Global impacts of climate extremes in the polar regions: is Antarctica reaching a tipping point?

29 - 30 September 2025 09:00 - 17:00 The Royal Society Free Watch online
Register now

Discussion meeting organised by Professor Katherine Hendry, Dame Jane Francis DCMG FRS, Professor Michael Meredith, Professor Geraint Tarling, Dr Alexander Brearley, Professor Dominic Hodgson, and Dr Peter Davis.

The past two years have witnessed unprecedented extremes in the Antarctic linked to climate change, including exceptionally low winter sea ice and accelerated melting of ice. This meeting will bring together scientists and stakeholders for an urgent discussion on what we know about these recent events, whether they represent a climatic tipping point, and what the global impact of crossing such a threshold will be.

Programme

The programme, including speaker biographies and abstracts, will be available soon. Please note the programme may be subject to change.

Poster session

There will be a poster session from 17:00 on Monday 29 September 2025. If you would like to present a poster, please submit your proposed title, abstract (up to 200 words), author list, and the name of the proposed presenter and institution no later than 31 August 2025.

Attending the event

This event is intended for researchers in relevant fields

  • Free to attend
  • Both virtual and in-person attendance is available. Advance registration is essential. Please follow the link register.
  • Lunch is available on both days of the meeting for an optional £25 per day. There are plenty of places to eat nearby if you would prefer to purchase food offsite. Participants are welcome to bring their own lunch to the meeting.

Enquiries: Scientific Programmes team.

Organisers

  • Professor Kate Hendry, British Antarctic Survey, UK

    Professor Kate Hendry

    Professor Kate Hendry is a chemical oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey, and an honorary professor at the Universities of Bristol and East Anglia. Her research interests surround the impact on marine nutrient cycling of climate change in the polar regions.

    Kate has published over 90 papers in international journals, and has won almost £5M in grant funding as Principal Investigator, and collaborated on several other national and international projects. She won the Geological Society of London Bigsby Medal in 2025 for services to geosciences, the EAG Houtermans medal in 2016, and a Challenge Society fellowship in 2012.

    Kate is Chair of Antarctic Science Ltd, which runs the journal Antarctic Science, and the Antarctic Science International Bursary Scheme. She is vice chair of the UK Arctic and Antarctic Partnership, and is the geosciences representative in the UK National Committee for Antarctic Research (UKNCAR). She is honorary secretary of the Challenger Society for Marine Science, and established their Equity, Diversity, Inclusivity and Accessibility working group.

  • Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMG, British Antarctic Survey, UK

    Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMG

    Jane is Director of the British Antarctic Survey. She is involved with international polar organisations, such as the Antarctic Treaty and European Polar Board, and on several advisory boards of national polar programmes. 

    Jane Francis is a geologist by training, with research interests in past climates, especially the change from greenhouse to icehouse climates in the polar regions over the past 100 million years. She has undertaken over 15 scientific expeditions to the Arctic and Antarctica in search of fossil forests and information about climates of the past.

    Jane was appointed Dame Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George (DCMG) in recognition of services to UK polar science and diplomacy. She was awarded the UK Polar Medal, the Royal Geographical Society’s Patron’s Medal, the 2022 Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation Award for Planetary Health and is a Fellow of the Royal Society.

  • Professor Michael Meredith, British Antarctic Survey, UK

    Professor Mike Meredith

    Professor Michael Meredith is an ocean/climate scientist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), and Professorial Fellow in Oceanography at Murray Edwards College, University of Cambridge. He created and led the Polar Oceans team at BAS, which has research foci on determining the role of the polar oceans on global climate, the ice sheets, and the interdisciplinary ocean system. He is a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, and a NERC Individual Merit Promotion (Band 2) scientist. He was the inaugural chair of the Southern Ocean Observing System, and served as Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In 2018, Michael was awarded the Tinker-Muse Prize for Science and Policy in Antarctica, and the Challenger Medal for contributions for Marine Science. In 2021, Michael was elected to serve as President of the Challenger Society for Marine Science, the UK's pre-eminent learned body for research of the ocean.

  • Professor Geraint Tarling, British Antarctic Survey, UK

    Professor Geraint Tarling

    Professor Geraint Tarling is a biological oceanographer focusing on the polar regions. Over his 25 year career, he has worked at the National Oceanography Centre, the Scottish Association for Marine Science and the British Antarctic Survey, where he now leads the Ecosystems team. His research has tackled a number of issues considering how influences of marine organisms at small scales have major impacts on large-scale processes. He has contributed particularly to our understanding of how marine ecosystems transport and sequester carbon, with wider implications to the regulation of global climate. Most recently, he is the Principal Scientist for BIOPOLE, a £9M multi-institute UK programme determining how marine ecosystem in both polar regions help regulate the balance of carbon and nutrients in the world's oceans and their influence on global fish stocks and carbon storage.

  • blank avatar

    Dr Alexander Brearley

  • blank avatar

    Professor Dominic A Hodgson

    Dominic Hodgson is a Quaternary Scientist at the British Antarctic Survey and Visiting Professor of Geography at Durham University specialising in high latitude climate and environmental change. He publishes on Antarctic glacial history, late glacial and Holocene climate change, technologies for subglacial sediment access and sampling, and collaborates on polar biogeography and endemism.

  • Dr Peter Davis, British Antarctic Survey, UK

    Dr Peter Davis

    Peter Davis is a physical oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey who specialises in observing the ocean beneath Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves. His research focuses primarily on high-latitude ice-ocean interactions and their impact on ice shelf basal melting. He has a particular specialism in using access holes, made through many hundreds of metres of ice, to understand the turbulent ocean processes that transport heat towards the ice base and set the rate at which ice shelves are melted from below. In recognition of his work to understand how, and how fast, the ocean is melting the underside of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, Peter was honoured by TIME magazine as one of the world's 100 most influential people in 2023.

Schedule

Chair

Professor Michael Meredith, British Antarctic Survey, UK

Professor Mike Meredith

British Antarctic Survey, UK

09:00-09:10 Welcome by the Royal Society and organising committee
Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMG

Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMG

British Antarctic Survey, UK

09:10-09:30 Setting the scene: why extreme events and why Antarctica?
Professor Martin Siegert

Professor Martin Siegert

University of Exeter, UK

09:30-09:50 Oceans - speaker to be confirmed
09:50-10:10 Extreme events in the Antarctic cryosphere: state of play

Recent decades have seen a series of extreme events in the Antarctic cryosphere. Amongst these have been collapse of ice shelves, surface melting and ponding on margins of the ice sheet, and large snowfall anomalies. Some of these events have been linked in cascades with links to extreme events in the ocean and atmosphere, and themselves have impacts felt beyond the cryosphere. The geological record of ice sheets provides evidence of other extreme events that affected the Antarctic cryosphere, such as abrupt thinning and retreat intervals. Here we provide a summary of the state of knowledge of Antarctic cryosphere extreme events, including an update of improvements in understanding, and assessments of events occurring since the Siegert et al (2023) paper on Antarctic Extreme Events.

Professor Michael Bentley

Professor Michael Bentley

Durham University, UK

10:10-10:30 Sea ice
Professor Alexander Haumann

Professor Alexander Haumann

Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany

10:30-11:00 Discussion
11:00-11:30 Break

Chair

Dr Thomas Bracegirdle, British Antarctic Survey, UK

Dr Tom Bracegirdle

British Antarctic Survey, UK

11:30-11:50 Atmosphere
Dr Kyle Clem

Dr Kyle Clem

Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

11:50-12:10 Ecosystems
Dr Jennifer Freer

Dr Jennifer Freer

British Antarctic Survey, UK

12:10-12:30 Discussion
14:00-14:20 Past sea level jumps
Professor Sarah Woodroffe

Professor Sarah Woodroffe

Durham University, UK

14:20-14:40 Ice cores - speaker to be confirmed
14:40-15:00 Palaeoceanography
15:00-15:30 Discussion

Chair

Professor Kate Hendry, British Antarctic Survey, UK

Professor Kate Hendry

British Antarctic Survey, UK

09:00-09:20 How will ice shelf melting respond to a warming climate?

Ice shelves, the floating extensions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, are melted from below by the ocean. Increased ice shelf melting is the main mechanism by which Antarctica currently contributes to global sea level rise. As melt rates are sensitive to temperature, salinity, and circulation in tiny pockets of the Southern Ocean, predicting how they might respond to climate change is not straightforward. Projecting future ice shelf melting is at the forefront of coupled Earth system modelling, as most climate and ocean models still do not include ice shelves at all. This talk will summarise what is and is not known about how ice-ocean interaction may respond to climate change. In some regions, such as the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, relatively warm ocean water already accesses the ice shelves. However, climate change is expected to make these regions warmer still, by increasing the volume of warm water flowing onshore. Other regions, such as Antarctica's largest ice shelves, the Ross and Filchner-Ronne, are currently bathed in cold water and melt rates are stable. Unfortunately, models predict that with sufficient climate change, these cavities could suddenly flip into a warm state similar to the Amundsen Sea. While some changes are likely already committed, other changes may or may not be triggered, depending how much the climate warms. Therefore, the trajectory of future carbon emissions will likely have a large impact on Antarctica's long-term contribution to sea level rise.

Dr Kaitlin Naughten

Dr Kaitlin Naughten

British Antarctic Survey, UK

09:20-09:40 Sea ice
Professor Marylin Raphael

Professor Marylin Raphael

University of California Los Angeles, USA

09:40-10:00 Atmospheric events
Dr Irina Gorodetskaya

Dr Irina Gorodetskaya

CIIMAR - Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research of the University of Porto, Portugal

10:00-10:30 Discussion
10:30-11:00 Break

Chair

Professor Nerilie Abram

Australian National University, Australia

11:00-11:20 Ocean as a carbon source or sink
Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRS

Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRS

University of East Anglia, UK

11:20-11:40 Vulnerable ecosystems - speaker to be confirmed
11:40-12:00 Sea level
Professor Tamsin Edwards

Professor Tamsin Edwards

King's College London, UK

12:00-12:30 Discussion

Chair

blank avatar

Mr Rod Downie

The Worldwide Fund for Nature, UK

13:30-13:50 Southern Ocean Observing System
Dr Sian Henley

Dr Sian Henley

University of Edinburgh, UK

13:50-14:10 Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
Dr Susie Grant

Dr Susie Grant

British Antarctic Survey, UK

14:10-14:30 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - speaker to be confirmed
14:30-15:00 Discussion
15:00-15:30 Break
15:30-15:50 Adapting Southern Ocean ecosystem-based fisheries management to extreme events

The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is responsible for the conservation of Antarctic marine ecosystems, yet extreme events - such as marine heatwaves and storms - are disrupting these ecosystems, posing new challenges to CCAMLR's ecosystem-based fisheries management approach. While some progress has been made by CCAMLR in considering extreme events, practical action is lacking. This review examines current progress in integrating extreme events into ecosystem-based management and identifies critical gaps in understanding, predicting and responding to such events. Recent studies have demonstrated that extreme events significantly impact species' habitats, distribution, and key demographic factors such as breeding success and mortality rates, making it essential to incorporate the consideration of such events into management strategies. Drawing on recommendations from a recent CCAMLR workshop, we proposed improved approaches to data collection and analysis, including the development of predictive models that enhance understanding of the impacts of extreme events. We explore the integration of extreme event data into fisheries monitoring, the need for adaptive management policies and prioritisation of long-term resilience, and the strengthening of collaboration among relevant scientific disciplines, stakeholders, and policymakers. A more comprehensive and dynamic approach that explicitly incorporates extreme events is crucial for ensuring the sustainable management of Antarctic marine ecosystems amid the challenges posed by climate change.

Dr Rachel Cavanagh

Dr Rachel Cavanagh

British Antarctic Survey, UK

15:50-16:10 International Panel on Climate Change and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Professor Hans-Otto Pörtner

Professor Hans-Otto Pörtner

Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany

16:10-16:30 Antarctic tipping points: implications for UK coastal sea-level rise and adaptation planning

Sea-level rise associated with warming of the climate system is characterised by long-term commitment for many centuries, with future ice sheet changes the dominant threat on these timescales. The current Environment Agency climate change allowances for UK sea-level rise by 2125 range from 1.0-1.6, depending on geographic region, with an H++ value of 1.9m for risk-averse decision makers (eg nuclear energy sector, long-lived infrastructure planning). However, poorly understood ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica could lead to global and UK sea-level rise of more than 10m by 2300, as highlighted in the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Even in the absence of such processes being triggered, the UK coastline is expected to see at least 1-2m of local sea-level rise by 2300, with strong regional variations. Given the large uncertainty in both global and UK sea-level rise, we present a flexible sea-level storylines framework that is designed to promote a risk-based assessment of future adaptation options in coastal planning. By combining our framework with a state-of-the-art UK flood model, we generate a first-order picture of the scale of the adaptation challenge under a range of future sea-level rise outcomes. Uncertainty in future projections, particularly those associated with Antarctic ice sheet instability processes, provide strong motivation for detailed observational monitoring and development of early warning indicators.

Dr Matt Palmer

Dr Matt Palmer

Met Office Hadley Centre, UK

16:30-17:00 Discussion
17:00-17:15 Closing remarks - speaker to be confirmed