Global impacts of climate extremes in the polar regions: is Antarctica reaching a tipping point?
Also in “ Scientific meeting”
Discussion meeting organised by Professor Katherine Hendry, Dame Jane Francis DCMG FRS, Professor Michael Meredith, Professor Geraint Tarling, Dr Alexander Brearley, Professor Dominic Hodgson, and Dr Peter Davis.
The past two years have witnessed unprecedented extremes in the Antarctic linked to climate change, including exceptionally low winter sea ice and accelerated melting of ice. This meeting will bring together scientists and stakeholders for an urgent discussion on what we know about these recent events, whether they represent a climatic tipping point, and what the global impact of crossing such a threshold will be.
Programme
The programme, including speaker biographies and abstracts, will be available soon. Please note the programme may be subject to change.
Poster session
There will be a poster session from 5pm on Monday 29 September 2025. If you would like to present a poster, please submit your proposed title, abstract (up to 200 words), author list, and the name of the proposed presenter and institution no later than 31 August 2025.
Attending the event
This event is intended for researchers in relevant fields
- Free to attend
- Both virtual and in-person attendance is available. Advance registration is essential. Please follow the link register
- Lunch is available on both days of the meeting for an optional £25 per day. There are plenty of places to eat nearby if you would prefer to purchase food offsite. Participants are welcome to bring their own lunch to the meeting
Enquiries: Scientific Programmes team.
Organisers
Schedule
Chair
Professor Mike Meredith
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Professor Mike Meredith
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Professor Michael Meredith is an ocean/climate scientist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), and Professorial Fellow in Oceanography at Murray Edwards College, University of Cambridge. He created and led the Polar Oceans team at BAS, which has research foci on determining the role of the polar oceans on global climate, the ice sheets, and the interdisciplinary ocean system. He is a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, and a NERC Individual Merit Promotion (Band 2) scientist. He was the inaugural chair of the Southern Ocean Observing System, and served as Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In 2018, Michael was awarded the Tinker-Muse Prize for Science and Policy in Antarctica, and the Challenger Medal for contributions for Marine Science. In 2021, Michael was elected to serve as President of the Challenger Society for Marine Science, the UK's pre-eminent learned body for research of the ocean.
| 09:00-09:10 |
Welcome by the Royal Society and organising committee
Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMGBritish Antarctic Survey, UK
Dame Jane Francis FRS DCMGBritish Antarctic Survey, UK Jane is Director of the British Antarctic Survey. She is involved with international polar organisations, such as the Antarctic Treaty and European Polar Board, and on several advisory boards of national polar programmes. Jane Francis is a geologist by training, with research interests in past climates, especially the change from greenhouse to icehouse climates in the polar regions over the past 100 million years. She has undertaken over 15 scientific expeditions to the Arctic and Antarctica in search of fossil forests and information about climates of the past. Jane was appointed Dame Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George (DCMG) in recognition of services to UK polar science and diplomacy. She was awarded the UK Polar Medal, the Royal Geographical Society’s Patron’s Medal, the 2022 Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation Award for Planetary Health and is a Fellow of the Royal Society. |
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| 09:10-09:30 |
Setting the scene: why extreme events and why Antarctica?
Professor Martin SiegertUniversity of Exeter, UK
Professor Martin SiegertUniversity of Exeter, UK Martin Siegert is a glaciologist, geophysicist and climate scientist. He uses geophysical measurements to investigate the flow and form of large ice sheets, and to understand processes operating in the past, now and in the future. He has published on subglacial environments, including on subglacial lakes, and on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet and continent. He has been a UK delegate to SCAR, and has led several SCAR activities and programmes. He was awarded the 2013 Martha T Muse Prize for Antarctic Science and Policy. He led the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London between 2014 and 2022 and is now Deputy Vice Chancellor (Cornwall) at Exeter University. |
| 09:30-09:50 |
Oceans
Dr Karina Von SchuckmannMercator Ocean, France
Dr Karina Von SchuckmannMercator Ocean, France |
| 09:50-10:10 |
Extreme events in the Antarctic cryosphere: state of play
Recent decades have seen a series of extreme events in the Antarctic cryosphere. Amongst these have been collapse of ice shelves, surface melting and ponding on margins of the ice sheet, and large snowfall anomalies. Some of these events have been linked in cascades with links to extreme events in the ocean and atmosphere, and themselves have impacts felt beyond the cryosphere. The geological record of ice sheets provides evidence of other extreme events that affected the Antarctic cryosphere, such as abrupt thinning and retreat intervals. Here we provide a summary of the state of knowledge of Antarctic cryosphere extreme events, including an update of improvements in understanding, and assessments of events occurring since the Siegert et al (2023) paper on Antarctic Extreme Events. 
Professor Michael BentleyDurham University, UK
Professor Michael BentleyDurham University, UK Michael Bentley is a polar geoscientist with wide research interests but a core focus on the past and future behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and on trying to reduce uncertainty in projections of future risk of sea level rise. He is particularly interested in how the Antarctic Ice Sheet has responded to period of climate warming, and have undertaken over 20 polar field seasons, mostly using geomorphology and innovate dating techniques to tackle the problem. |
| 10:10-10:30 |
Sea ice
Professor Alexander HaumannAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany
Professor Alexander HaumannAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany |
| 10:30-11:00 |
Discussion
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| 11:00-11:30 |
Break
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Chair
Dr Tom Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Dr Tom Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Dr Tom Bracegirdle is deputy Science Leader of the Atmosphere, Ice and Climate Team at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). After completing a PhD in Meteorology in 2006 from the University of Reading, Dr Bracegirdle has been conducting research on polar climate and atmospheric dynamics at BAS. His main interests are polar storms and extreme weather events, large-scale atmospheric circulation, troposphere-stratosphere interactions, climate model evaluation, and quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate model projections. He currently leads a major NERC-funded project 'Drivers and Impacts of Extreme Weather Events in Antarctica' (ExtAnt). He also has leading roles internationally in the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA). More broadly, he is involved in a number of activities aimed at communicating the implications of polar climate change to the wider community, ranging from policymakers to the general public.
| 11:30-11:50 |
Extreme events in the Antarctic atmosphere: regional-impacts with global implications
Weather and climate conditions over Antarctica are among the most extreme and variable on Earth. Over the ice sheet, daily temperature anomalies of 10-15°C are a frequent occurrence, while over middle latitudes, such anomalies would often be record-setting. Thus, "extreme" climate events in the Antarctic are truly remarkable. In this delicately balanced polar environment, where snow versus rain or temperatures just below versus just above the freezing point are crucial to its stability, such extreme events can have severe impacts that may lead to tipping points being passed. Over the past decade, our understanding of extreme weather and climate events in Antarctica, across a range of timescales has grown tremendously. Multiple new record-setting, or even record shattering, high-temperature and high-precipitation events have occurred all the main regions of Antarctica, from low-lying regions on the Antarctic Peninsula to the high elevation interior of the ice sheet. Recent studies have highlighted the crucial role of such extreme precipitation events (comprising just a few days of the year) in dominating Antarctica's annual surface mass balance, and in turn, Antarctica's year-to-year contribution to global sea level rise. Extreme precipitation events often occur with "atmospheric rivers", which also bring extreme warmth as the moist airmasses often originate from warm lower latitudes. Over low-lying coastal ice shelves, temperatures can and do rise above freezing during such events, causing surface melt, which is a major concern for for ice shelves that are close to breaking point. Current research is shedding new light on the drivers of these extreme events - with growing evidence that teleconnections stemming from tropical variability play a key role - along with the range of impacts, including the compounding role of anthropogenic climate change. However, significant unknowns still exist. This talk will set the scene for discussions on the impacts of extreme atmospheric events across different disciplines and their role in pushing parts of the Antarctic environment past major tipping points, wait far-reaching global consequences.
Dr Kyle ClemVictoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Dr Kyle ClemVictoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Kyle Clem is a Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at Victoria University of Wellington. His research focuses on Southern Hemisphere climate dynamics, with a particular interest in tropical-Antarctic teleconnections. He uses observations and climate model simulations to examine the role of tropical convection in triggering large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that result in extreme weather and climate events in Antarctica. One key area of research is determining what mechanisms generate atmospheric circulation patterns that transport extreme heat and moisture from sub-tropical latitudes to Antarctica, as these are often the most impactful events in terms of extreme temperature, precipitation, and surface melt. These patterns often occur from Rossby waves forced from tropical variability, highlighting that climate change and its impacts are globally interconnected, and what happens in the tropics can have major implications for Antarctica. Kyle serves as the Editor for the annual State of the Climate Report on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, is the lead-author of the Meteorology and Climate of Antarctica chapter in the recently published Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere monograph, and is a member of the SCAR AntClimNow Research Programme. |
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| 11:50-12:10 |
Extreme events and Antarctic ecosystems: setting the scene
Antarctic ecosystems are of global significance. Not only do they contribute to some of the most uniquely rich, endemic and productive ecosystems on Earth, but they are also integral to fisheries and global climate regulation. Polar species - whether pelagic or benthic, terrestrial or marine, sea-ice associated or open water, plant or animal - face ongoing impacts from long-term climate change and from other anthropogenic stressors (eg fishing, non-indigenous species and human activities). Now they face an additional and growing threat from extreme climate and weather events such as heatwaves, sea-ice anomalies and ice scour, snowstorms, increased rainfall, wind and drought. Using examples from both terrestrial and marine Antarctic ecosystems, we discuss the types of extreme events that have and are likely to continue to cause ecological impacts. In doing so, we highlight the sensitivities to environmental change that occur at individual, population, assemblage and ecosystem levels. We also identify major knowledge gaps in terms of understanding responses, including for the keystone species Antarctic krill, as well as the global ramifications for ocean nutrient supply and carbon sequestration. As extreme events are predicted to intensify in frequency and magnitude, we must look beyond current methods of post-event reporting to the development of early warning systems and continual monitoring. Implementing this will require bold, climate-smart management that is underpinned by research which created a step change in our baseline understanding of climate-change impacts beyond long-term means, and which incorporates interactions, thresholds, forecasts and contingencies at multiple temporal scales.
Dr Jennifer FreerBritish Antarctic Survey, UK
Dr Jennifer FreerBritish Antarctic Survey, UK Jen Freer is an ecologist within the Ecosystems Team at the British Antarctic Survey and a Research Associate of Darwin College, Cambridge. She is interested in how the 3-dimensional environment of the ocean influences the distribution and biogeography of polar marine species. She typically uses data-driven models to understand the relationship between species and their environment, and to predict their distribution into new areas or under future climate conditions. Jen has applied these methods to many species including Arctic copepods and Antarctic krill. Jen co-leads the ecosystems work package of the NERC funded National Capability programme BIOPOLE, and the modelling working group of a new SCAR (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research) Fish Action Group, SCARFISH. More broadly, Jen has been involved in a number of creative storytelling projects from podcasts to science-poetry workshops, aiming to increase people's sense of connectedness to polar and deep-sea environments. |
| 12:10-12:30 |
Discussion
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| 14:00-14:20 |
Antarctic melt and sea-level rise during past warm periods
Warm periods in Antarctica over the past 3.3 Ma caused jumps in global sea level which are recorded in far-field sea level records and ocean proxies. The largest seas-level contributions from Antarctica during global warm periods were during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period and Marine Isotope Stages 31, 11 and 5e. A more recent example of a sub-millennial rapid sea-level jump is Meltwater Pulse 1A, which occurred around 14 ka BP during the last deglaciation. These past warm periods, their sea-level contributions and the most recent sea-level jump are policy-relevant as they provide accessible examples of how the Antarctic Ice Sheet responded to past warm-than-present global temperatures, comparable to those projected for the coming decades to centuries. Understanding past ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change also informs process-based models which project Antarctic ice-sheet response to future climate change. In this talk I will discuss the most recent research into global mean sea-level rise during warm periods of the past 3.3 Ma and the contribution of Antarctic mass loss to mean sea-level rise during this period. I will also consider the Antarctic contribution to periods of rapid sea-level rise during the last deglaciation (including Meltwater Pulse 1A) and ongoing debates around Antarctic contribution to Late Holocene, pre-industrial global mean sea-level change. 
Professor Sarah WoodroffeDurham University, UK
Professor Sarah WoodroffeDurham University, UK Sarah Woodroffe is a Professor of Physical Geography at Durham University. Her research is focused upon reconstructing past sea level changes using microfossils, in order to answer questions about ice sheet history, crustal response to surface loading and predictions of future sea level change in vulnerable coastal areas. She works on sea level records from key locations far from the centres of former glaciation (eg Indian Ocean, Australia, South Africa) which provide information on the long-term melting histories of the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Her research aims to enhance accuracy and precision of sea-level reconstructions and to allow development of sea-level records from historically poorly studied locations such as low and high altitudes. |
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| 14:20-14:40 |
Ice cores as archives of extreme and abrupt climate change in Antarctica
Ice cores are unparalleled records of past climate change. As windows into the past they contextualize anthropogenic climate change, offer glimpses of future climate through partial analogues, and provide a proving ground to test our models under very different and sometimes extreme climate states. In this talk I will present some recent advances in our understanding of past climate variability from Antarctic ice cores with a particular focus on abrupt climate change and past warm periods. First, I will briefly review the challenges associated with extracting the signal of anthropogenic climate change from the background, natural variability recorded by ice cores over the last millennium. Despite the difficulties in disentangling natural and anthropogenic climate change in Antarctica, a critical point has recently emerged that climate models underestimate both modes of variability. Second, I will analyse past intervals of relatively warm and stable climate (interglacials) in Antarctica to provide a framework to discuss what could be considered “extreme” states of climate from the ice core perspective. Here, the ice core record yields several partial analogues for future climate change in Antarctica. In particular, temperature “overshoots” at the onset of some interglacials (associated with rapid, yet modest rises in greenhouse gases) offer some of our best opportunities to study the response of Antarctica to intervals of elevated temperature. Finally, I will highlight recent ice core studies that provide strong evidence for a centennial-scale retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the Weddell Sea region during the early Holocene (about 8,000 years ago). This retreat is thought to be driven by a rapid ungrounding and most likely indicates a type of tipping point behaviour that has also been simulated by some models. If this same type of tipping point is breached in other regions of Antarctica currently susceptible to ungrounding, such as the Amundsen Sea, it is would greatly increase the sea-level contribution from Antarctica we will have committed to over the coming centuries to millennia. |
| 14:40-15:00 |
Palaeoceanography
Professor Katherine AllenUniversity of Maine, USA
Professor Katherine AllenUniversity of Maine, USA |
| 15:00-15:30 |
Discussion
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| 15:30-16:00 |
Break
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Chair
Professor Kate Hendry
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Professor Kate Hendry
British Antarctic Survey, UK
Professor Kate Hendry is a chemical oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey, and an honorary professor at the Universities of Bristol and East Anglia. Her research interests surround the impact on marine nutrient cycling of climate change in the polar regions.
Kate has published over 90 papers in international journals, and has won almost £5M in grant funding as Principal Investigator, and collaborated on several other national and international projects. She won the Geological Society of London Bigsby Medal in 2025 for services to geosciences, the EAG Houtermans medal in 2016, and a Challenge Society fellowship in 2012.
Kate is Chair of Antarctic Science Ltd, which runs the journal Antarctic Science, and the Antarctic Science International Bursary Scheme. She is vice chair of the UK Arctic and Antarctic Partnership, and is the geosciences representative in the UK National Committee for Antarctic Research (UKNCAR). She is honorary secretary of the Challenger Society for Marine Science, and established their Equity, Diversity, Inclusivity and Accessibility working group.
| 09:00-09:20 |
How will ice shelf melting respond to a warming climate?
Ice shelves, the floating extensions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, are melted from below by the ocean. Increased ice shelf melting is the main mechanism by which Antarctica currently contributes to global sea level rise. As melt rates are sensitive to temperature, salinity, and circulation in tiny pockets of the Southern Ocean, predicting how they might respond to climate change is not straightforward. Projecting future ice shelf melting is at the forefront of coupled Earth system modelling, as most climate and ocean models still do not include ice shelves at all. This talk will summarise what is and is not known about how ice-ocean interaction may respond to climate change. In some regions, such as the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, relatively warm ocean water already accesses the ice shelves. However, climate change is expected to make these regions warmer still, by increasing the volume of warm water flowing onshore. Other regions, such as Antarctica's largest ice shelves, the Ross and Filchner-Ronne, are currently bathed in cold water and melt rates are stable. Unfortunately, models predict that with sufficient climate change, these cavities could suddenly flip into a warm state similar to the Amundsen Sea. While some changes are likely already committed, other changes may or may not be triggered, depending how much the climate warms. Therefore, the trajectory of future carbon emissions will likely have a large impact on Antarctica's long-term contribution to sea level rise. 
Dr Kaitlin NaughtenBritish Antarctic Survey, UK
Dr Kaitlin NaughtenBritish Antarctic Survey, UK Kaitlin Naughten is an ice, ocean, and climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey. She develops models to simulate interactions between the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the broader climate system. Kaitlin's research focuses on how ice shelf-ocean interactions change in responds to a warming climate. She studies warm ice shelf cavities which could get warmer (eg the Amundsen Sea) as well as cold cavities which could suddenly flip to a warm state (eg the Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves). Her research on West Antarctic ice shelf melting was the #7 most covered climate study of 2023 by the international media (Carbon Brief). Kaitlin is a member of the core development team for the UK Earth System Model, the world's first global climate model to include an Antarctic Ice Sheet fully coupled to the ocean. |
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| 09:20-09:40 |
Antarctic sea ice: future projections and uncertainties
Antarctic sea ice, after enjoying a period of sustained, steady growth, supplemented by several above average sea ice extents in winter and summer over the satellite-observed era has, since 2016, apparently transitioned to a period of sharply reduced sea ice extent (SIE), manifested by extremely low SIE in summer (2017, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) and extremely low SIE in winter 2023, 2024 and 2025 (projected). Such unexpected behavior of the Antarctic sea ice system is not reproduced in climate models, which may indicate some major deficiencies in our understanding and in the skill of projections. However, it has prompted the questions - is this a short-term change, or has there been a structural change in the sea ice system? Is this abrupt change associated with natural variability or a forced signal related to anthropogenic activities? To begin answer these questions, we place the present SIE variability within the context of SIE variability for the 20th century using an ensemble of SIE reconstructed using Bayesian statistics. We query the characteristics of the SIE to find out if the variability that we see fits the picture of structural change. Results indicate that there has been a structural change in the Antarctic sea ice system, specifically that SIE no longer reverts to the mean. Instead, it has become a system characterized by extremes. We discuss what that means for the future of Antarctic sea ice and the ecosystems which it supports and how certain are we about it. 
Professor Marylin RaphaelUniversity of California Los Angeles, USA
Professor Marylin RaphaelUniversity of California Los Angeles, USA Professor Marilyn Raphael is a physical geographer interested in climate variability and change in the high latitude Southern Hemisphere. Her work focuses on Antarctic sea ice variability, specifically the way in which the sea ice and the largescale atmospheric circulation interact, thereby creating potential for prediction of Antarctic climate change at the seasonal, interannual and decadal timescales. The results of her research have implications for the Antarctic climate, global climate change and the global, societal response. Marilyn is a Professor of Geography at the University of California, Los Angeles and former President of the American Association of Geographers. Marilyn is also a Member of the US National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Member of the American Philosophical Society. She is co-Chair of the SCAR expert group, Antarctic Sea ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt). In this role she promotes research on Antarctic sea ice observations and modeling and coordinates the efforts of the international science community bringing together expertise on the observational and modeling aspects of the climate. |
| 09:40-10:00 |
Atmospheric events
Dr Irina GorodetskayaCIIMAR - Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research of the University of Porto, Portugal
Dr Irina GorodetskayaCIIMAR - Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research of the University of Porto, Portugal |
| 10:00-10:30 |
Discussion
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| 10:30-11:00 |
Break
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Chair
Professor Nerilie Abram
Australian Antarctic Division, Australia
Professor Nerilie Abram
Australian Antarctic Division, Australia
Professor Nerilie Abram is the Chief Scientist for the Australian Antarctic Program. Her research has used Antarctic ice cores to understand how Earth's climate behaved naturally in the past, and how human-caused climate warming is now changing Antarctica and its impacts on Australia. She has completed five expeditions to Antarctica, including leading the ice drilling camps for Australia Denman Terrestrial Campaign in 2023/24. Prior to commencing her role as Chief Scientist, she was based at the Australian National University and was a Deputy Director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science. She was a coordinating lead author for the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report into the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and will also serve as a coordinating lead author for the IPCC 7th Assessment Report. In 2024 she was elected as a fellow of the Australian Academy of Science.
| 11:00-11:20 |
Ocean as a carbon source or sink
Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRSUniversity of East Anglia, UK
Professor Corinne Le Quéré CBE FRSUniversity of East Anglia, UK Professor Corinne Le Quéré FRS CBE, is Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia, where she conducts research on the interactions between the carbon cycle and climate change, particularly those mediated by the world’s oceans. She leads two projects in the NERC’s programme on the Role of the Southern Ocean in the Earth System (RoSES), one examining Southern Ocean CO2 variability in recent decades, one exploring its evolution this century. More broadly, she spearheaded the development of marine carbon-cycle models with new ways to represent plankton diversity and ecology. She also led for over a decade the annual update of the ‘global carbon budget’, an international effort to keep track of global carbon emissions and their fate in the environment, and authored three assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). |
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| 11:20-11:40 |
Vulnerable ecosystems
Dr Michelle Taylor
Dr Michelle Taylor |
| 11:40-12:00 |
Sea level
Professor Tamsin EdwardsKing's College London, UK
Professor Tamsin EdwardsKing's College London, UK Professor Tamsin Edwards is a climate scientist specialising in quantifying the uncertainties of climate model predictions, particularly for the ice sheet and glacier contributions to sea level rise. She was a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report published in 2021. |
| 12:00-12:30 |
Discussion
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Chair
Mr Rod Downie
The Worldwide Fund for Nature, UK
Mr Rod Downie
The Worldwide Fund for Nature, UK
| 13:30-13:50 |
Southern Ocean observations to meet policy and societal requirements
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean provide for the world’s human population in multiple ways. Effective governance, with adequate environmental protection, is required to sustain these services and functions, including climate regulation and the maintenance of global ocean health and productivity. Such governance must be underpinned by scientific evidence, much of which requires observational data from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) is the leading international organisation coordinating the collection and dissemination of observational data from the Southern Ocean. By collaborating across geographic, disciplinary and career stage boundaries, SOOS enables and mobilises the international community to collect and use high-quality Southern Ocean data for scientific, policy and educational purposes. In this talk, I will outline the work that SOOS does in various policy spheres, including the Antarctic Treaty System, the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and UN Oceans. I will highlight the importance of robust and representative data in underpinning evidence-based decision making and of taking an equitable and inclusive approach in these international contexts. I will also discuss some of the challenges and opportunities for scientists of all career stages engaging in the policy space. 
Dr Sian HenleyUniversity of Edinburgh, UK
Dr Sian HenleyUniversity of Edinburgh, UK Dr Sian Henley is a Reader in Marine Science at the University of Edinburgh. She has a diverse range of research interests from climate and environmental change in the polar oceans to climate change impacts on children worldwide. Her research in the polar regions focuses on marine biogeochemistry and ecosystem functioning in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Sian is active at the science-policy interface with a focus on Earth’s polar regions, making significant contributions to high-profile policy events such as the UN Climate Change Conferences COP26, COP27, COP28 and COP29 and the UN Ocean Conferences 2022 and 2025. Sian currently serves on the International Advisory Committee for the UN Ocean Decade Coordination Centre for the Southern Ocean Region, the UK National Committee for the Antarctica In Sync initiative, and was Co-Chair of the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) 2022-2025. In addition to her wide-ranging research, Sian is a passionate lecturer, educator and communicator on issues around climate and environmental change and sustainable development. |
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| 13:50-14:10 |
Providing policy-relevant scientific advice to the Antarctic Treaty System - the role of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)
The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) initiates, develops and coordinates high quality international scientific research in the Antarctic region, and on the role of the Antarctic region in the Earth system. SCAR also provides objective and independent scientific advice to the Antarctic Treaty System and other organisation such as the UNFCCC and IPCC on issues of science and conservation. The Antarctic Treaty Parties have made specific requests to SCAR for updates on the state on the Antarctic climate and on the best available scientific information on climate change and its impacts, to support their decision-making. Warming and int he increased frequency, severity and duration of extreme events in the near term will mean that many terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems are at very high or high risks of losing biodiversity (IPCC AR6). This underscores an urgent need for robust scientific advice to inform policy decision-making, particularly on the conservation of Antarctic biodiversity. Extreme climate and weather events such as record low sea ice extent, heatwaves and the collapse of ice shelves will also present new challenges for the management of human activities in Antarctica. We showcase SCAR's work that synthesises complex scientific findings on climate extremes and their impacts, communicates accessible information, and delivers actionable advice to the Antarctic Treaty System, including through the regularly updates SCAR Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment reports. 
Chandrika NathSCAR, UK
Chandrika NathSCAR, UK Dr Chandrika Nath has over 20 years’ experience of working at the science/policy interface in a wide variety of national and international contexts. A former glaciologist, she is currently Executive Director of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the leading global organisation supporting collaboration in Antarctic Research and providing advice to the Antarctic Treaty System. With an international membership of 46 nations and 9 scientific unions, SCAR plays a leading role in facilitating international scientific collaboration in Antarctic Research, coordinating over 30 research groups across all disciplines and organising the Antarctic community’s most well attended international conference every two years. It also plays a key role in providing objective advice to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, the Committee on Environmental Protection and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). Prior to joining SCAR, Dr Nath was Acting Head of the UK Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST), an office providing scientific advice to Members of both Houses of Parliament. She has briefed UK policymakers on a wide range of areas spanning environment, energy, security, ICT and international development. Dr Nath has a keen interest in capacity building and has worked with parliaments and researchers across the world to support uptake of research evidence in policy-making. Prior to working for Parliament, Chandrika worked as a glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey from 1998-2002. She has a PhD in High Energy Physics from Oxford University. |
| 14:10-14:30 |
Adapting Southern Ocean ecosystem-based fisheries management to extreme events
The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is responsible for the conservation of Antarctic marine ecosystems, yet extreme events - such as marine heatwaves and storms - are disrupting these ecosystems, posing new challenges to CCAMLR's ecosystem-based fisheries management approach. While some progress has been made by CCAMLR in considering extreme events, practical action is lacking. This review examines current progress in integrating extreme events into ecosystem-based management and identifies critical gaps in understanding, predicting and responding to such events. Recent studies have demonstrated that extreme events significantly impact species' habitats, distribution, and key demographic factors such as breeding success and mortality rates, making it essential to incorporate the consideration of such events into management strategies. Drawing on recommendations from a recent CCAMLR workshop, we proposed improved approaches to data collection and analysis, including the development of predictive models that enhance understanding of the impacts of extreme events. We explore the integration of extreme event data into fisheries monitoring, the need for adaptive management policies and prioritisation of long-term resilience, and the strengthening of collaboration among relevant scientific disciplines, stakeholders, and policymakers. A more comprehensive and dynamic approach that explicitly incorporates extreme events is crucial for ensuring the sustainable management of Antarctic marine ecosystems amid the challenges posed by climate change. 
Dr Rachel CavanaghBritish Antarctic Survey, UK
Dr Rachel CavanaghBritish Antarctic Survey, UK Dr Rachel Cavanagh is an Ecosystem Scientist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) with over two decades of experience encompassing interdisciplinary research, international programme leadership and technical advice for policy. Rachel holds a BSc in Applied Zoology and PhD in Population Ecology, and before joining BAS was Executive Officer of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Shark Specialist Group, leading efforts in global shark conservation and management. With a strong interest in the role of science in informing policy, Rachel's current research is focused on integrating climate change considerations into marine conservation and management. Rachel is a Scientific Advisor on the UK delegation to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resource (CCAMLR), Co-Chief Officer of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Flagship Scientific Research Programme Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System and serves on SCAR's Standing Committee on the Antarctic Treaty System. |
| 14:30-15:00 |
Discussion
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| 15:00-15:30 |
Break
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| 15:30-15:50 |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - speaker to be confirmed
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| 15:50-16:10 |
Antarctic climate change and associated impacts embedded into policy relevant concepts discussed by IPCC WGII AR6, IPBES, and WBGU
Antarctic climate change affects the cryosphere as well as terrestrial and ocean life. Cryosphere impacts have global implications, by affecting the global ocean conveyor and shaping sea level rise. Research on organisms and ecosystems allows testing unifying principles of effect and their specific implications for Antarctic life. Climate change drivers in the ocean entail ocean warming, acidification and loss of oxygen due to warming and enhanced stratification. These drivers individually and together affect ocean life. While some approaches compare the effect sizes of these individual drivers, other approaches strive to develop an integrative view for more realistic ecological projections. Temperature emerges as a master variable shaping the functioning of all life forms. Such functioning depends on the thermal performance curve as a reaction norm characterizing individual species and their life stages. Those principles also explain species vulnerability to climate change. Overlapping thermal performance curve as a reaction norm characterizing individual species and their life stages. Those principles also explain species vulnerability to climate change. Overlapping thermal performance curves characterize the temperature range at which species can co-exist at ecosystem level. The talk will put the drivers and their impacts into context and address how ocean oxygen and CO2 play a role in the thermal tolerance and performance of marine animal species. These findings indicate high vulnerability of Antarctic systems and have implications for Antarctic policy. Current debate focuses on conservation and associated spatial planning needs. Increasing economic and tourism pressures emphasize the need for future considerations of wider concepts such as Climate Resilient Development. * Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC; Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, IPBES; German Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU 
Professor Hans-Otto PörtnerAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany
Professor Hans-Otto PörtnerAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany Hans-Otto Pörtner is a researcher in marine ecophysiology and the impacts of climate change. He has established theory and evidence on effects of climate warming, ocean acidification, and hypoxia on marine animals and ecosystems. His efforts focus on linking biogeography and ecosystem functioning to molecular, biochemical and physiological mechanisms shaping organism tolerance and performance. In October 2015 he was elected Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II for its 6th assessment cycle. He is an elected member of the European Academy of Sciences, the German Advisory Council on Global Change and a Web of Science highly cited researcher 2018 award. |
| 16:10-16:30 |
Antarctic tipping points: implications for UK coastal sea-level rise and adaptation planning
Sea-level rise associated with warming of the climate system is characterised by long-term commitment for many centuries, with future ice sheet changes the dominant threat on these timescales. The current Environment Agency climate change allowances for UK sea-level rise by 2125 range from 1.0-1.6, depending on geographic region, with an H++ value of 1.9m for risk-averse decision makers (eg nuclear energy sector, long-lived infrastructure planning). However, poorly understood ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica could lead to global and UK sea-level rise of more than 10m by 2300, as highlighted in the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Even in the absence of such processes being triggered, the UK coastline is expected to see at least 1-2m of local sea-level rise by 2300, with strong regional variations. Given the large uncertainty in both global and UK sea-level rise, we present a flexible sea-level storylines framework that is designed to promote a risk-based assessment of future adaptation options in coastal planning. By combining our framework with a state-of-the-art UK flood model, we generate a first-order picture of the scale of the adaptation challenge under a range of future sea-level rise outcomes. Uncertainty in future projections, particularly those associated with Antarctic ice sheet instability processes, provide strong motivation for detailed observational monitoring and development of early warning indicators. 
Dr Matt PalmerMet Office Hadley Centre, UK
Dr Matt PalmerMet Office Hadley Centre, UK Dr Matt Palmer is a Science Fellow at the Met Office Hadley Centre and Associate Professor in Climate Science at the University of Bristol. His expertise includes observations and projections of sea level change, Earth's energy budget and ocean subsurface observations. Matt led the sea level work for the UK National Climate Projections (UKCP18) that included development of pioneering multi-century sea-level projections in response to stakeholder needs. He has worked on a variety of international projects providing sea level projections and observational analysis for other parts of the world. Matt was a Lead Author on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR6) where his contributions included leading the assessment of the global energy and sea level budgets. |
| 16:30-17:00 |
Discussion
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| 17:00-17:15 |
Closing remarks - speaker to be confirmed
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