zoology and PhD in Population Ecology, and before joining BAS was Executive Officer of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Shark Specialist Group, leading efforts in global shark conservation and management. With a strong interest in the role of science in informing policy, Rachel's current research is focused on integrating climate change considerations into marine conservation and management. Rachel is a Scientific Advisor on the UK delegation to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resource (CCAMLR), Co-Chief Officer of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Flagship Scientific Research Programme Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System and serves on SCAR's Standing Committee on the Antarctic Treaty System. |
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15:50-16:10 |
International Panel on Climate Change and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
![]() Professor Hans-Otto PörtnerAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany ![]() Professor Hans-Otto PörtnerAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany Hans-Otto Pörtner is a researcher in marine ecophysiology and the impacts of climate change. He has established theory and evidence on effects of climate warming, ocean acidification, and hypoxia on marine animals and ecosystems. His efforts focus on linking biogeography and ecosystem functioning to molecular, biochemical and physiological mechanisms shaping organism tolerance and performance. In October 2015 he was elected Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II for its 6th assessment cycle. He is an elected member of the European Academy of Sciences, the German Advisory Council on Global Change and a Web of Science highly cited researcher 2018 award. |
16:10-16:30 |
Antarctic tipping points: implications for UK coastal sea-level rise and adaptation planning
Sea-level rise associated with warming of the climate system is characterised by long-term commitment for many centuries, with future ice sheet changes the dominant threat on these timescales. The current Environment Agency climate change allowances for UK sea-level rise by 2125 range from 1.0-1.6, depending on geographic region, with an H++ value of 1.9m for risk-averse decision makers (eg nuclear energy sector, long-lived infrastructure planning). However, poorly understood ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica could lead to global and UK sea-level rise of more than 10m by 2300, as highlighted in the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Even in the absence of such processes being triggered, the UK coastline is expected to see at least 1-2m of local sea-level rise by 2300, with strong regional variations. Given the large uncertainty in both global and UK sea-level rise, we present a flexible sea-level storylines framework that is designed to promote a risk-based assessment of future adaptation options in coastal planning. By combining our framework with a state-of-the-art UK flood model, we generate a first-order picture of the scale of the adaptation challenge under a range of future sea-level rise outcomes. Uncertainty in future projections, particularly those associated with Antarctic ice sheet instability processes, provide strong motivation for detailed observational monitoring and development of early warning indicators. ![]() Dr Matt PalmerMet Office Hadley Centre, UK ![]() Dr Matt PalmerMet Office Hadley Centre, UK Dr Matt Palmer is a Science Fellow at the Met Office Hadley Centre and Associate Professor in Climate Science at the University of Bristol. His expertise includes observations and projections of sea level change, Earth's energy budget and ocean subsurface observations. Matt led the sea level work for the UK National Climate Projections (UKCP18) that included development of pioneering multi-century sea-level projections in response to stakeholder needs. He has worked on a variety of international projects providing sea level projections and observational analysis for other parts of the world. Matt was a Lead Author on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR6) where his contributions included leading the assessment of the global energy and sea level budgets. |
16:30-17:00 |
Discussion
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17:00-17:15 |
Closing remarks - speaker to be confirmed
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